Nfl Week 9

[Sixth Sense]

Only managed to go 2-3 last week but did win the 3% again and those top plays are now 5-1 this year.

All side opinions went 6-8 last week and they are now 59-53-3 53% over the first eight weeks this year.

Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.

League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1

NY GIANTS -2.5 NY JETS 38.5

No situations for either team here that I know of. I'll just ride with the better team. I talked last week about the Giants winning most of their games on the stat sheet, but losing because of the turnovers. That finally changed last week and they may be ready to make a large move in the next few weeks. Simply looking at both teams, from a yards gained perspective, shows the difference between these two. The Giants average 366 yards per game against teams allowing only 308 while the Jets are averaging just 295 yards per game against teams allowing 309, making the Giants offense above average and the Jets offense below average. On defense, the Giants are allowing just 316 yards per game against teams averaging 323 yards per game, while the Jets are allowing 312 yards per game against teams averaging 305 yards per game. The other favorable match ups for the Giants come out of their running game, which has been decent, averaging 3.9 ypr against teams allowing 3.7 ypr. That goes against a Jets defense, which is allowing a whopping 4.6 ypr against teams averaging 3.9 ypr. Favorable match up number two is in the passing game, where the Jets average 6.4 yps against teams allowing 4.8 yps but the Giants defend the pass very well, allowing just 5.5 yps against 6.0 yps. Last week the Giants held the potent Minnesota passing game (averaging 7.9 yps) to just 6.3 yps and they should limit the Jets attack this week. Better teams wins this game. NY GIANTS 20 NY JETS 16

BALTIMORE -7 Jacksonville 37

This is a contrarian play on Jacksonville in this game. Certainly Baltimore is the better team but hopefully they'll be thinking a little about their dominating win last week over Denver and their next two games on the road at St. Louis and Miami. I don't want to make too much about Jacksonville winning the stats last week against Tennessee because much of that came in catch up mode, after Tennessee had put the game away. Still, Jacksonville averaged 5.7 yppl to just 4.9 yppl for Tennessee and they still sport a solid defense, which is allowing just 4.9 yppl against 5.2 yppl this year. Last week, they only allowed Tennessee to gain 4.9 yppl and Tennessee is averaging 5.6 yppl this year. The downfall for Jacksonville was turnovers, losing that battle, 1-3. The strength of the Jacksonville defense is their rush defense, which is allowing just 3.2 ypr against 3.9 ypr this year. And they should match up well with Baltimore, who is running the ball for 5.4 ypr against teams allowing just 4.2 ypr. The weakness of the Jacksonville defense is their pass defense, as they allow 6.5 yps against 6.3 yps, but I don't see a poor Baltimore passing game taking advantage of that. Baltimore is averaging just 4.5 yps against 5.8 yps this year. The Jacksonville offense is just average, gaining 5.3 yppl against 5.3 yppl and they'll face a stiff test from Baltimore, who is allowing just 4.5 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Jacksonville qualifies in a couple of solid contrary situations, which are 289-210-10 and 108-56-5. That, along with a pretty favorable match up, gives them a chance in this game. Also, note Jacksonville came into the league in 1995, and since then, these teams have played 15 times. Baltimore has NEVER won any of these games by more than seven points. They won last year's game by seven points and have only five of those games. They have won the last five but only once by more than five points and that was last year when they won by only seven points. This includes when Jacksonville was an expansion teams and includes when Baltimore was on their Super Bowl run. Series history doesn't suggest a large win here. Successful contrary situations suggest a Jacksonville cover and the match up favors Jacksonville. BALTIMORE 24 JACKSONVILLE 21

