Baltimore @ Cinci over 37
League: 23-6-1 over (Av. total 40.7...av. score 45.5) away 7+ dog, off a 3- SU win as home 7- dog. [Balt]
11-0 over (Av. total 41.0...av. score 53.4!!) if opp was last @ home.
League: 6-1 over (Av. total 39.3...av. score 45.7) home 7+ fav off any ats loss as a home dog. [Cinci]
Now, clearly, Baltimore are no Indi offensively :mj07: ...but they will be able to move the ball on this Cinci D which is allowing 4.5 y/rush and 40% 3rd down conversion.
What is a bit surprising in this game is the Baltimore D, which has given up 25, 35, 10 (Chicago), 20 & 30 on the road this season...@ 24ppg...27.5 if we take out the horrid Bears. (Offensively speaking of course!)
Cinci will score in this game, but 9 is a lot to cover...I prefer to say that Balti will only need to score 14-17 to send this one 'over'.
TB -3 (2.12)
League: 36-29-2 (Av. win 3.2) home 3- fav off a 7+ ats win as away 7- dog. [TB]
(15-4-1 (Av. win 7.4) if total is <37...inc. TB 19-3 Buff as -2.5 this season)
9-1-1 (Av. win 12.7) if opp is off an upset SU win....8-0 (Av. win 14.9!) if total is <40!!
League: 5-21-3 (Av. loss 14.4!) any away dog off a 10+ ats win as any home dog, if opp is off a 7+ ats win.[Chic]
I really like how this game sets up.
SO many people got burnt by Chicago last week (there was a huge % of people on Carolina), that now we get a soft line because a) Most of those people will be chasing the $$ back from the Bears; or b) at least they will be thining twice about backing against them.
Both teams have solid running games, and great defenses, but TB have a distinct advantage @ QB, with Simms really starting to play well.
Really, Chicago have only played one decent team on the road so far...they lost 9-7 @ Washington, but were completely out-played. (-157 yards, 11 1st downs to 18, 25:45 possession to 34:15)
Really like this game, at a great price.
Seattle -4.5 (2.02)
League: 17-4 (Av. win 15.7!) as any home fav, off any ats loss as an away 10+ fav. [Seattle]
(7-0 (Av. win 15.4) if they are 7- favs)
12-1 (Av. win 16.4) if they won SU but didn't cover.
NYG have played just 3 games on the road this season!..and although Eli is definately improving, he has still won just one game on the road in his career, and that was @ a terrible SF.
Seattle's no 1. ranked offense really should have a big day against a pretty ordinary Giants D...and they allow just 13.2 ppg @ home.
NYG might be in this one for a while, but Manning will make a couple of mistakes under heavy pressure (Seattle have the most sacks this season) and Seattle will take full advantage.
Miami @ Oakland under 42.5
Have been hanging out for the extra half point here, but I don't think it's going to happen.
Basically Oakland have a hugely over-rated offense. They have topped 20 only 3 times this season, and all to poor defenses:
38 v. Buff (25th in the NFL for ypp allowed)
23 @ KC (26th)
34 @ Tenn (27th)
Miami are 10th.
Even if Oakland do get on some kind of scoring roll, Miami average just 11.0 ppg on the road, and their 5 away games this season have gone 24, 35, 40, 27 & 22...@ 29.4.
Frerotte is carrying a sore wrist...Rosenfels is going to struggle mightily on the road. Miami have little chance but to try to stay in this game with their running game and strong defense.
Cleveland @ Minni under 39.5
This is big total for a Cleveland game...they have gone over this number only 3 times all season...only once since wk. 2 (21-34 @ Pits)...and only then, there were 21 points in the last 4:23 of the game, precipitated by a blocked FG that was returned for a TD...
...and speaking of cheap points...We have the Vikings!
On the surface 20, 24 & 27 points in the last 3 weeks is a good effort...But 7 of the 20 @ GB was a returned INT TD....21 points of the 24 @ NYG didn't come from the offense...and 27 points v. Detroit included a 'drive' of 3 plays, 14 yards TD; and 3 plays 11 yards TD from two Detroit turn-overs.
As I mentioned last week, Cleveland score more FG's than TD's (15-18), but are equally effective as keeping the opp from the endzone (17 & 17).
Minni just don't have a vertical passing game with Johnson @ QB, so now are running a lot more...in fact in the last 3 games they have run 93 times to just 82 passes.
There should be plenty of long, time-consuming drives here, and neither team will find the end-zone with ease.
