NFL Week 4

[Happy Hippo]

ATS: 1-0-1 (+1.0)



Seahawks-Texans

The Seahawks have one of the best home stadiums in the league, there is no doubt about that. Over the last three seasons they are 20-6-1 ATS at home, and 9-1 ATS with Russell Wilson at QB. I wouldn?t want to play there. But, in week one, the Seahawks barely won over the Panthers on the road. After that, they had their first home win, an impressive schlacking of the 49ers, and then they blew out a totally inept Jaguar team. After these two wins, their stock may be a bit inflated. Teams that are coming off of two wins by 25 or more points and playing on 6 or less days of rest are 12-28 (30.0%) ATS in their next game since the 1990 season. As a road favorite, these teams are 2-10 ATS.

On the other side, the Texans have failed to impress yet this season, needing to claw from behind in their first two games for wins, and now coming off of a bad road loss as a favorite. Their stock could be a bit deflated due to these games. Since the 1989 season, teams coming off a 20 or more ATS margin loss on the road are 31-18-3 ATS (63.3%) when playing at home as a dog. If they were a favorite in their road loss, they are 73.3% ATS. Teams playing as a home dog of more than one coming off a loss as a road favorite of more than one are 30-15-2 ATS (66.7%) since the 2000 season. Over the last five seasons in the month of September, teams coming off a loss as a favorite are 25-9 ATS (73.5%) when playing in a conference game as a dog. Since the 1989 season, teams playing at home with a line of -3 to +3 are 16-6 ATS (72.7%) when they are coming off a loss as a favorite and their opponent is coming off two home wins. These teams are 7-2 SU as a dog. Although this trend extends back a long way in time, it holds true more recently, as teams in this millenium are 9-3 SU and ATS.

The Texans have been pretty good defensively so far this season. In fact, they are the third best defensive team as far as total yards allowed, giving up only 249/game so far. Last season, teams that gave up less that 277 yards per game on the season were 17-4 ATS (81%) as a dog of less than seven and 9-1 SU and ATS at home. What has hurt them is that their takeaway margin so far this season is -3, and Schaub has thrown three pick-sixes in three games.

The big equalizers in this game are home field and the running game. These two teams are the top two in receiving yards allowed, and this game will be decided on the ground. Seattle will have to transition from an extremely good environment to a hostile one. In 74% of their home games over the last three seasons, the Texans have won time of possession, in part because of their strong running game, averaging 146.8 rushing yards at home and out-rushing opponents by over 45 yards per game. Their defense is better than the Seahawks so far this season in rushing yards allowed per attempt. Seattle has actually struggled to gain much through their rushing game this season, averaging only 3.7 yards/rush. The Texans have the third most rushing yards per game (137.8) since the 2010 season and the second-most rushing touchdowns. The Texans should be able to control the clock in this game through their running game. Home dogs that possess the ball more on offense and out-rush their opponents win ATS 76.6% of the time.

The Texans struggled in the red zone against the Ravens, going 0-2. Despite that, they are the fourth best team so far this season in converting touchdowns in the red zone. Kubiak was criticized for his conservative play calling, and I expect the Texans to step up their offense in this game and take some risks if needed. Teams coming off a road loss as a favorite where they had two or more red zone failures are 16-6 (72.7%) ATS since the 2001 season. Schaub needs to play well and reduce his errors. Against a great Seattle team, these may be tall orders, but I think the Texans can pull out the win in Houston on Sunday.

Texans +3

 

[smurphy]

Great info, Hippo!

 

[Happy Hippo]

Thanks Smurphy.




Giants-Chiefs

The Chiefs have been nothing less than impressive so far this season, starting off with three wins and quickly eclipsing their win total of last season. Their defense has been unyielding, giving up only 11.3 points per game, while offensively they have been neat and tidy with no turnovers to date. They are coming off a nice road win as a dog. Their turnover margin has been +3 per game, and that is a recipe for success, as teams with a turnover margin of 3 or more per game win 92% of the time and cover ATS 90.2% of the time. So this week the Chiefs get a long week to prepare for a Giants team that has the worst takeaway margin in the league at -3 per game this season. If this game were to play out mathematically, that would give the Chiefs a +6 turnover margin in this game, and teams with those numbers are a virtual lock to win and cover. So, this is easy. I?ll lay the big chalk with the Chiefs and take my money to the bank.

What?s that? I only have to lay 4 points? Sweetness!