Oakland -2.5 DETROIT 39

Two extremely disappointing teams match up here. At least in Detroit, you could say it was kind of expected. For Oakland, injuries and now dissension amongst the players are quickly going to lead this team to a "toss the towel" team in a few more weeks. The veterans on this team may just pack it in very quickly if things don't change. And why will they change. Oakland isn't doing anything well this year. They have rushed the ball ok this year, averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr but their vaunted passing game has been terrible, averaging just 5.2 yps against 5.8 yps. On defense, they have been even worse, allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl, including allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.2 yps against 5.8 yps. I don't see those numbers changing anytime soon, especially without Gannon. For Detroit, well, nothing better to report. They are terrible running and throwing the ball (3.9 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 4.6 yps against 5.6 yps) and on defense, they have been below average as well. It's been their pass defense, which has been so bad, allowing a whopping 6.7 yps against 6.0 yps. Their rush defense has actually been their lone bright spot, allowing just 4.1 ypr against 4.3 ypr. Detroit does qualify in my turnover table system, which is now 758-590-30. Turnovers are due to start going their way and they also qualify in a couple of subsets of that, which are 64-28-2 and 123-67-3. Final numbers support Detroit here as do the situations and I will lean their way. This game also qualifies in a 73-41-1 under situation, although my final numbers show about 40 points being scored. DETROIT 21 OAKLAND 17

CHICAGO -2.5 San Diego 40

A couple more teams headed nowhere. Hard to believe SD can really be ready for this game. Their season is a loss, they just had to move their last game to Arizona because of the California fires. They may have to move their game next week as well. They certainly have other things are their mind and left for Chicago early in the week because of the fires. So all their game planning has been on the road, not in their friendly confines, where they are used to getting everything done. SD does still rush the ball very well, gaining 5.1 ypr against 4.1 ypr and they will face a Bears defense, which is allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.4 ypr. Because of that SD qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 512-395-30(23-15-1 TY) but they don't qualify in any of the better subsets of that. For Chicago, the one thing they have done well is rush the ball, averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr but those numbers have declined the past couple of weeks without Anthony Thomas. He should be back this week. The weakness of the SD defense is their pass defense, allowing 6.4 yps against 5.7 yps but Chicago won't be able to take advantage of that, gaining just 4.0 yps against 5.9 yps this year. But, I do think the Bears can run the ball enough to do some damage. Chicago's win last week gives them some momentum and they qualify in a terrific home momentum situation, which is 108-64-11 (6-4 TY), including a subset of that, which is an outstanding 68-22-6 (5-2 TY). That situation is 13-3 when it plays on teams below .500 and 13-6 when playing against teams under .500 and 5-2-1 when both teams are under .500, so it works even with bad teams. My final numbers actually predict about 47 points being scored in this game but the game qualifies in a solid under situation, which is 73-41-1. CHICAGO 20 SAN DIEGO 17

 

[Sixth Sense]

MIAMI -3 Indianapolis 39

Peyton Manning is playing very well right now and has his team's passing game going strong. The Colts are now averaging 7.7 yps against 6.2 yps and they'll take on a Miami defense, which is allowing 6.1 yps against 5.9 yps. But, I still have great respect for the Dolphins secondary, which was torched badly the first two weeks but has played much better since then. Miami also does not allow teams to run on them, allowing just 3.0 ypr against 3.9 ypr and Indy hasn't been rushing the ball very well anyway, gaining just 3.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr. Indy will have some success in the air, because they are that good, but I see them having more problems trying to stop Miami than Miami trying to stop Indy. Indy is allowing a whopping 4.7 ypr against 3.9 ypr and although Miami isn't running the ball real well this year, averaging just 3.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr, Ricky Williams will get his carries in this game and have some success. Along with that, I believe that will open up the passing lanes a little more too. Miami qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 512-395-30 (23-15-1 TY) and they also qualify in the best subset of that, which is 136-57-6 (7-3-1 TY). They also qualify in another fundamental rushing situation, which is 70-29-3. Final numbers indicate about a three point game, but the situations favor Miami, giving them a little more value. Miami has also won four straight against Indy and should get the win on Sunday. Dolphins have gone under every week since week one and although my numbers show about 42 points being scored, this game also qualifies in a 294-220-11 (8-4 TY) under situation. MIAMI 21 INDIANAPOLIS 13

