Nhl Ml Dogtracker Day 2 :

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

keeping track of NHL ML DOGS

last nite:

DOG TRACKER TIME:

Edmonton 110 WON
Toronto 120 WON
Pittsburgh 230 WON
Calgary 145 WON
Atlanta 240 LOST
New Jersey 125 LOST
Ottawa 105 PUSH

RECORD SINCE MARCH 5th: 4-2-1 (+4.05 units)

remember guys, usually this stuff evens out in the long haul...but let's see what happens.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

tonite's ML dogs:


Florida 125 LOST CLOSE GAME
Minnesota 110 LOST CLOSE GAME
Carolina 165 WON
Nashville 200 WON

 

[Ice Picks]

WOOF WOOF

WOOF WOOF

TV

It may not be a bad ploy to bet on ALL the dogs the rest of the year. Is that what you are doing??


Of 933 games played this year, FAVS have won 475 and DOGS have won 458. With the ususal +120 odds or more you would be ahead for the year...


Unders are also prevailing 58% to 42% Overs////


IP

 

[Joey Baseball]

If bet ML dogs all yeat at avg of +120, would be plus about 75 units.

Not bad

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

actually JOEY, i'm NOT betting on these games...i'm just tracking them...

sorry, should have stated that earlier....

did this earlier in the year (october...) and the dogs were barkin...LOUD.

 

[Stag]

Ice Picks...
that's the knd of info I'm looking for. Where did you et that record for dogs? And was it ML dogs? Can't be. It's gotta be the am getting a half-puck, which most of the time, is laying money!
Does this make sense? Let me know. Thanks

Stag

 

[Ice Picks]

STAG

STAG

You are probably right that it would be money lines to put you up with this record. the +.5 is usually -money


Check out: [edit out link] [please respect our policy and do not post links on the forum. thanks]

 

[Stag]

Ice Picks......
thanks for the link....i checked it out.....
Another thing was wrong......I thought his OVER/UNDER results looked fishy.......and sure enough, they were.
If u look closely, this guy is basing EVERY total at 5.5 goals. Hence, the UNDERS hitting big. But, as we in this forum know, that the VAST majority of totals close at 5. That's why every game that lands on "5" he counts as a win. When we, the bettor,would certainly gain a push. (Notice he has no pushes)
Hope this helps!
Stag

 

[Terryray]

at
[edit out link] [please respect our policy and do not post links on the forum. thanks]

(unfortunately down now!)
they have an excellent chart listing o/u for each team, home and away, for each line. He might send it to you

he updates it about every 3 weeks, so I gotta do my own inbetween, and haven't yet this past week.

but thru 2/25 the O-U-P was 365-394-121. Which is pretty normal. The 5.5 line is 107-135.

[edit out link] [please respect our policy and do not post links on the forum. thanks]

does have O/U for each team in free area, but not broken down by home/away or line.

 

[Ice Picks]

Over/Unders

Over/Unders

Stag - You are right that the stats that were posted are correct if all games are listed at 5.5, which has been the historical norm of the NHL games. Obvioulsy, not all games go at O/U 5.5.

This year the scoring average has come down quite a bit percentage wise under 5.5 to about 5.2 - 5.3.

But - I still look at an OVER if I see a 4.5 on the board and an UNDER at 6.0.

I don't think Skeeter is claiming one thing or another with those stats. He is just listing a fact that 58% of games have gone under 5.5.

I thought it was worth posting - so I did.

IP

 

[Stag]

Ice.......
def. worth posting!
Keep up the good work. I like stats like that!
Stag

 

[saint]

more O/U analysis

more O/U analysis

I ran across this site randomly:

[edit out link] [please respect our policy and do not post links on the forum. thanks]

go to the O/U analysis button at the top and select this season for NHL

I'm not sure about the accuracy of this site, I don't use it for my capping. It only tracks games since Feb 8th, and has O/U analysis by team depending on if line is 4.5, 5, 5.5 or 6. I guess, if it is correct, it may be helpful in one aspect. You can look at the O/U from the entire season, but maybe it varies per time period. Meaning, there may be times of the season when teams are more focused on defense and getting any points they can (like close to playoff time) compared to other periods of the season. If this set of info is right, then it appears over the last month that the over is hitting more than the unders, so maybe it's something we should look at. Just thought I'd throw this out into the mix.

Stag, if you are reading this, thanks for your ivy insight at the tail end of this year. College bball is not my forte and I piggybacked your picks towards the end of the year in the college bball.

 

[fredd]

I would like to give you my stats for over and unders-

First - each day I print the hockey lines from the same sportbook- a very reliable long term sportbook-
that way I have consistent numbers.

So far this year my numbers are

935 games played

393 overs

416 unders

126 Pushes

So Overs are 42.0 %

Unders are 44.5 %

Pushes are 13.5%

But what is the more important number is the total of
games that did not go over the total is

542 or 58% of the games .

Now you see why I always play the unders-
and why I have so many ties or pushes.

hope this helps-

best of fortune

 

[saint]

fredd?

fredd?

Is that 58% a usual number? Do you have any stats on last season or further back? If it consistently hits in that area, that is pretty good capping as far an entire season is concerned. Especially since some unders pay out nicely, with some good money management could definitely be profitable if it were a pattern that has played out over time. Also, is that going by SIA...I read that you have used them for a while, and they are my #1 book.

We'll have to see what rule changes are made next year to see if it will influence either way.

 

[infinii]

BUTTT.....
If you look at it like that then 55.5% of the games didn't go under the total.

I'm looking for more under plays now that season is winding down. Most playoff bound teams will start working on special teams and concentrate on defense as everyone knows...it's DEFENCE that wins Stanley Cups.