The Giants have looked horrible offensively so far, mainly due to Eli Manning and the fact their running game is nonexistent. But Eli has been an elite quarterback in the past, and the Giants have had good success in the past running the ball (they were in the top ten in the league last year in yards/attempt), so there is no reason to doubt that they are going to turn it around at some point during this season, and it could very well come on Sunday, as some historical trends suggest. The Chiefs are the worst team in the league this season as far as yards allowed per rushing attempt, and maybe Coughlin will mix in some running game to give the Giants a chance on Sunday and alleviate some pressure off Eli. Under Coughlin, the Giants are 14-7 ATS (66.7%) with a SU winning record as a dog after a game where they rushed for less than 100 yards. Eli was sacked seven times against the Panthers, and the offensive line needs to step up their game. Center David Baas on their performance: ?We have to fix it and fast because that is not by any means New York Giants football. It?s embarrassing.? Teams that are coming off a road loss where their quarterback was sacked five or more times are 27-13 ATS (67.5%) since the 2005 season when playing as a road dog. The whole offense appeared anemic against the Panthers, but since the 2004 season, teams playing on 6 or more days of rest that had less than 15 first downs in their last game and scored less than seven points are 62-39-2 ATS (61.4%) when playing as a road dog. Teams coming off a game where they scored no points are 28-13-0 (68.3%) when playing as a road dog since the 1993 season. Teams playing as a road dog that lost their last game by 31 or more points are 58-37-5 ATS (61.1%) since the 1989 season. Teams coming off two ATS losses by ten or more points are 17-9 ATS (65.4%) when they are playing in their second road game. In the month of September, teams playing in a conference game as a dog are 25-9 ATS (73.5%) over the last fives seasons if they are coming off a loss as a favorite.

On the other side, the Chiefs are coming off a big emotional win over the Eagles, and while they have had time to readjust and prepare for the Giants, I just see this as a let-down spot for them. They may feel a bit too comfortable with their new system now. They have been heavily reliant on their defense to carry them up to this point in the season. Their offense has certainly been serviceable, but they are in the bottom half of the league in total yards gained per game at 333, and despite all their turnovers, the Giants have a slightly better average yards per game, and a greater number of first downs, even with having run almost ten plays less per game this season. Road dogs with more first downs than their opponent cover the spread 65.6% of the time over the last five seasons. Last season the Giants were in the top ten in the league in ball protection, giving the ball away three less times per game than their 4.3 average so far this season, while the Chiefs were second to last in the league in takeaways. It?s time for the pendulum to swing and some balance to be restored. Sometimes, playing great means that you are just due for a flop, and vice-versa. Alex Smith has done a safe job at running the team so far, but they are averaging only 5.9 yards per pass attempt, while the Giants are averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt. While the Giants have been torched so far this season, it is largely due to the turnovers and field position they have given up. Their defense is actually in the top half of the league in yards allowed per passing attempt, and opponents rushing yards per attempt. If the Giants can average more yards per pass attempt, road dogs that win this category cover the spread 78.7% of the time over the last five seasons in a sample of over 300 games. Smith has good ball protection and he is smart with his passes, but he may be due for a poor outing. Since the 1999 seasons, teams playing at home in the first four weeks of the season that are coming off of two wins where they had no interceptions are 2-26 ATS. As a favorite, 1-23ATS.

Arrowhead has been touted as one of the tougher places to play in the league, but the Chiefs 40.5% ATS cover rate at home over the last five seasons speaks to the ability of opponents to perform well there. Since the 2000 season, teams that have 3 losses and no wins on the season are 18-8 ATS (69.2%) when playing as a road dog. Who knows, maybe the Giants really will win one.

Giants +4.5

 

[Happy Hippo]

Cardinals-Bucs - scratched from card

The Bucs appear to be in total freefall right now. There are reports of a lot of animosity in the locker room between players and coach, including a major disconnect between coach Schiano and his two stars, Josh Freeman and Darrelle Revis, in regards to Schiano and his coaching style. This disconnect so far seems to have translated onto the field, as the Tampa Bay offense looks completely flat, averaging only 282 yards per game, which is good for second to last in the league, and only 14.7 first downs per game, good for a tie for last place. They have lost the time of possession battle in every game so far this season, while the Cardinals have won the clock in two out of three games. Road dogs that win time of possession cover the spread 71.8% of the time over the past five seasons. Tampa is also last in the league in passing completion percentage at 45.74%. If Palmer can have a decent day, the Cardinals should be able to have a better completion percentage. Road dogs with a better completion percentage cover the spread 71.9% over the past five seasons.

