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2004 NFL SEASON TO DATE
WINS 5
LOSSES 4
PUSH 1
SIDES: 4--3--1
TOTALS: 1--1
HALFTIMES: 0--0
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NOTE: For halftime plays, see "Halftime Angles" post, here at the site. When angle applies, it will be counted in the overall record.
THIS WEEK'S GAMES:
JACKSONVILLE +3
Comments: This appears to be a very even matchup, although the Jags defensive line is probably the best unit on the field. I think that's the difference here, as the Bills OL is young and in transition -- giving JAX the edge. Bills OL gave up 49 sacks last year and comes into this season with just an many questions. QB Bledsoe remains the NFL's least mobile QB, which means Bills will probably have to win through the air, assuming Bledsoe gets pass protection. Jags come into the game with more confidence than last season, are the better coached team, have the stronger defense, and are getting a FG. In a game expected to be close, I think that's enough to justify a wager on the underdog -- plus the points. The game is also expected to be low scoring (TOTAL -- 35), meaning the +3 is far more valuable in a game like this, than an offensive shootout. JAX +3
BALTIMORE -3
Comments: Ravens dominated this series last year, outscoring Browns 68-13 in two games. RB Lewis also ran wild against Cleveland's injury-riddled defense. Ravens offense should be even stronger this season, especially with healthy QB Boller now in his second season. I'm a big fan of gutsy QB Garcia, but in his first real game with his new team, with a unit that hasn't played much together, they will have a tough task against one of the NFL's best defenses. SInce Browns could have trouble scoring points, laying -3 on the road with a team that has proven it can run the ball appears to be a viable option. BALT -3
TENNESSEE/MIAMI OVER 38
Comments: Miami's aging and over-rated defense should have problems stopping Titan's air attack, and WRs Mason, Bennett, and Calico should get plenty of catches. With both teams losing their star RBs -- passing should be a big part of both offenses. Titan's also have some injury concerns with two CBs -- Dyson and (Mr. Holdoout) Rolle. Meanwhile, Miami upgraded its pass attack with addition of Booker, who should compliment Chambers and McMichael. There's no question Titans are capable of putting up points. More questions on Miami's side of the ball, but assuming Titans score 20+, I believe Miami has enough talent to keep pace and this total should soar into the 40s. This total is too low -- based on some outdated perceptions about the Miami defense which are no longer accurate. UNDER 38
TEASE NEW ORLEANS +8.5 with SAN FRANCISCO +10
Comments: I'd prefer to get +3 with the Saints as a side, but since the line is holding firm at 2.5, I'm teasing the Saints up as the home dog over a TD. Seattle is everyone's sexy pick, but until this team wins some road games, I'm not on the Seattle bandwagon. Seahwaks went just 2-6 SU on the road last year, and New Orleans is always a dangerous team at home. New Orleans can both run and pass the ball, and faces a medicore Seahwaks defense. For that reason, I think New Orleans should keep this very close. Saints suffered a miserable season in 2003, and are a better team than their record showed. I'll take a solid home dog early in the season against an overhyped team that could be very good, but has no business laying over a TD on the road (with the teaser)
Regarding the 49ers, I'm not high on this team, but the Falcons laying -4 is a joke. So, I'm taking SAN FRAN +4 and teasing them up to +10. I fail to understand how a team that won just 5 games last season can be more than a FG road favorite. The public is overreacting to QB Vick, who looked awful in preseason. Vick is certainly an exciting player and runner, but his 52 percent completion percentage ranks worst of any NFL starting QB. Until Vick can show he can pass, the jury is still out. Add the fact the Falcons had the NFL's WORST defense last season, and I really like taking a 49ers team that has low expectations, playing at home, with a 7-3 SU record in last ten openers.