TAMPA BAY -8.5 New Orleans 39.5

I still have great respect for the TB defense, even though they have slipped a little this year, due somewhat to injuries. But I like this match up for New Orleans. Teams that can run the ball at TB have a shot and NO can run the ball. NO gained 118 and 102 yards against TB last year and although their yards per rush weren't that good, the point was they were able to control the ball with a ground game. TB won last week to put them one game over .500 but since 1983, teams that do that and are then favored by five or more facing a team at .500 or below, tend to relax a bit. There's a little more to that situation but the situation is now 52-23-1 going against those favorites. NO also qualifies as a turnover table play, which means the turnovers should start going in their favor and against TB. That situation is now 758-590-30. NO also qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 289-210-10. The numbers appears to be about right in this game but the situations indicate TB may let up a little bit (yes, I know they have double revenge against these guys) and that NO should have some success as a contrary play here. Contrary wins in the NFL and it wins again in this game. This game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 76-41-2 and 3-0 this year, including last weeks win with HOU/INDY. My final numbers show about 36 points being scored but that's close enough, given the strong situation to the over. TAMPA BAY 24 NEW ORLEANS 21

DALLAS -4 Washington 38

A lot of problems in Washington right now. Washington is starting to revert back to the Washington of last year, all pass and no run, but this year injuries are also hurting their defense. The Redskins are allowing 6.4 yps against teams averaging just 5.6 yps, while Dallas is averaging 6.7 yps against teams allowing 6.1 yps. So, basically, Washington can't stop the pass and Dallas has been very good passing the ball. Final numbers also favor Dallas by 7 to 10 points. So why is Dallas only a four point favorite? The linemaker can see the same things we all see. Washington does qualify in my turnover table system, which is 758-590-30. Based on that alone, I will side with Washington, in a game I think is better left alone. The over might be a good call in this game. DALLAS 26 WASHINGTON 23

Carolina -6.5 HOUSTON 37

I have no situations that favor either team here but finally, for the first time in about four weeks, Houston gets a match up that gives them a better chance to win. For the past three weeks, Houston has faced terrific passing teams and they don't defend the pass well, allowing 8.1 yps against 6.8 yps. But this week they face Carolina, who only averages 5.4 yps against 6.3 yps. Carolina does run the ball well, averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr and Houston hasn't defended the run well either, allowing 4.2 ypr against 3.8 ypr, but I think they stand a better chance facing a running team than a passing team. The Houston offense has done a nice job as of late, especially running the ball. Last week they ran for 131 yards at 4.7 ypr and Dominick Davis looks like the real thing. My numbers support Houston and I will lean that way. CAROLINA 21 HOUSTON 17

Cincinnati -3 ARIZONA 39.5

Arizona racked up 221 yards at 5.0 ypr last week in their win over SF. And I'm quite sure they will look to run the ball again this week. For the year, however, they are only averaging 3.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr and Cincinnati is allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr, so it doesn't look like they'll have any great advantages there. The weakness to the Cincinnati defense is their pass defense, allowing 6.3 yps against 5.4 yps, but it remains to be seen if Arizona can take advantage of that or not. Arizona is only averaging 5.6 yps against 5.6 yps. For Cincinnati, I doubt they will run the ball well in this game, averaging only 3.2 ypr against 4.1 ypr and Arizona is only allowing 3.7 ypr against 4.3 ypr. But, Cincinnati should be able to throw the ball, as they average a solid 6.2 yps against 5.3 yps and Arizona is allowing 6.7 yps against 5.9 yps. Arizona does qualify in a momentum situation based on their win last week, which is 153-105-10. Final numbers lean towards Cincinnati but I'll lean with the situation and Arizona at home. They figure to be able to run the ball better. Although my final numbers support a high scoring game, this game qualifies in a 294-220-11 (8-4 TY) under situation. CINCINNATI 17 ARIZONA 16

 

[Sixth Sense]

