nfl preseason plays & other stuff....

[AR182]

thought i would list my preseason plays in one thread & list any preseason systems that i come across.......

american bowl (i think that's what it's called)....

1.5*under 42 atl./indy.......

i expect jet lag to play a role in this game. the colts will play manning a few series before giving way to his backups, who are all unproven....brown,sorgi, and arth. i don't think these guys are that familiar with the offense.

vick got hurt last year in preseason (ankle) so i don't see him playing much either.
i think the falcons have better backups at qb but the surrounding players to all of these qbs will be 3rd or 4th string....so i can't see that many points being scored.



here are some pre-season systems that i got from a newsletter.....i thought that some might find interesting....

play on a home team off 2 straight losses.....since 1990 ats record is 69-53...57%

play on a pre-season team if they were shutout the week before....since 1991 ats record is 22-11-1....67%

play on the under after a team played in the hall of fame game...since 1997 ats record is 11-5....69%.


good luck.

 

[smurphy]

Good luck, AR! I can't seem to be able to reach any solid conclusion on this one.

 

[AR182]

thanks...murph.

if you come to the phoenix area to either see your dad or for business.....let me know...we can go catch a cardinal's game.......usually you can walk up to a window at game day & get good seats.


good luck this season.

 

[smurphy]

we better do it early, cuz after they start 6-0 they may begin selling out that high school stadium! :mj07:

 

[AR182]

i'm taking my wife to vegas for her birthday early tomorrow morning but wanted to post this play before i left.....

5*minn-3(125).........

with new ownership & tice looking for a new deal (contract runs out after this year) i believe the vikes will come out looking to set the tone, in front of the home crowd, for their upcoming season.

i also feel with their large depth at running back & with their qb rotation (culpepper, brad johnson, shaun hill), they will continually put pressure on the k.c. defense.

on the other hand from what i have read,some on the k.c. offense (shields,holmes, gonzalez) are hurting.....& think the k.c. will just go through the the typical pre-season motions.

additionally,other than green at qb, i'm not crazy about their back-ups of collins, huard, & killian.

good luck.

 

[gardenweasel]

you degenerate reprobate.......( i say that with the utmost love and respect...lol)...

glad to see you you up to your old tricks.....

all the best...lets have some fun this year...

 

[AR182]

hey, gw good to see that you're taking a break from the political forum.


pre-season...1-1 +3.35

friday....

1.5* u39 minn/jets
1.5* u37 cin/wash.

here is something that i read that i thought some might find interesting.....

since 1995. teams playing their 3rd pre-season game, & won their 2nd pre-season game vs. an opponent playing their 2nd game are 8-17 ats (32%).......play against atlanta falcons.

since 1995, in week 2 of pre-season home team coming off of home loss in the previous game are 13-6 ats (68%)......play houston texans & indy colts.

good luck.

 

[smurphy]

Thanks for that info. Nice call on Vikes-Chiefs - that's pretty much exactly how it played out. GL this week!

 

[wcb4]

good luck ar. appreciate your posts. :mj14:

 

[AR182]

thanks wc & murph.....appreciate it.


this may be a sucker bet but i will take :

1.5* u42 n.o./pats........

i wasn't going to touch this game but after the total rose 3-4 points i figured i would jump in on the under.

just like in the regular season, belichick stresses defense in the preseason. in the last 3 years, the ?under? is 10-2 in n.e. last 12 preseason games.n.e. has also gone ?under? in 5 of their last 6 home games and 5 of their last 6 games off a su win.n.o. has gone ?under? in 4 of their last 5 week 2 pre-season games.

additionally n.o. & n.e. have a scheduled regular season game in november, so both teams might play this game conservatively

good luck.

 

[JCDunkDogs]

nice contrarian set up, and you make some good supporting arguments.

gl

 

[LUX]

GLTA!

 

[AR182]

handicapping is a funny business....last week while in vegas i went 4-1 in nflx....so far this week i'm 0-3......consistency is the key !!....& i'm striving for it.

sat. games....

7.5*det.-6.5.....imo this game sets up very similar to the minn/kc. game last week.det.will be trying to set the tone for this upcoming season in front of the home crowd.....mariucci (sp?) has said that he wants to start having a home field edge with this team & that sat's game is a good time to start that advantage.....he also said that he on sat. wants to make sure his team gets in the end zone & go after the opposing qb....cleve. is a hurting team...their top 2 running backs are probably out as well as some players in the 2ndary, & their 2nd string qb.i can't see detroit not covering this line...but we'll see (lol).

other games.....

1.5*o37 g.b./buff
1.5* car.+1
1.5*u38 s.f./den.


good luck.

 

[smurphy]

I didn't know you went to Vegas, AR! ...I'll be there in a bout a week for probably 10 days. Where did you stay?

GL on the picks. The totals have been a bitch lately.

 

[AR182]

murph,

we stayed at caesar's......the place is a dump !!!

as the futility continues....

1.5*miami+3.5
1.5*chi+7
1.5*s.f.+7
1.5*oak.-3

good luck.

 

[trolln4walii]

Wishing you all the best for another football season AR. Looking forward to your write-ups and all the wonderful info you share with us. With you tonight on the Raiders, Panthers, and the Broncos under. Lets cash in this evening