NightWatch
For the Night of 30 June 2009
North Korea-US: The US Treasury Department today took action to freeze the assets of the Hong Kong Electronics, a company located in Kish Island, Iran, because it assists North Korean proliferation. The action means that any bank accounts or other financial assets found in the United States belonging to the company must be frozen. Americans also are prohibited from doing business with the firm.
Comment: US economic warfare weapons are the finest in the world, but are used far too infrequently. They produce faster and more devastating results than combat. NW observed first hand the effects of unilateral US sanctions on Vietnam between 1975 and 1992. Hanoi was a city locked in its colonial past whose main means of transportation in 1992 was bicycles.
US economic sanctions created a time warp in which northern Vietnam was consigned to grinding poverty for a generation and from which it could not emerge without the consent and cooperation of the US.
A well-conceived and skillfully executed economic containment program against North Korea could bring down the Kim regime in six months -- could have done so at any time since 1995. Such a program would also hobble the Chinese for half a generation.
North Korea: The MV Kang Nam 1 is heading back to North Korea, according to a report by The Associated Press which quoted US officials. The ship left Nampo on 17 June and is the first arms carrying ship monitored under U.N. sanctions that ban the North from exporting arms and nuclear-related material.
The US Navy has been following Kang Nam 1 since the 17th. After sailing south and southwest for more than a week; on Sunday it turned about in the South China Sea and headed north, two US officials said on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence. It never reached Singapore, much less Burma.
Feedback: One brilliant and well informed Reader assessed that the North blinked, meaning it considered the likelihood of losing the cargo was too great to risk at this time. An alternative explanation is the ship carried no arms cargo but was a test of the new sanctions regime, which North Korean leaders found effective. The two explanations are not mutually exclusive.
Israel: For the record. Israeli forces boarded a ship trying to carry aid and pro-Palestinian activists to the Gaza Strip in defiance of Israel's blockade of the territory. The 20 passengers include former US congresswoman Cynthia McKinney and Nobel Prize winner Mairead Maguire. The activists also include some Britons, campaigners said.
Ms McKinney described it as "an outrageous violation of international law", as the boat was on a humanitarian mission and was not in Israeli waters. The Israeli military said the boat was trying to enter Gaza illegally.
The US-based Free Gaza Movement has breached the blockade five times since August 2008.
Two other attempts by the activist group were stopped by Israeli warships during Israel's three-week military offensive in Gaza in December and January.
Somalia- al Shabaab region: Somali Islamist militant group al Shabaab leader Abdiqani Mohamed Yusuf said 30 June that it is time for the people of Somalia to attack Ethiopia, Reuters reported. During a radio broadcast, Yusuf said Somalis must invade the Ethiopians' country because they have invaded Somalia. He added, "The people should be ready to take part in jihad."
Black Swan: An Islamic emirate that possesses nuclear weapons and delivery systems: Somalia ten years hence is a candidate.
Niger: The BBC reported today that ? President Mamadou Tandja's bid to cling to power went a step further after he scrapped Niger's constitutional court about a month after he dissolved a parliament that had challenged him. Tandja, a 71-year-old retired army colonel whose legal tenure expires in December, is fighting to retain the presidency through a controversial constitutional change, which has met stiff political and legal resistance.
The country's highest court three times ruled against his plans to change the basic law to let him seek a third term five-year in office.?
Question: Does this not look a lot like what is happening in Honduras under Zelaya? The phenomenology is identical, except the security forces of Niger have not acted. This is another coup waiting for a trigger, usually the summary dismissal of the head of armed forces or a defiant trip abroad by the president.
UN-Honduras: The U.N. General Assembly demanded the immediate restoration of Honduras' ousted president on Tuesday. The U.N. vote by acclamation added to the avalanche of international denunciations of the coup that removed Zelaya on Sunday.
The world body called on all 192 U.N. member states to avoid recognizing any government in Honduras other than Zelaya's. Zelaya then thanked the assembly for the "historic" resolution that expresses "the indignation" of people worldwide.
Questions: When did the UN ordain that the president of a country is a superior manifestation of the will of the electorate over the Congress of that country elected by the same people? The position of the UN is risible, arbitrary nonsense, as well as unsound in political science.
In Honduras a would-be constitutional usurper was booted, not an elected government! They are all crooks, but the words and titles have significance.
The elected members of the government acted to protect democracy, or their share of organized corruption some would say. Zelaya was no friend of democracy and already defied two Supreme Court orders. His aim was to destroy term limits so he could rule indefinitely.
Intentions always make a difference in assessing liability in countries that abide by rule of law. Zelaya intended to suborn and subvert the constitution. The Congress, Supreme Court and armed forces acted to preserve it. Both were trying to preserve their own parochial interests.
