NFL Week 5

[Happy Hippo]

ATS: 4-1-2 (+2.8)
O/U: 1-0 (+1.0)

TOTAL: 5-1-2 (+3.8)



Panthers-Cardinals

The Cardinals are coming off a road win as a dog. Not sure it can be characterized as a ?nice? road win, as they beat a horrible Bucs team and not in a fashionable way, scoring all their points in the fourth quarter after two interceptions off a rookie quarterback. It was Arizona's first touchdown in six quarters. They netted only 296 yard, had a third down conversion rate of 10%, a 33% red zone conversion rate, and were 0/1 on goal to go attempts. They lost the time of possession by nearly ten minutes and Palmer threw two interceptions. Despite the scoreboard, it was an ugly outing. The Cardinals really are lucky to be 2-2, having outscored their opponents in their two wins 18-0 in the fourth quarter on some bad mistakes by the other team. Their margin of victory on the season is still negative 5 ppg. Teams playing at home with a line of -3 to +3 with a 50% winning record on the season are 30-53 ATS (36.6%) since the 2005 season.

Now, they face off against a team that is comparable or even better defensively in the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have held opponents to only 12 points per game so far this season, allowing opponents only one touchdown per game. They have the third best red zone defense in terms of completion percentage holding opponents to just a 28.6% completion rate, while the Cardinals are second to last in the league in red zone completion percentage at 36.4%. On the other side, the Cardinals allow opponents touchdowns at a rate of 63.6% in the red zone this season, and the Panthers are third in the league in completion rate in the red zone at 71.34%. Not surprisingly, teams playing on the road that have a better red zone completion percentage in the game cover the spread 73% of the time in a sample of over 400 games.

The Panthers are just 1-2 on the season, but their average MOV is 10.67 ppg, and they were up on Seattle until the fourth quarter, and were beat by the Bills on a last second touchdown pass. Their record is better than it reflects to this point in the season. They are now coming off a great game against the Giants, where they held them scoreless. After a team holds an opponent to twenty points less than they were expected to score in the game, they are 27-13 (67.5%) over the last ten seasons, speaking to their ability to carry over great defensive play. They have had two weeks to prepare for the Cardinals, and teams playing as a road favorite after their bye week are 27-8 ATS (77.1%) over the last five seasons.

With their fresh legs and a bit of momentum, the Panthers should be able to have a solid game against the Cardinals who have been squeeking out lucky covers and wins. The Panthers dominate the Cardinals in nearly every important ATS statistical category on both sides of the ball, from third down conversion rate to red zone conversions, turnover margin, and so on. I like the Panthers to win this game handily.

Over the last five seasons, teams with more rest than their opponent are 50-24 ATS (67.6%).

Panthers -2 x2

 

[Happy Hippo]

Patriots - Bengals

The Bengals had a tough road game last week, facing one of the best defenses in the league in the Browns. They were coming off a lucky home win against the Packers, and their momentum came to a screeching halt in the Dawg Pound. The Browns played great defense against the Bengals, holding them to just six points and keeping them out of the endzone on both their red zone attempts, which is particularly impressive since the Bengals are seventh in the league in red zone conversion percentage. Teams coming off a road loss as a favorite where they had two or more red zone failures are 18-5 (78.3% ATS) when playing at home within three points of a pick-em since the 2001 season. On the other side, the Patriots are off to a nice start this season, rolling into Cincinnati undefeated and coming off a nice win as a dog against the Falcons. Home teams in this situation have a good track record. Since the 1990 season, home teams coming off a road loss as a favorite are 14-6-1 ATS (70%) when facing an opponent that is coming off a road win as a dog.

The quarterback position is by far the most important position for any team. Brady is hard to bet against. In his career, he is a solid 59.1% ATS. The Patriots are having one of their best seasons defensively in years, and they seem to be improving on both ends in every game. But the loss of Wilfork could be evident in this game. Brady: ?To say we'll miss him is an understatement. His presence in the locker room and on the field is really unmatched, so it will be a team effort.? With Wilfork on the field, the Patriots have allowed only 4.1 yards per rush over the last five season, which is ninth-best in the NFL, but when he is not on the field, the Patriots give up 5 yards per rush, which is good for last in the league. As a team that needs to find a better balance between rushing and passing, this may be a good spot for the Bengals. After a game where they rush for less than 100 yards, the Bengals are 15-10 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons, averaging over 100 yards rushing per game. They should be able to take advantage of the Patriots on the ground in this game, and hopefully open up their passing game while taking some pressure off Dalton as well.