Early in the year, it seems like some home teams get value just for playing at home. Since 1989, teams coming off a road loss playing at home with a line of -3 to +3 are 55-93-9 ATS (37.2%) in the month of September. On the other side, teams coming off a road loss playing in another road game where the line is -3 to +3 are 69-33-4 ATS (67.6%) since the 2004 season. Since the 2005 season, when two teams are coming off road losses, the road dog is 62-32-2 ATS (66%).

With all the problems the Bucs are facing internally and on the field, they are probably looking forward to their bye week next week. Over the last five seasons, home favorites that are headed into a bye week are 29-41 ATS (41.4%), and when their opponent is coming into the game off a loss just 16-25 ATS (39%). All teams playing in weeks 3-7 with a bye week on deck are just 40.7% ATS over the last four seasons. With a losing record, these same teams are just 11-21ATS (34.4%). More than any other team in the NFL, the Bucs may be looking forward to a week off to try to sort out their issues.

After averaging 24.5 point in their first two outings, the Cardinals only managed seven points early in the game against the Saints, and never scored again. Over the last ten seasons before week 7, teams that are coming off a game where they scored less than 14 points and allowed more than 21 points are 34-22 ATS (60.7%) when playing on the road against a team coming off a loss. The Cardinals failed to gain 250 yards in their last game, while allowing the Saints over 420 yards. Teams coming off a loss where their opponent outgained them by 150 total yards are 47-26-2 ATS (64.4%) since the 2000 season when playing as a road dog against a team that is also coming off a road loss.

The Bucs are a mess right now, and while the Cardinals are not the greatest team in the league, they have their moments. The Saints made them look silly in their last game, but then again, playing in New Orleans is tough - the Saints have covered the spread in their home games at a rate of 68.2% over the last five seasons. The Bucs are only 35% ATS in their home games over the last five seasons. I like the Cardinals to rebound in this game and have a solid outing against a team that seems completely out of sync right now.

Cardinals +3 - bought out took TB -3


[I wrote most of this before Freeman was replaced in the starting lineup, but I don't think it changes much in my analysis. Not sure that installation will solve the Bucs issues at this point.]


--------------------------------------------------------------

Bengals-Browns

The Bengals have had a nice start to the season. They have started off with three big games, all against tough opponents. They were lucky to win against Green Bay at the end of that game, as fourteen of their points came off of turnovers. Now, they travel to Cleveland to play a game where they should clearly win, and then next week they have the Patriots at home.

The Browns have been great defensively so far this season, giving up just 300 total yards per game and they are second best in the league in yards per play, holding opponents to 4.2. Obviously where they have struggled has been offensively, but Hoyer and the return of wide receiver Gordon last week seemed to really bolster the Browns offense, along with a couple trick plays thrown into the mix.

The Bengals and Browns know each other well, as it has long been an inter-state rivalry. Teams playing at home in a divisional game are 32-15 ATS (68.1%) in the last forty-seven. Both of these teams are coming off wins as dogs, but to me, there is a big difference in mentality between coming off a road win as a dog, or a home win as a dog. For the road team, they are building respect and finding themselves, whereas for a home dog it is more a finger wagging of ?don?t disrespect?. This is reflected generally in teams ATS cover rate in their next game, as teams coming off a road dog win playing as a home dog cover at a rate of 59.7% since 1989, while teams coming off a home dog win playing on the road cover at a rate of 43.8% since the 1989 season. Teams with a winning record coming off a home win as a dog playing as a road favorite are just 17-30 ATS (36.2%) since the 1989 season. This trend holds true recently, as these teams are 6-15 (28.6%) over the last eleven seasons.

Over the last ten seasons, teams with a winning percentage over 50 that are coming off a home win as a dog are 33-49-6 ATS (40.2%). If they are now playing a divisional opponent, they are 38.7% ATS, and as a road favorite in a divisional matchup 27.3% ATS. Over the last five seasons, the Bengals are 3-6-1 ATS vs. the Browns. The Browns should be able to keep this game close. The Bengals are clearly the better team, but I?ll play off their mentality this week.

Browns +5

 

[grindstone]

Hey what's going on my lady didn't know you were into the NFL. Love your picks by the way what do you think of Det -3 this week and ATL -1. Really loving the Lions.

Hope all is well with the family, NBA right around the corner

 

[Happy Hippo]

That's probably all the brain cells I have to use for the week. Hope everyone has a profitable week. And, don't forget - the NBA preseason starts next Saturday for your viewing pleasure.