As for faith in the wisdom of elected government, Hamas in Gaza is the product of free and fair elections. Its ascension to power was a major setback to US policy because it remains implacably hostile to US interests and openly determined to destroy Israel. Blind trust in democracy served no US interest in those elections, or in the re-election of Ahmadi-nejad, by a landslide.
The problem with democracy is that voters can vote to terminate it, say for increased food rations, but do not have the luxury of second thoughts. Once gone, democracy is hard to retrieve. NW knows of no cases since WW II in which a democracy that committed electoral suicide by voting for autocratic government or benevolent dictatorship restored itself without violence. The ultimate example is Nazi Germany, which is the poster child for the pitfalls of elected government.
Honduras: Foreign Minister Enrique Ortez Colindres said 30 June that ousted President Manuel Zelaya would have to ask permission "like a common citizen" to return to the country, El Universal reported. Interim President Roberto Micheletti said, in an interview with Colombian radio station Caracol Radio that the Honduran high court has issued an order to arrest Zelaya should he return.
Zelaya, however, said today that Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa will join him when he attempts to return to Honduras on 2 July, Reuters reported. Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and Organization of American States chief Jose Miguel Insulza also will accompany Zelaya on the trip.
The threatened return of Zelaya is a flashpoint. If the regime remains firm, Zelaya will cancel his return and set up a sympathy tour.
Feedback: NW received an extraordinary quality of feedback and insights about the events in Honduras. Thanks to all, sincerely.
As with any country and culture the drivers and issues are complex and intertwined. For example, one theme is that all the ?stake holders? ? Congress, the President, the Armed Forces and powerful business interests ? are tied to drug running. Control of the drug trade is a major issue in Zelaya?s overthrow, apparently.
There are no good guys for the US; only interests. Zelaya was leading his corrupt cohorts in the direction of Venezuelan-style socialism. His arguably equally corrupt opponents demurred.
The phenomenology of this event, however, is as simple as Nigerien politics. A strong man wanted to stay in power; overestimated his support and lost his gamble. Official US support to restore Zelaya -- a man who openly advocated anti-US causes and socialism ? should be hard to justify to the US electorate, one would surmise.
The US prides itself that it is a country based on rule of law and not of men, a timely principle to revisit before the 4th of July. Zelaya believed in rule of a man who could manipulate the law for his own advantage. The US has not supported Zelaya?s restoration, though it has condemned the coup
Closing question: Would it be so bad were Latin Americans to overthrow duly elected socialist demagogues, just as their fathers and mothers did a generation ago? The will of the people manifests itself in more than one form of election.
For the Night of 30 June 2009
North Korea-US: The US Treasury Department today took action to freeze the assets of the Hong Kong Electronics, a company located in Kish Island, Iran, because it assists North Korean proliferation. The action means that any bank accounts or other financial assets found in the United States belonging to the company must be frozen. Americans also are prohibited from doing business with the firm.
Comment: US economic warfare weapons are the finest in the world, but are used far too infrequently. They produce faster and more devastating results than combat. NW observed first hand the effects of unilateral US sanctions on Vietnam between 1975 and 1992. Hanoi was a city locked in its colonial past whose main means of transportation in 1992 was bicycles.
US economic sanctions created a time warp in which northern Vietnam was consigned to grinding poverty for a generation and from which it could not emerge without the consent and cooperation of the US.
A well-conceived and skillfully executed economic containment program against North Korea could bring down the Kim regime in six months -- could have done so at any time since 1995. Such a program would also hobble the Chinese for half a generation.
North Korea: The MV Kang Nam 1 is heading back to North Korea, according to a report by The Associated Press which quoted US officials. The ship left Nampo on 17 June and is the first arms carrying ship monitored under U.N. sanctions that ban the North from exporting arms and nuclear-related material.
The US Navy has been following Kang Nam 1 since the 17th. After sailing south and southwest for more than a week; on Sunday it turned about in the South China Sea and headed north, two US officials said on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence. It never reached Singapore, much less Burma.
Feedback: One brilliant and well informed Reader assessed that the North blinked, meaning it considered the likelihood of losing the cargo was too great to risk at this time. An alternative explanation is the ship carried no arms cargo but was a test of the new sanctions regime, which North Korean leaders found effective. The two explanations are not mutually exclusive.
Israel: For the record. Israeli forces boarded a ship trying to carry aid and pro-Palestinian activists to the Gaza Strip in defiance of Israel's blockade of the territory. The 20 passengers include former US congresswoman Cynthia McKinney and Nobel Prize winner Mairead Maguire. The activists also include some Britons, campaigners said.
Ms McKinney described it as "an outrageous violation of international law", as the boat was on a humanitarian mission and was not in Israeli waters. The Israeli military said the boat was trying to enter Gaza illegally.
The US-based Free Gaza Movement has breached the blockade five times since August 2008.
Two other attempts by the activist group were stopped by Israeli warships during Israel's three-week military offensive in Gaza in December and January.