SEATTLE -4.5 Pittsburgh 44.5

Steelers really let me down last week and they were never in the game, allowing the Rams to gain a whopping 448 yards at 5.9 yppl, while only gaining 245 yards at 5.1 yppl themselves. The Seattle final was a little misleading last week as they out gained Cincinnati 462-412 and 6.7 yppl to 6.2 yppl. Five turnovers did them in and cost them the game. The Pittsburgh offense has been terrible this year, especially trying to run the ball, averaging just 3.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr. Their passing game is above average but not by much, averaging just 5.7 yps against 5.6 yps and they'll get a tough test this week against a good Seahawk pass defense, which is allowing just 5.2 yps against 5.9 yps. The Seattle offense is finally starting to gel and they are now above average with both, the run and the pass, averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 6.3 yps against 5.9 yps. Their strong rushing game sets them up in a 128-50-7 fundamental rushing situation. Pittsburgh does qualify in my turnover table system, but I will lean with the rushing situation and what I feel is the better team. Final numbers greatly favor Seattle by 9 to 15 points. SEATTLE 27 PITTSBURGH 17

Philadelphia -4.5 ATLANTA 40

Probably a good game to pass on seeing I have quite a few technical situations on Atlanta and the fundamental situations are with Philadelphia. Atlanta has benched their entire secondary so we'll see if that helps or further hinders their ability to stop teams. Their defense has been abysmal so far, allowing 6.3 yppl against 5.3 yppl, including 4.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr and a whopping 8.2 yps against 6.4 yps. Meanwhile, the offense hasn't done anything, averaging just 4.8 yppl against 5.0 yppl. I don't see Atlanta moving the ball much on offense, knowing Philly is allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl and is now above average against both, the run and the pass. On offense, however, I expect Philly to be able to move the ball on the ground. They average 5.0 ypr against 4.0 ypr and that should fit just fine against the porous Atlanta rush defense. Philly qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 512-395-30(23-15-1 TY) and a subset of that, which is 318-213-16 (15-8-1). Atlanta does qualify in some contrary situations, which are 54-20-1 and 39-15-0, which are enough to keep me off of Philly. I'll still lean with the better fundamental team. The over could be a good play in this game. PHILADELPHIA 27 ATLANTA 17

St. Louis -4 SAN FRANCISCO 45

Well, here I go again. Week number five in a row that I have gone against St. Louis. And, yes, I know I haven't won any of those yet. But, I'll try it again. Once again the Rams qualify in negative situations and SF qualifies in some solid situations of their own. Garcia won't play in this game but the 49ers will look to run the ball and I don't think that will be a problem. I still don't think the Rams are that good of a team. Their offense is playing well, but their defense continues to be below average, allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.1 yppl, including a horrendous rush defense, which is allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr. That rush defense didn't get much of a test last week against a poor running team like Pittsburgh (although it did allow 5.2 ypr), but it will have it's hands full against a solid rushing team like SF this week. SF gained 148 yards at 5.7 ypr in their first meeting this year and I expect more of the same this week. The Rams offense hasn't been able to rush the ball this year, averaging just 3.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr but their passing game is really taking off, averaging 6.8 yps against 6.1 yps. They'll get a good test against a SF secondary that is allowing just 5.3 yps against 5.8 yps. The lowest average the Rams have had this year was against the 49ers in their first meeting, where they averaged just 4.6 yps. The 49ers were burned against Minnesota for 11.0 yps but that was more of the street ball-throw it up to Randy Moss and see if he can catch it- type play. And, doesn't Minnesota seem to burn everybody through the air? Take out that game and their pass defense has been solid. They will give up some yards to the Rams because StL can throw the ball but the ability of SF to control this game on the ground gives them a great chance. SF has lost only one game this year by more than three points and that was to the Vikings. The 49ers qualify in three different fundamental rushing situations, which are 107-52-6, 512-395-30 (23-15-1 TY), including a subset, which is 415-293-23 (17-10-1 TY) and a 128-50-7 situation. All of those situations are a bit different but they indicate SF should have some success on the ground and when that happens, it leads to covers. SF is also due to bounce back after last week's embarrassing loss to Arizona, and they qualify in a 70-39-1 bounce back situation based on that. They also qualify in another bounce back situation that played on TB last week, which is 121-67-4. Meanwhile, the Rams qualify in a negative situation, after scoring so many points again last week, which is a 79-43-5 play against situation. Final numbers support the 49ers in this game, and their ability to rush the ball and defend the Rams, gives them an excellent chance to win this game SU. SF has also played six straight to the under. SAN FRANCISCO 24 ST LOUIS 17

