NFL Sunday system plays my way

[Superbear]

Jacksonville Jaguars - spread +10 (-110) x 1.5

Cincinnati Bengals - spread +7? (-140) x 1.5

Cincinnati Bengals - moneyline (+230) x .5

This one is a combination of 4 systems.

1. Go against the Boston Globe sportswriters consensus (this Fri everyone of these "experts" picked Tenn)

2. When a team has won 3 games in a row and has scored over 90 points in those three victories, you are supposed to bet against them their next start if they are laying points.

3. Look for teams that have scored a total of 90 points or more during any three consecutive games periods. The team is due for a low-scoring game. The play is to wager against any team that collectively scores a total of 90 or more points in three consecutive games. Teams who have a Fourth 90 have won 232 times and lost 313 times by the Las Vegas pointspread

San Diego Chargers - spread +10? (-150) x 1.5

New York Giants - spread +3? (-125) x 1.5

New York Giants - moneyline (+155) x .5

Chicago Bears - spread +7? (-140) x 1.5

Chicago Bears - moneyline (+205) x .5

I'l be back with the write-ups on these other games,...

 

[GM]

1. Gotta like that.

2 and 3. This one's mentioned in my systems (it's #36), though I don't have an accurate record for it. Tennessee is really throwing a curveball at this one though. Not only have they scored more than 90 pts in their past 3 games, they've scored over 30 pts in each of their past six games (the second of these six was a loss...but still...). So for three straight weeks they've been a "go-against" in this system (if losing does not negate the play)...yet they've covered all three times...and it's in play for a 4th consecutive week.

I've seen a lot of debate about this "over 90" system. Everyone's got a different take on it. Among the views I've seen on it...

1) Some say 90 pts in 3 games is all you need. It could be 50 in one, 31 in one, 10 in another...that's more than 90. Personally, I disagree with including this.

2) Some say 90 pts in 3 games, and a minimum of 30 in each game. That makes more sense.

3) Some say 90 pts in 3 games, and all must be wins.

4) Some say 90+, 30+ per, and all must be wins. Or all must be covers.

So many interpretations, I don't know what to believe. To top it off I've heard it said that it's only a play if the team they are playing against has scored fewer than 30 pts in THEIR 3 games. A team scoring less than 30 in 3 games happens almost never nowadays...but to also get matched up against a 90+ team at the same time...seems like a very remote possibility.

In any event, good luck on your plays.

 

[Superbear]

Before I go on to the reasoning with the other games lets finish with the 1st 2;

Bengals/KC

Dillon is not playing,...Rudy is,..he is a great rb so this makes the Bengals a "rushing" dog. Also the "time zone factor" gives them an advantage.

I don't think the Titans will take the Jags seriously. They know Jax sucks and are comming off a huge win over the Fish. They allready beat Jax 30 to 17 in Jax so they must think this is an easy game to win at home. Also another system comes into play here. The "short turnaround system" (if game 1 in a div game went to team 1 and went over, take team 2 and the under in the next game)

 

[GM]

I've gotta mention...I have also heard of and tracked the "short-turn-around system". It had a bad record in 2002 (1-5). But it is 2-0 so far this year.

Last year:

Week 11:
Jax/Hou went O/O
NO/Atl went O/U (the lone win)
Car/TB went U/U

Week 13:
Balt/Cin went U/U

Week 14:
NYG/Wash went O/O
Minn/GB went O/O


So far this year:

Week 8:
Car/NO went U/O (win)

Week 10:
Chi/Det went O/U (win)

 

[vanbasten]

I don't think the Titans will take the Jags seriously. They know Jax sucks and are comming off a huge win over the Fish. They allready beat Jax 30 to 17 in Jax so they must think this is an easy game to win at home.

i respectfully disagree.

they also know jax just beat indy.

i don't think any teams in the nfl take division games lightly.

that being said, double digits is alot.

good luck to you.