Good Luck all
League: 23-6-1 over (Av. total 40.7...av. score 45.5) away 7+ dog, off a 3- SU win as home 7- dog. [Balt]
11-0 over (Av. total 41.0...av. score 53.4!!) if opp was last @ home.
League: 6-1 over (Av. total 39.3...av. score 45.7) home 7+ fav off any ats loss as a home dog. [Cinci]
Now, clearly, Baltimore are no Indi offensively :mj07: ...but they will be able to move the ball on this Cinci D which is allowing 4.5 y/rush and 40% 3rd down conversion.
What is a bit surprising in this game is the Baltimore D, which has given up 25, 35, 10 (Chicago), 20 & 30 on the road this season...@ 24ppg...27.5 if we take out the horrid Bears. (Offensively speaking of course!)
Cinci will score in this game, but 9 is a lot to cover...I prefer to say that Balti will only need to score 14-17 to send this one 'over'.
TB -3 (2.12)
League: 36-29-2 (Av. win 3.2) home 3- fav off a 7+ ats win as away 7- dog. [TB]
(15-4-1 (Av. win 7.4) if total is <37...inc. TB 19-3 Buff as -2.5 this season)
9-1-1 (Av. win 12.7) if opp is off an upset SU win....8-0 (Av. win 14.9!) if total is <40!!
League: 5-21-3 (Av. loss 14.4!) any away dog off a 10+ ats win as any home dog, if opp is off a 7+ ats win.[Chic]
I really like how this game sets up.
SO many people got burnt by Chicago last week (there was a huge % of people on Carolina), that now we get a soft line because a) Most of those people will be chasing the $$ back from the Bears; or b) at least they will be thining twice about backing against them.
Both teams have solid running games, and great defenses, but TB have a distinct advantage @ QB, with Simms really starting to play well.
Really, Chicago have only played one decent team on the road so far...they lost 9-7 @ Washington, but were completely out-played. (-157 yards, 11 1st downs to 18, 25:45 possession to 34:15)
Really like this game, at a great price.
Seattle -4.5 (2.02)
League: 17-4 (Av. win 15.7!) as any home fav, off any ats loss as an away 10+ fav. [Seattle]
(7-0 (Av. win 15.4) if they are 7- favs)
12-1 (Av. win 16.4) if they won SU but didn't cover.
NYG have played just 3 games on the road this season!..and although Eli is definately improving, he has still won just one game on the road in his career, and that was @ a terrible SF.
Seattle's no 1. ranked offense really should have a big day against a pretty ordinary Giants D...and they allow just 13.2 ppg @ home.
NYG might be in this one for a while, but Manning will make a couple of mistakes under heavy pressure (Seattle have the most sacks this season) and Seattle will take full advantage.
Miami @ Oakland under 42.5
Have been hanging out for the extra half point here, but I don't think it's going to happen.
Basically Oakland have a hugely over-rated offense. They have topped 20 only 3 times this season, and all to poor defenses:
38 v. Buff (25th in the NFL for ypp allowed)
23 @ KC (26th)
34 @ Tenn (27th)
Miami are 10th.
Even if Oakland do get on some kind of scoring roll, Miami average just 11.0 ppg on the road, and their 5 away games this season have gone 24, 35, 40, 27 & 22...@ 29.4.
Frerotte is carrying a sore wrist...Rosenfels is going to struggle mightily on the road. Miami have little chance but to try to stay in this game with their running game and strong defense.
Cleveland @ Minni under 39.5
This is big total for a Cleveland game...they have gone over this number only 3 times all season...only once since wk. 2 (21-34 @ Pits)...and only then, there were 21 points in the last 4:23 of the game, precipitated by a blocked FG that was returned for a TD...
...and speaking of cheap points...We have the Vikings!
On the surface 20, 24 & 27 points in the last 3 weeks is a good effort...But 7 of the 20 @ GB was a returned INT TD....21 points of the 24 @ NYG didn't come from the offense...and 27 points v. Detroit included a 'drive' of 3 plays, 14 yards TD; and 3 plays 11 yards TD from two Detroit turn-overs.
As I mentioned last week, Cleveland score more FG's than TD's (15-18), but are equally effective as keeping the opp from the endzone (17 & 17).
Minni just don't have a vertical passing game with Johnson @ QB, so now are running a lot more...in fact in the last 3 games they have run 93 times to just 82 passes.
There should be plenty of long, time-consuming drives here, and neither team will find the end-zone with ease.
Good Luck all