 

[Sixth Sense]

MINNESOTA -4.5 Green Bay 48.5

Much will be made about GB's inability to win in domes, on carpet and at Minnesota. They will also talk about Minnesota having already won in GB earlier. But let's look at a few facts first that might not make this game quite so easy for Minnesota. In many of those games, GB came in favored, just like last year when they were favored by 6.5 points. Quite obviously, when you get down by ten points as a -6.5 point favorite, it's going to make it tough to cover a spread. But, when you're getting 4.5 points and are down by ten, you're only one score away from covering the game. And, that's the biggest difference in this game and many other games played here. Since 1992 (when Favre started playing with GB), the Packers are just 6-17-0 in domes when they are getting three or less points (also favored), but when GB is getting more than three points, they are 6-2 (3-0 at Minnesota). These numbers are for regular season only. Give a good team points on the road, when they aren't expected to do anything, and they will oblige. GB has won four of those eight games straight up (1 of 3 at Minnesota), while two of the three losses were by four and three points (Both at Minnesota). Coming in as a favorite, teams have been fired up to beat them. But, as dogs, all of a sudden, they don't appear to be quite as good anymore, and teams relax a little against them. So just remember things are a little different when they are dogs as opposed to being a favorite. I also have been talking about Minnesota winning because they have been creating turnovers and how that will probably reverse itself in the very near future. That was just one of the reasons I had a best bet against Minnesota last week and the Vikings lost the turnover battle, 1-2, and the game. GB lost at home to Minnesota to open the season but they also turned the ball over five times in that game. If they do that again, they won't win or cover but if they win the turnover battle, they will cover this game and probably win it straight up. And they stand a good chance of doing just that because they qualify in my turnover system, which is now 758-590-30.

But the best play in this game, IMO, is the total. I love the over in this game for the following reasons. There have been plenty of points scored here in each of the last three meetings, with the lowest point total being 48 points and the other two games seeing 52 and 61 points being scored. Both team's offenses are playing extremely well and both team's defenses are below average. GB is simply banged up on defense and that makes it hard to consistently stop anyone, especially a great Minnesota offense. The Vikings are allowing less points per game than their opponents are averaging because of the turnovers, but the real story is their yards per play allowed, which is 5.4 yppl against teams averaging just 5.0 yppl, which means they are giving up the yards. If teams don't turn the ball over, they will score on this young defense. GB is allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.2 yppl. The Vikings offense has been nothing short of spectacular, especially the passing game, which is averaging 7.9 yps against 6.0 yps. They'll face a Packer's secondary that should be a little healthier after their bye, but one that is still allowing 6.0 yps against 6.0 yps. But, lost in all of this is the GB offense, which is averaging 29 points per game against teams allowing just 22 points (Minnesota is 28 versus 23), averaging 354 yards per game against teams allowing 327 (Minnesota is 372 versus 332), averaging 5.8 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl (Minnesota is 6.2 yppl versus 5.2). And the Packers are doing it with balance, averaging 4.9 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 6.5 yps against 5.9 yps. That bodes very, very well against a Viking defense that is allowing 6.1 yps against teams averaging just 5.4 yps. The Vikings defense is not that good, unless they force turnovers, and I don't think they will do that. My final numbers in this game show about 54 points being scored. GB has now lost two games in a row and since Favre came to GB, when they have lost two games in a row, get a look at these numbers. GB has gone over, after losing two in a row, in 14 of 18 games. When GB is favored by four or less in those games (dog as well - competitive games with a low line), they have gone over the total in 11 of 12 games. When GB comes in under .500, they have gone over in 12 of 14 games. When GB's opponent is greater than or equal to .500, they have gone over in 9 of 10 games. If it's a divisional game, they have gone over in 8 of 9 games. When the total is 40 or less, they have gone over the total 13 of 14 games. So, you say, but wait, this total is 48.5 points. Well, know this. If GB's win percentage is .250 or better and the line is -4 or lower (or a dog), they have gone over 10 out of 10 times and if the total is 39 or higher, they have gone over the total 4 out of 4 times, including one total, which was set at 51. The other three were 39.5 twice and 40 once. But, in those four games, they went over the total by 17.5, 23.5, 25 and 8 points. The 8 point cover was on the 51 total. They covered the total by an average of 18 points and averaged 61 points in those four games. What does all this mean? They have lost two games in a row, which means they will be focused and come with their best effort (averaging over 25 points in these games). GB has changed their offense since their week one game against Minnesota. They are going to a lot more rollouts by Favre, which helps him buy time. That combined with his great anticipation of defenders breathing down his neck, allow him to escape sacks and make completions. This is a very good GB offense, facing a below average Viking defense. The same is true on the other side of the ball. Plenty of points in this Sunday night showdown. MINNESOTA 30 GREEN BAY 27