Despite Brady?s ongoing brilliance, the loss of Welker still seems to be evident, as he doesn?t have that solid dependent receiver on the field. Brady?s completion percentage over the last five seasons has been 64.7%, whereas this season it is 58.9%. Dalton has a better completion percentage so far this season at 63.5%, and teams with a better completion percentage in the game cover the spread 65.1% of the time over the last five seasons. The Bengals have also averaged more passing yards per attempt on the season, and over the last ten seasons, teams that are averaging more yards per pass attempt on the season are 24-13 ATS (2.43, 64.9%) when they are coming off a loss and their opponent is coming off a win, playing at home within three points of a pick-em.

I like the Bengals to rebound in this game and have a solid outing at home against a good Patriots team that may be slightly over-achieving up to this point in the season. Time for a loss for the almighty Brady.

Bengals pick -115 x2

 

[pug]

Love this play. I think this game won't even be close. Car is very under rated and has had a full 2 weeks to prepare for this one. Car ended 2012 winning 5 of 6 and its 2 losses this year were to Sea and a last second lossd at Buff. AZ lost to Stl and could barely beat lowly TB with Glennon playing his first NFL game. The line is very telling also, as I would normally have expected this line to be AZ -3. I expect this to be a low scoring game somewhere along the lines of 23-10

 

[Happy Hippo]

Love this play. I think this game won't even be close. Car is very under rated and has had a full 2 weeks to prepare for this one. Car ended 2012 winning 5 of 6 and its 2 losses this year were to Sea and a last second lossd at Buff. AZ lost to Stl and could barely beat lowly TB with Glennon playing his first NFL game. The line is very telling also, as I would normally have expected this line to be AZ -3. I expect this to be a low scoring game somewhere along the lines of 23-10

Thanks pug - I like Carolina a lot as a team. I agree on the quality of opponents so far this season that both teams have faced.

Cheers

 

[Happy Hippo]

Saints - Bears

The Saints have been impressive in their last two games. Their game against the Dolphins was a textbook win with very few mistakes. They make the game look easy, and that?s a sure sign of a great team. However, sometimes teams coming off a game that was too perfect struggle in their next start. Before week 10 in the NFL season, teams coming off a game in which they were at least a touchdown favorite, and they covered ATS by two or more touchdowns, had a positive turnover margin, and led after each quarter are just 6-35 ATS (14.6%) in their next game since the 2005 season. Teams coming off two wins by 21 or more points are just 40% ATS when playing on the road against an opponent coming off a loss since the 2000 season. If you add in that the team is off two home wins and their opponent is off a road loss, this trend sharpens to 30.4% ATS. The Saints also have to transition from playing two games on an artificial surface in a friendly environment, to a hostile road game on grass. Teams that are coming off a home turf win in which they covered ATS are just 17-34 ATS (33%) if they are facing an opponent coming off a road loss and the game is on grass.

I think these two teams are fairly well matched. The Bears have been putting up great numbers offensively so far this season, scoring 31.8 ppg, while playing against some pretty good defensive teams. The Bears big improvement this season has come from their offensive line and quarterback protection, and Cutler?s production is up because of this. The Saints defense has been much improved this year, but besides the Falcons, they have not played a team that is particularly successful on the offensive end yet this season (their other three opponents are in the bottom 8 in total yardage/game this season). The Bears will be hyped up for this big home game, especially after a poor first half in their last game against the Lions. Since the 1996 season, teams that are coming off a road game where they were trailing by more than two touchdowns at halftime are 21-11 ATS (65.6%) when playing at home in a game where the line is within 2.5 points of a pick-em and their opponent is coming off a home win.

Cutler is coming off a poor game in which he had three interceptions and a fumble, and yet the team still only lost by single digits. The Bears have some good offensive weapons, and the team is in synch overall. Mistakes are going to happen, even to very good players. I think the Bears will pick up a nice win over the Saints at home on Sunday.

Bears pick -120 x2

 

[Jord20]

ON them all...

GL this week!!

 

[Hashish]

I turned that Seattle game off at halftime, thinking we had a sure winner. That was a classic show of Houston softness. As I told Jord, I think Kubiak is a weak coach. He coaches like the career backup. His team reflects his softness.