TEASER with NOR and SFO
SAN FRANCISCO +4
Comments: There's no way this unproven Falcons team deserves to be a road favorite of more than a field goal. San Francisco is expected to be an awful team, but the talent level is much closer than the numbers indicate. Assuming 3 points is given for home field, does anyone believe the Falcons are a touchdown better than anyone -- even the 49ers? I also like 49ers coaching edge -- even with mediocre Erikkson. Baby Mora is coaching his first game, on the road -- usually a tough task. SAN FRAN +4
NY JETS -4.5
Comments: I have a rule -- I bet AGAINST quarterbacks getting their first start in a road game. Cincy QB Palmer gets the nod here, and faces a hostile environment in the Meadowlands. Expect Bengals to run the ball heavily, which means Jets can stack the line and shut down RB Johnson. Jets were out of the race by Week 4 last year, which means their awful stats are largely misleading. With QB Pennington back helathy, this is an entirely different (much better) team. Meanwhile Bengals had the 25th ranked defense last season and the pass defense has looked terrible in the pre-season. Pennington-Moss-Martin and co. could have a field day. Laying -4.5 seems like a reasonable number, versus a young apiring team with a new QB. NY JETS -4.5
ARIZONA/ST LOUIS UNDER 45
Comments: I'm not as impressed with Rams offense as most of the "experts," as this team remains very inconsistent. Even if Rams build an early lead, they could get conservative las the game goes on and win an "ugly" game -- which often happens in games with double-digit lines. Meanwhile tne Cards are depleted at WR, as their top three receivers were all out at different times in preseason -- meaning the offensive unit never got the reps needed to create some confidence. Coach Greens says he'll test the Rams with a simpler, run-oriented attack, which bodes well for the UNDER. Rams OL has some questions, so if Cards can put any pressure on QB Bulger, that could create a lower scoring game than expected. Rams should win a 27-13 type of game, so I'll go UNDER 45
TAMPA BAY/WASHINGTON UNDER 39
Comments: New Coach Gibbs should get back to basics in this game, which means lots of running. Look for a 60-40 run to pass ratio from the Redskins, meaning a game filled with field goals and field position battles. Bucs offensive line has gone through a major shake up, as offensive starters have not demonstrated much consistnecy or cohesiveness. Bucs WRs are all new to the offense as Bown and Gallaway have not developed much rapport with QB Johnson, Bucs were never known for big offense anyway and with so much tunover, playing on the road in game one only addds to the challenge. This total should be much lower, perhaps around 36.5. I like the UNDER even with that number so picking up wins on 37 and 38 is a nice bonus. UNDER 39
DALLAS/MINNESOTA OVER 44
Comments: I tend to like most dome games to go OVER (exception this week in St Louis). This looks to be the perfect OVER opportunity, since neither team has a running game (Bennet OUT) and Dallas has shown no ability to run the ball (RB E. George is finished). QB's Culpepper and Testeverde should both throw 40+ times, which are probably helped by flag-happy new PI rules. I noted that Cowboys passed a lot the last two preseason games, indicating that Coach Parcells realizes his running game stinks. SInce Vikings are likely to play man-coverage, expect Dallas to put the ball in the air more than normal. If either team builds a lead, the game could turn into a shootout. In the dome, with Minnesota's #1 ranked offense and weak defense, I think this total sails over the total. OVER 44
CAROLINA -3
Comments: The Panthers are the better team, laying a soft number. They still get no respect from the public or oddsmakers. I got them at 10-1 to win the NFC! The defense remains one of the NFL's best; the running game is strong; and QB Delhomme has a confidence-building year under his belt. This is a young, brilliantly-coached team that has some questions along the OL (three new starters), but Coach Fox has proven he can win with yooung, marginal talent. With the added motivation of a big MNF home game, this should be a coming out party for the Panthers. It's hard to bet against Packers major weapons -- Favre and Green, but one must start to wonder how many more years the Packers can go 10-6 and win the division. I think this is a game ot two teams moving in opposite directions, and the Panthers have mnore to prove. Lay the -3. CAROLINA -3
--Nolan Dalla
2004 NFL SEASON TO DATE
WINS 5
LOSSES 4
PUSH 1
SIDES: 4--3--1
TOTALS: 1--1
HALFTIMES: 0--0
**********************************
NOTE: For halftime plays, see "Halftime Angles" post, here at the site. When angle applies, it will be counted in the overall record.
