NFL Week 2

[JEFF]

Got one so far that I'm set in stone on, and that is ...

ATL -3, 5 units

Loving Vick and the birds here. Loving them even more today as the Bears lose tow of their best D guys in McQuarters and Daniels -- will make it even harder to stop both parts of his emerging game.

ATL was sooo close in GB, and they should have won. They got a taste of success and what Vick can do, and they will be pumped for this one at home. They got crushed at home last year by CHI, so we'll see if revenge is a factor here. But to keep it simple I love Vick and I think he gets it done here against a banged up Bears D.

Other leans are:
Cincy +4, Was +3, NYJ -1

But I'm still looking at those. Back later.

YTD 8-2, +13.3 units

 

[casper]

couldn't agree with you more this is a great spot for atlanta. they are home with new expectations and talent. i don't think chic is as good as alot of people think they are. although it's only been one game i'm very impressed with vick, as i haven't really been impressed with the hype. but when that kid shows poise in the pocket like he did on sunday, it's so dangerous because if he's relaxed he can bolt for 5 yds so easily if there's no receivers open. he had at least 2 (if i remember right) td's passes that were dropped. protection is the key if atlanta's o-line can do well protecting atl. wins this game. i also like the fact that chic is coming off a win they really shouldn't have had. for those who haven't seen it the line opened at 1.5 at stardust and got hit to 3 very quickly, according to the site i use.

like the jets too good luck

 

[boilermaker]

Be careful , Falcons just lost pro bowl D back for failing drug test. Out 4 weeks. I look for Marty Booker to have a huge game.

 

[JEFF]

Be careful , Falcons just lost pro bowl D back for failing drug test

A Pro Bowler ... in 1998. Thats the last time he made it. He's still good but theyve still been calling him 'Big Play Ray' the past few years, but not because he is the one making the big plays.

I'm more interesting in CHI loss of McQuarters and Daniels. Containing Vick is gonna be a bitch.

 

[JEFF]

adding ...

adding ...

Bengals + 4.5, 4 units

Raise your hand if you think the Browns are going to blow anyone out this year ...


Both of these teams have awful run defenses, but the difference is the Bungals have Dillon and the Borwns got nuttin'. Cincys run game was non existent against a potentially awesome SD 'D' last week, but they will re-emphasize it against a CLE 'D' that let Priest Holmes run buck wild.

I also have some question as to whether the Browns will suffer a hangover from Week one's disastrous loss. Couch is iffy, and he may go, but that doesnt scare me.

Huge consensuson CLE (80% at Wagerline), yet the line went down. CINCY is 2-1 ATS at CLE,and the ATS loss was a SU win.

 

[pt1gard]

jeff, like your FALCON PICK

jeff, like your FALCON PICK

havent pulled trigger yet tho, hoping to see it drop to 2.5 might even buy 1/2 ... Atlanta owes Bears from last year's Dome mauling, 31-3

twice last week I noticed same thing at wagerline = huge cons. then line goes other way ... both times public was wrong, i.e. Browns this week

I wont bet blundering beagles, but I will keep eye on that formula

take care, gregg

 

[JEFF]

Gregg-

I generally would only buy the point in an effort to not get beat. In this case, you would only be trying not to push. I definitely see where you;recoming from as ATL could win by an FG, but I would just play it straight.

As far as CINCY, yeah its hard to pull the trigger on those clowns. This is just a matter of going against the grain, and looking at a line that hasn't moved despite huge consensu. Good luck.

 

[Wolftaz]

Jeff,

I like the Bengals, too. Just hard to pull the trigger on them. Like you mentioned above, the Bengals have Dillon and he is very hungry to get back on track after last weeks fiasco. The Browns also have problems on their O-line now with their starting center and Tucker out for the game. Major shake-up on the line could spell a long day for whoever the Browns have in at QB. I look for the Bengals to rebound big....:shrug:

 

[JEFF]

Wolftaz

Wolftaz

You're right it is damn hard to do, but going against the norm on these games is a strategy of mine, so no choice involved. The OL problems and lack of a run game made it easier though. You think that reaks, wait til you see my next one...

Cowgirls + 4, 4 units

I must be an idiot betting on Quincy "I wish I was as good as Ryan Leaf" Carter and the Pokes. But last time I checked, the folks in LV aren't into handing out free money. This has sucker all over it, everybody and their mom is on Tenn. Line has not moved much, although I saw SIA has it at 4.5.

Some facts: DAL is embarassed and will play their asses off.

TEN may still be living offan old rep.

TEN has failed to cover as road faves in last 6 tries.

The Titans have failed to cover their last five games on artificial turf. ? The Cowboys are 16-8 against the number in their last 24 home games. ? Dallas is 8-3 vs. the spread in its last 11 games as a home dog.

This is the stinker of all stinkers, but I gotta take it.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Was thinkin about the Cowboys, too, jeff. You're certainly on the contrarian side on that one. Pondering it myself. One of those "You against the world" type of plays.

 

[JEFF]

Chucky ..

Chucky ..

I'm on the contrarian side of most this week. As far as Dallas, I'd rather be against the world on a game like that. If Dallas covers I don't ever want to hear anyone here say there aren't trap lines. Tenn may well cover but there is no free money out there.


adding Buff + 5

Getting points with the better defense and better rushing team. The Bills are just 4-18 SU in their last 22 contests dating back to 2000. Also bad as faves. Buff should limit the big plays and couldget outta there with a win. Oh yeah, those ATS #'s poster by Senor Capper are pretty nice too.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

good luck this weekend!

 

[JEFF]

Toolate for write ups, will try to explain tmw.

NYJ -2, 3 units
Balt +4, 2 units
Buff under 48, 4 units
Indy -2, 4 units
KC -4, 3 units