DENVER -2 New England 35.5

Denver comes into this game needing a win badly, having lost two consecutive games. But both those losses came on the road, and for winning teams, that's not all bad. Winning teams coming off after consecutive road losses are now 30-9-1 since 1983. There's a little more to that but basically these teams are focused to get a win, the line is usually in their favor because the public only remembers how bad they have looked the past two weeks. NE also qualifies in a letdown situation, which is a 32-9-3 play against them. NE has also won and covered four straight and that doesn't bode well for them here. Because of that, in this situation, they qualify in a very solid letdown spot that is a 62-25-4 play against them, once again providing a low line for Denver bettors. The Broncos are due to begin getting some turnovers to go their way and they qualify as a turnover table play for me as well, which is now 758-590-30 since 1983. The Denver defense, despite losing two key linebackers, is still solid. They are allowing just 4.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl, and have been solid against both, the run and pass. The one area NE has done decent in this year is throwing the ball, as they average 5.8 yps against teams allowing 5.7 yps but Denver has been outstanding defending the pass, allowing just 4.9 yps against 5.8 yps. The NE defense is playing very good ball right now, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 4.9 yppl but they'll get a great test against a great Bronco rushing attack, which is averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.2 ypr. I realize Denver has problems at the quarterback spot right now but they'll move the ball enough on the ground. Playing at home will help this offense quite a bit. Denver qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 128-50-7 and my numbers favor them by about 3-5 points, giving us a little value along with some solid situations. They also have a great history of being able to beat NE, having won six of the last eight meetings between these two teams over the last ten years, winning those games by an average of 12 points per game, including a win at NE last year by eight points and two years ago in Denver by 11 points. Value, fundamental, letdown, bounce back situations and past series history dominance all lead to a Denver cover on Monday night in a basic "just win" type of setting. DENVER 20 NEW ENGLAND 10

BEST BETS

YTD 21-20-1 +1.90%

3% DENVER -2

2% JACKSONVILLE +7
2% MIAMI -3
2% NEW ORLEANS +8.5
2% SAN FRANCISCO +4
2% GB/MINN OVER 48.5

 

[pt1gard]

thanx 6th best info on bd as usual

thanx 6th best info on bd as usual

like Fish, but going against U in rare defiance hehe liking rams ...


gl, gregg

 

[eman]

Good Luck

 

[eire]

Great write ups!!! Thanx for the info.
Best of luck this week!!

 

[OtroPex]

Damn Sixth - you were on page 4...:shrug:

:bump:

Good Luck on the Top Play!

 

[Sixth Sense]

Yeah, and a 3-1-1 week and 10-2-1 on opinions. Let's hope the last one comes in tonight. GL Otro!!

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Outstanding post and results!

Thanks for the very thought-provoking material, especially the stats and angle-based leans.

I know it's tough to take a position on every game, but that you have here Sixth Sense, is excellent.

-- Nolan Dalla