THIS WEEK'S GAMES:
JACKSONVILLE +3
Comments: This appears to be a very even matchup, although the Jags defensive line is probably the best unit on the field. I think that's the difference here, as the Bills OL is young and in transition -- giving JAX the edge. Bills OL gave up 49 sacks last year and comes into this season with just an many questions. QB Bledsoe remains the NFL's least mobile QB, which means Bills will probably have to win through the air, assuming Bledsoe gets pass protection. Jags come into the game with more confidence than last season, are the better coached team, have the stronger defense, and are getting a FG. In a game expected to be close, I think that's enough to justify a wager on the underdog -- plus the points. The game is also expected to be low scoring (TOTAL -- 35), meaning the +3 is far more valuable in a game like this, than an offensive shootout. JAX +3
BALTIMORE -3
Comments: Ravens dominated this series last year, outscoring Browns 68-13 in two games. RB Lewis also ran wild against Cleveland's injury-riddled defense. Ravens offense should be even stronger this season, especially with healthy QB Boller now in his second season. I'm a big fan of gutsy QB Garcia, but in his first real game with his new team, with a unit that hasn't played much together, they will have a tough task against one of the NFL's best defenses. SInce Browns could have trouble scoring points, laying -3 on the road with a team that has proven it can run the ball appears to be a viable option. BALT -3
TENNESSEE/MIAMI OVER 38
Comments: Miami's aging and over-rated defense should have problems stopping Titan's air attack, and WRs Mason, Bennett, and Calico should get plenty of catches. With both teams losing their star RBs -- passing should be a big part of both offenses. Titan's also have some injury concerns with two CBs -- Dyson and (Mr. Holdoout) Rolle. Meanwhile, Miami upgraded its pass attack with addition of Booker, who should compliment Chambers and McMichael. There's no question Titans are capable of putting up points. More questions on Miami's side of the ball, but assuming Titans score 20+, I believe Miami has enough talent to keep pace and this total should soar into the 40s. This total is too low -- based on some outdated perceptions about the Miami defense which are no longer accurate. UNDER 38
TEASE NEW ORLEANS +8.5 with SAN FRANCISCO +10
Comments: I'd prefer to get +3 with the Saints as a side, but since the line is holding firm at 2.5, I'm teasing the Saints up as the home dog over a TD. Seattle is everyone's sexy pick, but until this team wins some road games, I'm not on the Seattle bandwagon. Seahwaks went just 2-6 SU on the road last year, and New Orleans is always a dangerous team at home. New Orleans can both run and pass the ball, and faces a medicore Seahwaks defense. For that reason, I think New Orleans should keep this very close. Saints suffered a miserable season in 2003, and are a better team than their record showed. I'll take a solid home dog early in the season against an overhyped team that could be very good, but has no business laying over a TD on the road (with the teaser)
Regarding the 49ers, I'm not high on this team, but the Falcons laying -4 is a joke. So, I'm taking SAN FRAN +4 and teasing them up to +10. I fail to understand how a team that won just 5 games last season can be more than a FG road favorite. The public is overreacting to QB Vick, who looked awful in preseason. Vick is certainly an exciting player and runner, but his 52 percent completion percentage ranks worst of any NFL starting QB. Until Vick can show he can pass, the jury is still out. Add the fact the Falcons had the NFL's WORST defense last season, and I really like taking a 49ers team that has low expectations, playing at home, with a 7-3 SU record in last ten openers.
