I hope you all had a great holiday and are ready for Wildcard Weekend and the start of the NFL Playoffs.
My personal betting season came to an end after Week 15 - I know that is likely not the case for many reading this. I am not trying to discourage wagering on the playoffs, but keep in mind, you are betting against the tightest markets all season. With just four games on schedule, no one has an edge anymore. If you will be wagering in January, be smart, keep the stakes small and for recreational purposes only.
With that said, here is my take on the four Wildcard match-ups.
Where are our customers betting so far this week?
$4.85 on Carolina for each $1 on Arizona.
$1.60 on Baltimore for each $1 on Pittsburgh.
$2.10 on Indianapolis for each $1 on Cincinnati.
$5.30 on Dallas for each $1 on Detroit.
Arizona @ Carolina
I opened this game early Sunday evening at Carolina -3 and have since moved it up to its current price on Thursday afternoon of Carolina -6. Both recreational and advantage players were on the same side (Carolina) early in the week, and drove the line up very quickly.
Carolina has really won over our customers in the past four weeks. They went from 3-8-1 to the ?smart/trendy? pick this post season. Arizona, despite winning 11 games, never had our customers? attention and are being treated like the one team that doesn?t belong. As it stands right now, our customers have risked $4.85 on Carolina for each $1 on Arizona, between -3 and -6.
NetYPP suggests the point spread for this game should be Carolina -5.5, which is exactly where it is.
I can think of many ways to better spend your time on a Saturday afternoon than watching or betting this game. The current price on Carolina is way too high and no one can make a valid argument for backing Arizona away from home.
Stay far away from this one.
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
I should really value the Ravens more than I do. They finished the season fourth in Net Yards Per Play and rank #4 in defensive efficiency and #10 in offensive efficiency, yet when I watch them live, they don?t do much for me. Going with my eyes over my head may have cost me as I opened Pittsburgh -4 and have since had to move down to Pittsburgh -3 because of a couple big bets on Baltimore late on Sunday.
This game is the biggest recreational/advantage player divide. We have seen a lot of recreational love for Pittsburgh, but our big advantage players have been all over Baltimore. Currently, our customers have bet $1.60 bet on Baltimore for each $1 on Pittsburgh, but nearly 3X more bets on the Steelers.
The Steelers finished the reason ranked 4[SUP]th[/SUP] worst in defensive efficiency. They are allowing teams to gain 103% of their average gain per rush and 112% of their average gain per pass. This lack of efficiency should allow Baltimore to do whatever they wish on offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers 4[SUP]th[/SUP] most efficient offense (gaining 109% of opponents average allowance) should appear average by the Ravens 4[SUP]th[/SUP] most efficient defense (holding teams to 93% of their average gain).
In fact, if you multiply the Steelers offensive factor 1.09 by the Ravens defensive factor 0.93, the Steelers offensive expectancy becomes 1.01, or 101%...just one percentage point above average.
The numbers suggest the Ravens are a good bet Saturday night, but any value in the line is now gone. If you got in early, great, if not, wait to play another day.
Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
I opened this game immediately after Sunday Night Football at Colts -7.5 and got blind-sided by Cincinnati money. Later in the evening Sportsbooks in the US began opening Indianapolis -4.5. This appears to be another case where initially I put a little more stock in my eyes than I did my head. An on-going battle I will continue to fight as long as I am in this profession.
On paper, these teams are two average to above average teams. In-fact, Indianapolis is far more average than Cincinnati.
The Colts did what was expected of them on offense and on defense this season. They gained 101% of their opponent?s average allowance (12[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league) and allowed teams to gain 101% of their average gain (17[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league). Overall as a team on a per play basis, they rank 15[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league.
Now, this may be confusing to some readers considering in the ?overall game stats? you see Indianapolis ranked constantly in the Top 5. This is a product of having the easiest schedule in 2014. To find out how a team performed, you must factor in their opponents? performance, something overall stats do not do. Upon closer look, the numbers Indianapolis finished the season with?are exactly what we all should have expected, almost to the exact percentage point.
On just a points scored/allowed basis, their expected win total for the year was 10 wins. According to expected wins, Indianapolis over performed by a full win this season.
Cincinnati on the other hand, above average offense (gained 103% of their opponents average allowance) and above average on defense (held opponents to just 97% of their average gain).
NetYPP says Indianapolis -6.
Are you confused yet?
Our customers have bet $2.10 on Indianapolis between -4.5 and -7.5 to every $1 on Cincinnati. The biggest bet we took on this game was a limit bet on Cincinnati at +7.
I am flip flopping on this game as are many others. Some numbers say Cincinnati, others say Indianapolis. I thought I had a beat on this one, clearly, I don?t. I say stay far away from this one.
Detroit @ Dallas
The last game of Wildcard Weekend may be the only game that makes sense. I opened this game at Dallas -7.5 and have since moved it down to Dallas -6.5. Our customers have bet $5.30 on Dallas for each $1 on Detroit. Why the line move? Six of our ten biggest bets booked this weekend so far have been on the Lions. This game has been almost strictly recreational money on Dallas, advantage player money on Detroit.
Dallas is the perfect matchup for Detroit. The Cowboys weakness (D) evens out the Lions weakness (O) while the Lions strength (D) neutralizes the Cowboys strength (O).
Detroit is one of two teams in the NFC that can make Dallas completely one dimensional on offense. The Lions have held teams to just 77% of their average gain per rush this season. Multiplying that vs. the Cowboys 110% rushing factor, we should expect the Cowboys to gain just 84% of their average gain per rush. That translates into an expectancy of 3.7 yards per rush, a number that would have ranked 27[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league this season.
Dallas has the least efficient defense in the playoffs this season, allowing teams to gain 104% of their average gain overall and more importantly, 105% of their average gain per pass. Detroit, has been completely inept on offense the entire year, but their horrid, gaining 90% of opponents average allowance, good for 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in the league turns into 96% vs. Dallas. To give you an idea, 96% would have ranked 21[SUP]st[/SUP] in the league this season. Quite a considerable difference.
NetYPP suggests the point spread should be Dallas -3, which is probably a very fair number. Dallas has the smallest home field advantage of any team in the playoffs at just 3 points. These two teams on a neutral field are close to even. There is a ton of perception tied into this line. Dallas has the biggest customer following of any team this Wildcard Weekend, and also sits in the late Sunday time slot. The Cowboys will be virtually every customer?s last chance, double down team. I admit I was likely greedy at -7.5, as were many other books, but this line should not close too much lower than where it is now.
The Lions should give you your monies worth this weekend if you choose to bet on them. |
<tbody>
</tbody> |
<tbody>
</tbody> |
<tbody>
</tbody> |
