NFL Week 15

[Smitty]

Indy (+3.5) 4 units
Indy (ML) 1 unit to win 1.6
Over (47.5) 2 units. Yes, i'm going to just keep betting against minnesota. Seems like the logical thing to do. This line is BEGGING for Minny money.

Baltimore (ML) 2 units to win 2.6.
Under (38) 6 units. Again, losing Lamar is not a bad thing. As bad as Baltimore has been lately, Cleveland has been even worse. Amazingly, Mr. "massage my penis" hasn't helped. Oh, and they're expecting wind gusts up to 32 mph tomorrow afternoon. Both teams can run the ball. Cleveland is terrible at stopping the run (30th, per DVOA).

Miami (+7) 3 units
Miami (ML) 1 unit to win 2.6
Under (44) 4 units
1H under 21.5 2 units. Yeah, Miami's last couple games worry me. They are finally regressing to the mean. This is purely an anti-Buffalo bet. Since beating KC, Buffalo is 1-6 ATS. And for the season, Buffalo is 11-2 to the under. While the wind is expected to die down a little by tomorrow evening, they're still calling for gusts in the 20s.


sides 10-10 -9.1 units
ML 7-9 +5.0
totals 16-14 +6.8
props 1-0 +2.0

 

[Smitty]

Sunday

Detroit (ML) 4 units to win 4.2.
Jax (+4) 2 units
Philly TT over (28.5) 4 units. Since Chicago started trading away their top defensive players, their opponent has gone over their TT all 7 games
Ridder Rushing Yards over (23.5, -120) 3.6 to win 3. Ridder is going to be a joke as an nfl qb, but he's athletic enough to take off and go over this number.
Koo over 1.5 fgs 1 to win 1.1
Lutz over 1.5 fgs 1.2 to win 1 I just see drives for both teams stalling in the red zone, leading to plenty of fgs in that nice dome.
Arizona (ML) 2 units to win 2.2. McCoy is mediocre, but at least he can read a defense and know where he should throw the ball. That is an improvement over Murray.


sides 12-10 -2.1 units
ML 7-12 +1.0
totals 18-16 +8.2
props 1-0 +2.0

 

[Smitty]

updated

sides 13-10 -0.1 units
ML 8-13 +3.2
totals 18-17 +3.8
props 1-3 -3.8

 

[Smitty]

just noticed that Ridder went over his #. I must have seen the stats just before his run on the last play of the game. woot woot! updated record:

sides 13-10 -0.1 units
ML 8-13 +3.2
totals 18-17 +3.8
props 2-2 +2.8

Wasn't really going to do much of anything with tonight's game, but since i'm here....

jax (ML) 2 units to win 2.5
nyj tt under (19.5) 2 units

just betting against zach wilson. done well with jax the last couple weeks, but feels like they're due for another big clunker. so we'll see. dammit, now i'm going to have to watch some of this shit.