I really like Cincy, and I am leaning with you on your other two picks as well. Good luck this wekk, Hippo. I know everyone here appreciates your write-ups. :0008

 

[Happy Hippo]

Thanks guys - that Houston game was sick. I hate betting on teams with bad coaches, but really thought that was a strong spot.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Ravens - Dolphins

The Ravens seem to be inconsistent from quarter to quarter so far this season, but not including the Broncos games, they have made good halftime adjustments and outscored opponents 33-3 over their last three games in the second half. I think Harbaugh is a very good coach and will make the proper adjustments to get his team a win in Miami this Sunday. Against the Bills, Flacco passed the ball 31 straight times, and the Ravens ran the ball only nine times. Under Harbaugh, the Ravens are 11-4 ATS (73.3%) during the regular season after a game in which they rushed for less than 80 yards, with an average of 30.8 rushing attempts and 135.4 total rushing yards. The Ravens also only managed 2.7 yards per carry, and under Harbaugh they are 13-6-1 ATS (68.4%) after a game where they rushed for less than 3 yards per attempt. If they can rebound nicely as they have in the past, road dogs that rush for more than 100 yards cover the spread 66.1% of the time over the last five seasons. In their last three meetings against the Dolphins, they have averaged 36 rushing attempts with Harbaugh as coach, so there is good history to predict that they will try to run a lot against the Dolphins. Harbaugh called out the offensive line after their lackluster game against the Bills in which and they gave up four sacks, saying ?The whole O-line is disappointing right now."

No doubt that Harbaugh is a good coach, and will make some good adjustments going into the game against the Dolphins. The defense gave up 213 rushing yards to the Bills, after allowing only 224 over their first three games. But, turnovers ultimately cost them, as they got crushed in time of possession. They actually outgained the Bills on yards per play by over a yard. And, their defense showed up in the red zone. Decent teams (50% or better record on the season) that are coming off a road loss where they played very good red zone defense, holding teams to 3 or more red zone failures and at least one goal to go failure are 29-7 ATS (80.6%) since the 2006 season when playing as a road dog. These teams are also 24-13 O/U (64.9%).

Road dogs have a good ATS record in the Raven?s spot. Since the 2004 season, all teams coming off a road loss that are playing on the road with a line of -3 to +3 are 70-33 ATS (68%). Since the 2004 season, teams with a 50% winning record are 28-5 ATS (84.8%) when playing on the road with a line of -3 to +3 when they are coming off a loss. Since the 2006 season, teams coming off a home win, then a road loss, and are now playing as a road dog are 55-28 ATS (66.3%).

The Dolphins were somewhat exposed against the Saints, but that is a super tough place to play on Monday night football, where Brees and company have a stellar record. Now, they have a short week to prepare for the Ravens. Over the last five seasons, the Dolphins are 11-20 ATS (35.5%) when playing at home on less than 7 days rest. The Dolphins also have their bye in week 6, and teams that are playing in weeks 3-7 and have a bye week on deck are 39-56-1 ATS (41.1%) since the 2009 season. If both they and their opponent are off losses, teams are just 9-21 ATS (30%). The players had a big game against the Saints, and may be looking forward to some R&R in the nice Miami sun.

Teams coming off a road loss on Monday night football are 48-27 O/U (64%) since the 1989 season, and 71.4% O/U during the last ten seasons when playing as a home favorite against an opponent also coming off a loss.

Ravens +3
Ravens-Dolphins OVER 43.5

 

[Happy Hippo]

My full card:

Panthers -2 x2
Bengals pick x2
Bears pick x2
Ravens +3
Ravens-Dolphins OVER 43.5
Chargers-Raiders OVER 44.5

Have two more I'm looking at, but that may be all this week.



Good luck!

 

[WildBillPicks7]

My full card:

Panthers -2 x2
Bengals pick x2
Bears pick x2
Ravens +3
Ravens-Dolphins OVER 43.5
Chargers-Raiders OVER 44.5

Have two more I'm looking at, but that may be all this week.



Good luck!

GL HH!!

Hoops season is almost here!! :toast:

 

[stockjockey]

GL HH:0074

 

[Happy Hippo]

Thanks guys.


Since Cutler joined the Bears, they are 12-0 SU and 8-3-1 ATS (average line -3.8) at home against Dome teams, with an average margin of victory of over two touchdowns. Also, since Brees joined the Saints, they are 0-3 SU in Chicago, losing to them when Grossman and Orton were the QBs.