:0074

Cheers

 

[Happy Hippo]

Hey what's going on my lady didn't know you were into the NFL. Love your picks by the way what do you think of Det -3 this week and ATL -1. Really loving the Lions.

Hope all is well with the family, NBA right around the corner

Hey grindstone - good to see you! I took the Lions already (got it at -2.5), but smaller than my other bets. The Falcons are really good coming off a loss and at home (cover at a 75% clip when playing at home coming off a loss under Smith) - this bodes well for them, plus the Pats are just a question mark right now, but with all the injuries for Atlanta I'll pass on that one this week.

Family is well - headed to the beach this weekend. Looking forward to some hoops!

Hope you are doing well, also.

Cheers

 

[Hashish]

Good luck this week, Happy Hippo! Hoops are imminent!

 

[grindstone]

Hey grindstone - good to see you! I took the Lions already (got it at -2.5), but smaller than my other bets. The Falcons are really good coming off a loss and at home (cover at a 75% clip when playing at home coming off a loss under Smith) - this bodes well for them, plus the Pats are just a question mark right now, but with all the injuries for Atlanta I'll pass on that one this week.

Family is well - headed to the beach this weekend. Looking forward to some hoops!

Hope you are doing well, also.

Cheers

All is well glad your getting your R&R before our grind in the NBA. I will collect data t'll thanksgiving and then will start to post beginning of Dec. Do you want to do it all over again this year?? We did well last yr.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Good luck this week, Happy Hippo! Hoops are imminent!

Looking forward to your plays!

All is well glad your getting your R&R before our grind in the NBA. I will collect data t'll thanksgiving and then will start to post beginning of Dec. Do you want to do it all over again this year?? We did well last yr.

Most likely will post this year, I have been doing a lot of work this summer building better angles. I have a little side job doing some advanced stat work for pro and college basketball this year, so will have to see how much time I dedicate to that venture. Definitely look forward to your thoughts, as always.

Best

 

[Statman02]

Happy....it was just announced that Tampa has benched Josh Freeman for Mike Glennon......does that make any difference to you ?

 

[Hashish]

Happy....it was just announced that Tampa has benched Josh Freeman for Mike Glennon......does that make any difference to you ?

IMO it makes it stronger. Glennon is no upgrade.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Statman - I'm sure Hashish knows better than me about Glennon's ability, so his opinion is stronger than mine.

But, I mainly made the play due to the reported infighting and discord between coach and players. Now, coach has benched a fifth year starting quarterback in favor of a rookie. Hard to tell - maybe this will strengthen the team and they will rally, but it really puts a lot of pressure on Schiano to perform well with his decision, and if the team is truly unhappy with him as a coach, it could make their performance on Sunday even more dismal.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Interesting to compare the lines posted by Cantor Gaming before the season started, compared to the actual lines this week. Are teams with major discrepancies in lines actually that much better than before the season started, or are they being a bit over or under valued?

Biggest spread differences:

Giants 6 point difference
Colts 6 point difference
Jets 4.5 point difference



Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Buffalo Bills

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Cleveland Browns

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-1)

New York Giants (-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings [London, England]

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Seattle Seahawks (-1) at Houston Texans

New York Jets (-1, -105) at Tennessee Titans

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-7.5)

Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers (-1)

Washington Redskins (-4) at Oakland Raiders

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (PK)

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-4.5, -115)

 

[whodey]

Interesting to compare the lines posted by Cantor Gaming before the season started, compared to the actual lines this week. Are teams with major discrepancies in lines actually that much better than before the season started, or are they being a bit over or under valued?

Interesting.... Good stuff hippo

Thanks for sharing and GL :0008

 

[Happy Hippo]

Thanks whodey

I'm buying out of my Cards bet, taking TB at -3 +110. Just decided I don't want to bet against a QB I know nothing about, and just not sure how the team will respond to Freeman's benching.

Better games on the board today.

 

[whodey]

Thanks whodey

I'm buying out of my Cards bet, taking TB at -3 +110. Just decided I don't want to bet against a QB I know nothing about, and just not sure how the team will respond to Freeman's benching.

Better games on the board today.

:0074

nice move... sometimes a pass is the best play... and gun to my head I would say home team with better defense and RB takes it

 

[Old School]

Colts undervalued..

this team by seasons end last year was ready to scrap with anyone

 

[Rusty40]

Very nice write up Thanks for the time Happy

And Good Luck

 

[Happy Hippo]

Thanks all - my final card today:

Texans +3 x2
Giants +4.5 x2
Browns +5 x2
Lions -2.5
Jets-Titans OVER 40.5


Good luck!