NFLX Wk. 4

MrChristo

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13-12-1 (Pointless springs to mind! :rolleyes: )

Week 4 ? road teams with 2 or more wins are 18-3 ATS versus home teams with one win.

PLAY: Atlanta +3.5; San Fran +6.5

St. Louis -2.5

KC have big problems at QB with Green unlikely to be risked, Collins out and Huard doubtful, leaving Quinn playing "significant time" and Kilian. Nasty!
Of course the Rams' starters won't see much playing time, but Martin, Fitzpatrick and Smoker have all looked good, so they should be able to score against a pretty awful KC D.

Detroit @ Buffalo under 37

Detroit's lack of scoring can be put down to 2 things; being happy to run a very vanilla offense, and the usual lack of ground game, which hurts them in the red zone.
You wouldn't think either of these things would change this week, esp. up against one of the NFL's best D's.
Buffalo aren't exactly a scoring machine themselves. They have run the ball more times than they have thrown it so far, and Detroit's run D isn't too bad.
Detroit are 0-5 under in their last 5 pre-season games on the road.

Oakland v. New Orleans under 41.5

Much like Detroit, the Raiders appear happy to go through the motions and not show too much on offense. The starters will be in only for a series or two then Tuiasosopo (who has been struggling) will get plenty of time, followed by Walter.
NO's pass D has been quite good, and I don't think Oakland will be able to take advantage of their terrible run D.
Oakland D has been surprisingly good too so far, and with NO back-ups getting plenty of time, I can't really see this one ending in a shoot-out.

Pittsburgh @ Carolina under 37.5

Pittsburgh have been horrible offensively so far. No Bettis, Staley, Parker, so Haynes will see most of the running plays.
Carolina starters will see "very minimal" action.
These teams have played wach other in the last pre-season game in the past 2 years, for scores of 21-14 and 16-13.

TB v. Houston under 37.5

Both teams seem intent on pounding the ball along the ground.
Tampa starters will be out "fairly early" and the Houston starters will be in for less than 10 plays.
Capers isn't concerned about last week's lack of production offensively and it won't affect the script for this game.
Reports out of the Houston camp are that they are really focussing on Wk. 1, so every chance they want to get this game over and done with as quickly as possible.
Last year's final pre-season game went 17-9, and the 3 previous meetings have all gone under this number.

Good Luck all :cool:
 

smurphy

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Hey Christo, your record looks very similar to mine. At least the books aint makin' any money off us!

Nice writeups as usual. Go Niners!

Gruden wants to experiment with his kickers tonight. That should add a little drama to our UNDER call.
 
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MrChristo

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LOL! Drama with kickers, smurphy??? Na! surely not!!! :D

Still playing around with the Tenn/GB game.

The Titans are playing the starters into the 3rd quarter (minus McNair maybe, but Volek has been putting up better numbers anyway)...Green Bay a bit up in the air with the whole Favre factor.

The very game last year had Tenn -7 for the same reasons (ie. Tenn starters playing deep, GB not so) and they won 27-7...

However I'm leaning more towards the under. The Titans O-line was consistantly beaten last week (I hope that's a good sign for the 49er's ;)).
Tenn have been giving up most of their yards on the ground, but GB done nothing so far...can't see them scoring much here again.

Teaser maybe? Tenn -1.5 and under 47....

wth, it's the last week of pre-season, might play the under and Tenn for half a unit each.
 

MrChristo

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Tennesee v. Green Bay under 41

Green Bay just can't score at all. Their offense is horrible, and with Green very unlikely tonight, and Favre with bigger things on his mind...he may not even play.
Tennessee's O-line is struggling, so there's been no long throwing downfield. The Titans' scores have been inflated by an INT return and a kick return for TD's.
The same game last year was 27-7, with a INT being returned for a TD. Green Bay are 0-7 under in the last 2 years NFLX.
 
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smurphy

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Freudian slip with the "Houston" Titans?

I was about to say something about that UNDER. Looks like Titans won't have any of their top 3 RB's either. When Larry Croom is your starter, you have problems. Seems like a bargain at 41.
 
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