Rockies lead series 3-0
Rockies lead series 3-0
Game #4
Owings @ Morales
Rockies 62% (N/A)
over 10 53% (N/A) --ump Hallion is even
I'm giving the D'Backs a very small edge pitching and the Rockies a larger edge at the plate. Rockies sizeable home-field comprises the rest of the edge.
This will be Owings' first game against the Rockies. On the road this season he went 4-3 with a 4.96 era. Owings was average or worse during his rookie season, but finished the regular season with 15 consecutive scoreless innings (Giants then Pirates). He hasn't worked yet in the playoffs (pitching--he's had an AB). D'Backs bullpen is solid.
This will be Morales' first game against 'Zona. His numbers were much, much better on the road as at Coors his era was 6.23, opponent's hitting an even .300 off him there. Rockies bullpen is almost as good as 'Zona's while they've maybe been performing a bit better than them, even, lately (closer to "certainly" than "maybe" but my philosophy background prevents me from committing
).
D'Backs .722 OPS vs L regular season, scoring the fewest runs of any MLB team against lefties
Rockies .798 OPS vs R regular season
D'Backs .692 OPS on the road and they scored the least number of runs of any MLB team on the road
Rockies .853 OPS home, scoring less runs than only Boston at home
D'Backs hit .256 vs L
Rockies hit .280 vs R
D'Backs hit .233 on the road to L
Rockies hit .298 at home to R
D'Backs hit .296 last 10 vs L (Francis,Hill,Lilly,Redman,Francis)
Rockies hit .303 last 10 vs R
D'Backs 14-8 on the road to L
Rockies 39-19 at home to R
The Rockies have had some good luck to go along with their great play so far in this round. Not to mention the fact that the D'Backs have been beating themselves, to a certain degree. Owings finished the regular season with 15 consecutive scoreless innings?a complete game shutout at home over the Giants followed by 6.1 scorless innings at Pittsburgh?picking up a pair of wins, allowing only 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 8. Granted, those squads that he beat were in pretty bad condition to close out the season, but the Rockies have never faced him before and didn't look exceptional against Livan, who really didn't look that great, in my opinion. Morales, too, may be a concern for Rockies backers due to his poor work at Coors. He, too, had a string of 17 scorless innings near the end of the season, before having a little more trouble to close out the season at Dodger Stadium. For his first start of these playoffs he garnered a 9.00 era for his 3 innings vs Philly. Owings, as well, gives the D'Backs a pretty solid bat in the order, as he is an exceptional hitter?for a pitcher. Kind of like game #3, I think that a desperate D'Backs team might be able to delay the Rockies next assignment but, like yesterday, I don't think that I can back anybody here but the Rockies. D'Backs are just not hitting well in this series and that may well continue facing a lefty that they have never seen before. I still think that the D'Backs can be expected to finally cash a few more runners in this series, especially conisdering that the weather forecasts for Monday are a little better than they were for Sunday's contest; maybe 3-5 runs for the visitors. The Rockies hit the ball fairly well on Sunday but hit several line shots right at the outfielders; I think that greater production from the Rockies can be expected as well though, to tell you the truth, I've seen very little of rookie Owings and I'm not quite sure what type of pitcher he really is; still, I think that 4-6 runs can be expected from the home team and maybe more if Tavares and Matsui can actually start doing something near the top of the order. I'm calling umpire Hallion even but his K% was up just over 63% this season, which is fairly high, so the two rookie SP's may get a bit of a break on some of their borderline pitches. The line for this game will almost certainly be as expensive as yesterday (-150 or more) so I'm not going to be presented with much value for the home side, going by the system call posted above (62%...break even mark on a -163 line). That didn't stop me yesterday and might not stop me today, though maybe at a +140 the runline would again be a better deal. Rockies might actually be able to lose, start Francis in game #4, and then bring Francis back for a Series game #1 if the Indians and Bosox prolong their series. But I'm getting ahead of myself. One game at a time. Wish I had a better gauge of just what kind of pitcher Owings is but, before his late-season surge, he was merely below average to average throughout the course of the season. Morales should be able to keep up with him and the Rockiesticks certainly get the edge for this contest, especially with the D'Backs facing a lefty.
Predicted score: Rockies 6 Diamondbacks 4
Plays pending.
GL