TEASER with NOR and SFO
SAN FRANCISCO +4
Comments: There's no way this unproven Falcons team deserves to be a road favorite of more than a field goal. San Francisco is expected to be an awful team, but the talent level is much closer than the numbers indicate. Assuming 3 points is given for home field, does anyone believe the Falcons are a touchdown better than anyone -- even the 49ers? I also like 49ers coaching edge -- even with mediocre Erikkson. Baby Mora is coaching his first game, on the road -- usually a tough task. SAN FRAN +4
NY JETS -4.5
Comments: I have a rule -- I bet AGAINST quarterbacks getting their first start in a road game. Cincy QB Palmer gets the nod here, and faces a hostile environment in the Meadowlands. Expect Bengals to run the ball heavily, which means Jets can stack the line and shut down RB Johnson. Jets were out of the race by Week 4 last year, which means their awful stats are largely misleading. With QB Pennington back helathy, this is an entirely different (much better) team. Meanwhile Bengals had the 25th ranked defense last season and the pass defense has looked terrible in the pre-season. Pennington-Moss-Martin and co. could have a field day. Laying -4.5 seems like a reasonable number, versus a young apiring team with a new QB. NY JETS -4.5
ARIZONA/ST LOUIS UNDER 45
Comments: I'm not as impressed with Rams offense as most of the "experts," as this team remains very inconsistent. Even if Rams build an early lead, they could get conservative las the game goes on and win an "ugly" game -- which often happens in games with double-digit lines. Meanwhile tne Cards are depleted at WR, as their top three receivers were all out at different times in preseason -- meaning the offensive unit never got the reps needed to create some confidence. Coach Greens says he'll test the Rams with a simpler, run-oriented attack, which bodes well for the UNDER. Rams OL has some questions, so if Cards can put any pressure on QB Bulger, that could create a lower scoring game than expected. Rams should win a 27-13 type of game, so I'll go UNDER 45
TAMPA BAY/WASHINGTON UNDER 39
Comments: New Coach Gibbs should get back to basics in this game, which means lots of running. Look for a 60-40 run to pass ratio from the Redskins, meaning a game filled with field goals and field position battles. Bucs offensive line has gone through a major shake up, as offensive starters have not demonstrated much consistnecy or cohesiveness. Bucs WRs are all new to the offense as Bown and Gallaway have not developed much rapport with QB Johnson, Bucs were never known for big offense anyway and with so much tunover, playing on the road in game one only addds to the challenge. This total should be much lower, perhaps around 36.5. I like the UNDER even with that number so picking up wins on 37 and 38 is a nice bonus. UNDER 39
DALLAS/MINNESOTA OVER 44
Comments: I tend to like most dome games to go OVER (exception this week in St Louis). This looks to be the perfect OVER opportunity, since neither team has a running game (Bennet OUT) and Dallas has shown no ability to run the ball (RB E. George is finished). QB's Culpepper and Testeverde should both throw 40+ times, which are probably helped by flag-happy new PI rules. I noted that Cowboys passed a lot the last two preseason games, indicating that Coach Parcells realizes his running game stinks. SInce Vikings are likely to play man-coverage, expect Dallas to put the ball in the air more than normal. If either team builds a lead, the game could turn into a shootout. In the dome, with Minnesota's #1 ranked offense and weak defense, I think this total sails over the total. OVER 44
CAROLINA -3
Comments: The Panthers are the better team, laying a soft number. They still get no respect from the public or oddsmakers. I got them at 10-1 to win the NFC! The defense remains one of the NFL's best; the running game is strong; and QB Delhomme has a confidence-building year under his belt. This is a young, brilliantly-coached team that has some questions along the OL (three new starters), but Coach Fox has proven he can win with yooung, marginal talent. With the added motivation of a big MNF home game, this should be a coming out party for the Panthers. It's hard to bet against Packers major weapons -- Favre and Green, but one must start to wonder how many more years the Packers can go 10-6 and win the division. I think this is a game ot two teams moving in opposite directions, and the Panthers have mnore to prove. Lay the -3. CAROLINA -3
--Nolan Dalla