Somalia- al Shabaab region: Somali Islamist militant group al Shabaab leader Abdiqani Mohamed Yusuf said 30 June that it is time for the people of Somalia to attack Ethiopia, Reuters reported. During a radio broadcast, Yusuf said Somalis must invade the Ethiopians' country because they have invaded Somalia. He added, "The people should be ready to take part in jihad."
Black Swan: An Islamic emirate that possesses nuclear weapons and delivery systems: Somalia ten years hence is a candidate.
Niger: The BBC reported today that ? President Mamadou Tandja's bid to cling to power went a step further after he scrapped Niger's constitutional court about a month after he dissolved a parliament that had challenged him. Tandja, a 71-year-old retired army colonel whose legal tenure expires in December, is fighting to retain the presidency through a controversial constitutional change, which has met stiff political and legal resistance.
The country's highest court three times ruled against his plans to change the basic law to let him seek a third term five-year in office.?
Question: Does this not look a lot like what is happening in Honduras under Zelaya? The phenomenology is identical, except the security forces of Niger have not acted. This is another coup waiting for a trigger, usually the summary dismissal of the head of armed forces or a defiant trip abroad by the president.
UN-Honduras: The U.N. General Assembly demanded the immediate restoration of Honduras' ousted president on Tuesday. The U.N. vote by acclamation added to the avalanche of international denunciations of the coup that removed Zelaya on Sunday.
The world body called on all 192 U.N. member states to avoid recognizing any government in Honduras other than Zelaya's. Zelaya then thanked the assembly for the "historic" resolution that expresses "the indignation" of people worldwide.
Questions: When did the UN ordain that the president of a country is a superior manifestation of the will of the electorate over the Congress of that country elected by the same people? The position of the UN is risible, arbitrary nonsense, as well as unsound in political science.
In Honduras a would-be constitutional usurper was booted, not an elected government! They are all crooks, but the words and titles have significance.
The elected members of the government acted to protect democracy, or their share of organized corruption some would say. Zelaya was no friend of democracy and already defied two Supreme Court orders. His aim was to destroy term limits so he could rule indefinitely.
Intentions always make a difference in assessing liability in countries that abide by rule of law. Zelaya intended to suborn and subvert the constitution. The Congress, Supreme Court and armed forces acted to preserve it. Both were trying to preserve their own parochial interests.
As for faith in the wisdom of elected government, Hamas in Gaza is the product of free and fair elections. Its ascension to power was a major setback to US policy because it remains implacably hostile to US interests and openly determined to destroy Israel. Blind trust in democracy served no US interest in those elections, or in the re-election of Ahmadi-nejad, by a landslide.
The problem with democracy is that voters can vote to terminate it, say for increased food rations, but do not have the luxury of second thoughts. Once gone, democracy is hard to retrieve. NW knows of no cases since WW II in which a democracy that committed electoral suicide by voting for autocratic government or benevolent dictatorship restored itself without violence. The ultimate example is Nazi Germany, which is the poster child for the pitfalls of elected government.
Honduras: Foreign Minister Enrique Ortez Colindres said 30 June that ousted President Manuel Zelaya would have to ask permission "like a common citizen" to return to the country, El Universal reported. Interim President Roberto Micheletti said, in an interview with Colombian radio station Caracol Radio that the Honduran high court has issued an order to arrest Zelaya should he return.
Zelaya, however, said today that Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa will join him when he attempts to return to Honduras on 2 July, Reuters reported. Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and Organization of American States chief Jose Miguel Insulza also will accompany Zelaya on the trip.
The threatened return of Zelaya is a flashpoint. If the regime remains firm, Zelaya will cancel his return and set up a sympathy tour.
Feedback: NW received an extraordinary quality of feedback and insights about the events in Honduras. Thanks to all, sincerely.
As with any country and culture the drivers and issues are complex and intertwined. For example, one theme is that all the ?stake holders? ? Congress, the President, the Armed Forces and powerful business interests ? are tied to drug running. Control of the drug trade is a major issue in Zelaya?s overthrow, apparently.
There are no good guys for the US; only interests. Zelaya was leading his corrupt cohorts in the direction of Venezuelan-style socialism. His arguably equally corrupt opponents demurred.
The phenomenology of this event, however, is as simple as Nigerien politics. A strong man wanted to stay in power; overestimated his support and lost his gamble. Official US support to restore Zelaya -- a man who openly advocated anti-US causes and socialism ? should be hard to justify to the US electorate, one would surmise.
The US prides itself that it is a country based on rule of law and not of men, a timely principle to revisit before the 4th of July. Zelaya believed in rule of a man who could manipulate the law for his own advantage. The US has not supported Zelaya?s restoration, though it has condemned the coup
Closing question: Would it be so bad were Latin Americans to overthrow duly elected socialist demagogues, just as their fathers and mothers did a generation ago? The will of the people manifests itself in more than one form of election.