 

[ELVIS]

the key is taylor. he can get a 120 yds. they should cover. he rushes for 80 or less = too many 3 & 6 for leftwitch. he will be hit a lot. jmo

 

[Superbear]

Jacksonville Jaguars - moneyline (+450)

da Bears,..a tale of 2 teams heading in opposite directions,...as the wheels have fallen off the "show on turf" offence they head up north to play outside in the cold,...


10 and under system ( i did cut and paste from someone else the wording of these systems,..but allready knew of them,..he just puts them into words better) Wager on any team that scores 10 or less points in any regular season game when they are the home team underdog in their very next game. Let's theorize why this wager has done so well in recent years. A team will experience frustration and anger when they can't score in a game. These emotions are then constructively generated in their next home game, which is an advantage in itself. Our low scoring team tends to take out their frustration by playing more aggressively at home. The past performance record of this is quite remarkable.

 

[Superbear]

Play On - Road underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.). (28-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.7%, +18.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (18-20 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.3
The average score in these games was: Team 21.4, Opponent 21.7 (Average point differential = -0.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 10 (27.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (54-22).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (108-60).

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - poor passing team - with a completion pct of 53% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. (27-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.1%, +18.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (16-20 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.9
The average score in these games was: Team 19.1, Opponent 21.4 (Average point differential = -2.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (36.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (65-45).

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season. (29-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (14-23 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.1
The average score in these games was: Team 19.1, Opponent 21.4 (Average point differential = -2.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (37.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (38-22).

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in November games. (31-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.1%, +17.8 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (14-31 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.1
The average score in these games was: Team 18, Opponent 21.8 (Average point differential = -3.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (28.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (36-22).

Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, in weeks 10 through 13. (29-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.5%, +16.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (16-26 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.9
The average score in these games was: Team 17.6, Opponent 20 (Average point differential = -2.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (34.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (30-12).

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season. (34-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.9%, +20.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (16-32 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6
The average score in these games was: Team 19.2, Opponent 22.1 (Average point differential = -2.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (33.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (45-33).

Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - poor passing team - with a completion pct of 53% or worse. (47-17 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.4%, +28.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (27-38 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.9
The average score in these games was: Team 19.1, Opponent 20.8 (Average point differential = -1.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22 (34.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (132-91).

 

[Superbear]

Play On - Road underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. (33-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.7%, +18.7 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (24-24 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5
The average score in these games was: Team 18.3, Opponent 18.9 (Average point differential = -0.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (41.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-8).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (56-28).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (87-59).

Play On - Road underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 50 or less rushing yards last game. (48-21 since 1983.) (69.6%, +24.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (38-32)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.3
The average score in these games was: Team 19, Opponent 19.6 (Average point differential = -0.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 32 (45.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (31-12).

Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, in weeks 10 through 13. (29-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.5%, +16.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (16-26 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.9
The average score in these games was: Team 17.6, Opponent 20 (Average point differential = -2.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (34.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (30-12).

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in November games. (31-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.1%, +17.8 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (14-31 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.1
The average score in these games was: Team 18, Opponent 21.8 (Average point differential = -3.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (28.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (36-22).

Play Against - Favorites (ST LOUIS) - with an opportunistic defense - forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game, after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers. (61-29 since 1983.) (67.8%, +29.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (39-51)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 19.5, Opponent 22.1 (Average point differential = -2.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 34 (39.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).

Play Against - Road favorites (KANSAS CITY) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread. (36-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.6%, +19.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (28-24 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.7
The average score in these games was: Team 19.3, Opponent 21.1 (Average point differential = -1.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (40.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-10).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (55-42).

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in November games. (31-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.1%, +17.8 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (14-31 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.1
The average score in these games was: Team 18, Opponent 21.8 (Average point differential = -3.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (28.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (36-22).

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season. (34-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.9%, +20.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (16-32 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6
The average score in these games was: Team 19.2, Opponent 22.1 (Average point differential = -2.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (33.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (45-33).

 

[parlayinn]

holy crap those are some detailed systems

 

[Kdogg21]

Good luck. Be careful though. when you start having excuses to take teams and need a crap load of stats to take them, they end up losing most of the time.