 

[Cie]

Thanks guys.


Since Cutler joined the Bears, they are 12-0 SU and 8-3-1 ATS (average line -3.8) at home against Dome teams, with an average margin of victory of over two touchdowns. Also, since Brees joined the Saints, they are 0-3 SU in Chicago, losing to them when Grossman and Orton were the QBs.

Plus, looks like wind and 58 high temp in Chicago on Sunday. Saints running game is poor at best. Bears obvious defensive liabilities are unlikely to be exploited by a one dimensional dome offense playing outdoors.

I am on Bears, too

 

[grindstone]

My full card:

Panthers -2 x2
Bengals pick x2
Bears pick x2
Ravens +3
Ravens-Dolphins OVER 43.5
Chargers-Raiders OVER 44.5

Have two more I'm looking at, but that may be all this week.



Good luck!

Hope you got on the Bills a little last week HH . Right now really like Cincy, Balt and the Bears. GL will add later this week

 

[Happy Hippo]

Hope you got on the Bills a little last week HH . Right now really like Cincy, Balt and the Bears. GL will add later this week

Nice, let me know if you see anything else!

 

[Happy Hippo]

Lions-Packers

The Lions had a great offensive outing in their last game against the Bears, putting up forty points and getting an important win against an undefeated team. At one point, the Lions scored three touchdowns in a span of 3 minutes, 26 seconds, but much of their scoring output was due to short fields given to them by Cutler?s four turnovers. Over the last four seasons, teams that won at home and are now playing as a road dog are just 15-29 ATS (34.1%) when they forced four or more turnovers in their last game. The Lions also have to transition from their home dome to a tough outdoor theater for this game. Over the last four seasons, the Lions are 4-8-1 ATS (33.3%) when playing on grass after playing on artificial surface. The Lions sure put up a lot of points against the Bears, but that doesn?t necessarily bode well for teams. Over the last five seasons, teams coming off a home win where they scored more than 30 points are 19-31 ATS (38.0%) when playing as a road dog against a team coming off a loss. With Stafford as QB, the Lions are 4-13 ATS (23.5%) after scoring more than 30 points in their last game.

Divisional games are big in the NFL, partly because opponents know each other better, and more obviously because of the playoff implications. In a league with so few games, the magnitude of divisional games is amplified. Good quarterbacks step up for big games. In his career, Rodgers is 23-8-1 ATS (74.2%) against divisional opponents. As a home favorite, Rodgers is 25-14-1 (64.1%) ATS, with an average margin of victory of over 12 points. Good teams rebound. The Packers are 21-11 (65.6%) ATS with Rodgers after they lost their last game ATS. Good quarterbacks prepare, especially with extra rest. Rodgers coming out of a bye week is 6-1 ATS (85.7%).

The Lions haven?t won in Green Bay since 1991, and since that year they have lost twenty-one straight and are 4-15 ATS at Lambeau. Sure, different teams, different personnel, but it is not an easy place to go in and win, and sometimes this kind of history looms over you. The Packers are desperate for a win, and I expect that they will give their best effort here. The Lions are coming off a big game against the Bears, and before that they played three fairly bad teams, possibly inflating their value so far this season.

Rodgers is 6-2 ATS in his career vs. Stafford. Under McCarthy, the Packers are 32-17 ATS (65.3%) at home as a favorite. Under Schwartz, the Lions are 9-15-1 ATS (37.5%) as a road dog. I?ve got no problem backing the better QB and better coach in this spot.

Packers -7

 

[grindstone]

Nothing in yet but things are starting to develop

Right now loving these

TENN (Could be Huge)
OAK
CINC

 

[Trojanman1516]

Welcome back HH!! Best capper on the site. Love the picks, I'll be tailing all season long and in NBA.

Any read on the eagles game? Both defenses are a joke, I'm thinking of reading Philly and the over.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Thanks trojanman - I've got nothing on the Eagles-Giants game. I try to avoid bottom feeders in general (and after losing with the Giants last week I had to remind myself of that)... and these two teams certainly qualify at this point.


Top 5 Hilton Supercontest Consensus picks have gone 4-15-1 so far this year. Today:

Patriots (330 picks)
Colts (323 picks)
Broncos (305 picks)
Chiefs (298 picks)
Texans (285 picks)



Have a wonderful Sunday, all.

Good luck!