MJ's mlb playoffs
-----------------
5-5 +1.54
ml: 1-3 -0.94
rl: 1-0 +0.58
1st5: 1-1 -0.82
series: 2-1 +2.72
system sides: 9-6 +164 (based on $100 risk per game)
system value plays: 7-5 +300 (same)
===
Three stupid plays (isn't hindsight great?) on the Cubs in game #3 spanks my overall numbers. Never make bets when you have a Harden.
System value plays means any sides with a positive value indicator. e.g. Cubs calls were in the 50's for games #1 and #2 but the only value for sides was on the underdog Dodgers. Similar situation for game #1 in Philly--see below.
Totals have been tough (unless you're pounding unders) as only the Rays and Dodgers have really been producing so far. I won't post a total again unless I get a system call of 60% or higher.
===
Game #1
Lowe@Hamels
Phillies 54%(-139)-5 dodgers 46(+131)+2
over7.5 61%(-110)+8
You can see what I mean, here. Phillies is the call but only value (though small) appears with the dodgers. I get the dodgers ov3.5 at around 59%; currently at +100 that gives me a +9 value indicator there. I'd like to know the umpire for this opener as that play is my early lean presently. Line likely moves to juicy-time so I probably don't have the luxury of waiting if I want the +100. Dodgers, as well, are tempting...game #1 and the series.
===
Here's a look at what I've got for subsequent games. The following are subject to change for a few obvious reasons (e.g. bullpen usage, injury, serious mojo by one side or the other). Still might help if considering a series play, which I am.
Game #2
Billingsley@Myers
Phillies 54%(-120?...no value if so)
Game #3
Moyer@Kuroda
Dodgers 59%(-130'ish if LAD takes #1 or #2...minimal value if so)
Game #4
Blanton@Kershaw
Dodgers 52%(impossible to predict a line with 3 games to play beforehand...I'm guessing slight fave on LAD if they take even 1 of the first 3)
===
Not a 60% to be found among the above--should be a pretty close and even series. Two solid bullpens should keep late-inning scoring to a minimum, I would think.
You can surely dig up more details on the following yourself, but here's some short notes on SP's record vs opponent...
LAD
------
Lowe: 1 decent '08(W)
Billingsley: 1 decent '08(L)
Kuroda: 1-0 solid in 2 '08
Kershaw: 0-1 8.10 era in 2 '08
Phil
------
Hamels: 1-0 2.57 in 2 '08
Myers: 1-1 1.93 in 2 '08
Moyer: none '08; 3-4 4.80 career incl. 1-2 6.04 @Dodgers Stadium
Blanton: 0-0 4.09 in 2 '08
Very tough series to call. Howard and Utley haven't hit for shit so far in the playoffs but if either/or comes on then Phillies could keep up with the sticks--I believe that LAD will get it's share. I can see this series tied after the opening 4 games...LAD taking one of the first two seems likely (and they'll be dogs for both), Kuroda over Moyer seems likely while the Phils should be able to beat the still fresh Kershaw if Blanton is anywhere as good as he was in the opening round.
Time to submit before the power goes out.
Plays pending.
GL
-----------------
5-5 +1.54
ml: 1-3 -0.94
rl: 1-0 +0.58
1st5: 1-1 -0.82
series: 2-1 +2.72
system sides: 9-6 +164 (based on $100 risk per game)
system value plays: 7-5 +300 (same)
===
Three stupid plays (isn't hindsight great?) on the Cubs in game #3 spanks my overall numbers. Never make bets when you have a Harden.
System value plays means any sides with a positive value indicator. e.g. Cubs calls were in the 50's for games #1 and #2 but the only value for sides was on the underdog Dodgers. Similar situation for game #1 in Philly--see below.
Totals have been tough (unless you're pounding unders) as only the Rays and Dodgers have really been producing so far. I won't post a total again unless I get a system call of 60% or higher.
===
Game #1
Lowe@Hamels
Phillies 54%(-139)-5 dodgers 46(+131)+2
over7.5 61%(-110)+8
You can see what I mean, here. Phillies is the call but only value (though small) appears with the dodgers. I get the dodgers ov3.5 at around 59%; currently at +100 that gives me a +9 value indicator there. I'd like to know the umpire for this opener as that play is my early lean presently. Line likely moves to juicy-time so I probably don't have the luxury of waiting if I want the +100. Dodgers, as well, are tempting...game #1 and the series.
===
Here's a look at what I've got for subsequent games. The following are subject to change for a few obvious reasons (e.g. bullpen usage, injury, serious mojo by one side or the other). Still might help if considering a series play, which I am.
Game #2
Billingsley@Myers
Phillies 54%(-120?...no value if so)
Game #3
Moyer@Kuroda
Dodgers 59%(-130'ish if LAD takes #1 or #2...minimal value if so)
Game #4
Blanton@Kershaw
Dodgers 52%(impossible to predict a line with 3 games to play beforehand...I'm guessing slight fave on LAD if they take even 1 of the first 3)
===
Not a 60% to be found among the above--should be a pretty close and even series. Two solid bullpens should keep late-inning scoring to a minimum, I would think.
You can surely dig up more details on the following yourself, but here's some short notes on SP's record vs opponent...
LAD
------
Lowe: 1 decent '08(W)
Billingsley: 1 decent '08(L)
Kuroda: 1-0 solid in 2 '08
Kershaw: 0-1 8.10 era in 2 '08
Phil
------
Hamels: 1-0 2.57 in 2 '08
Myers: 1-1 1.93 in 2 '08
Moyer: none '08; 3-4 4.80 career incl. 1-2 6.04 @Dodgers Stadium
Blanton: 0-0 4.09 in 2 '08
Very tough series to call. Howard and Utley haven't hit for shit so far in the playoffs but if either/or comes on then Phillies could keep up with the sticks--I believe that LAD will get it's share. I can see this series tied after the opening 4 games...LAD taking one of the first two seems likely (and they'll be dogs for both), Kuroda over Moyer seems likely while the Phils should be able to beat the still fresh Kershaw if Blanton is anywhere as good as he was in the opening round.
Time to submit before the power goes out.
Plays pending.
GL
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