NLDS - Dodgers-Cubs

EXTRAPOLATER

Registered User
Forum Member
Feb 22, 2001
8,050
137
63
Toronto
Game #1
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Lowe@Dempster
Cubs 57%(-153)-4 dodgers 43(+145)+2

I have the SP situation quite even, while the Dodgers pen edge gives a slight overall edge to their pitching for this contest. Cubs medium-sized edge at the plate and home field advantage overcome this for a low Cubs call. Total would be near even around a 9, depending which way the wind blows.

Dempster was solid vs the Dodgers back in late May at home and then mediocre vs them a week later in June at Dodgers Stadium. He's been pretty solid the past 3 months though the last few starts have been short. Ethier, Kent and Pierre hit him well this year. Loney, Kemp and Martin struggled. Manny hasn't faced him this year but is 1-for-1 (double) in 1 encounter previosuly. Pierre, Kent and Ethier have the best career numbers vs him while nobody else (Manny?) has really achieved much. Dempster has been outstanding at home.

Lowe has been great all season but particularly effective over the past 10 weeks or so. He shut down the Cubs at Wrigley back on May 28th and then had a quality start a week later at home vs them in a 7-3 victory. He's only 5-6 with a 4.42 ear on the road this season though in his 5 most recent road starts he allowed 2 earned runs once and one or less in the others. Soriano, Soto and Fontenot had some success vs him this season while Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Soriano, Edmunds and Theriot all struggled. Including earlier encounters, Fontenot, R.Johnson and Lee have hit him well. Edmunds, Ramirez and Soriano have had their struggles, though Soriano does have 3 homers off of Lowe. At night Lowe was 11-8 with a 2.86 era but during day games he was 3-3 with a 4.36 era (night game for this one).

Will add more if anything found.
Share some juicy angles of your own, if you like.

Tempted by the Dodgers due to Lowe's recent dominance but the Cubs perceived motivation might leave me spectating. Should be a good game regardless.

GL
 
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EXTRAPOLATER

Registered User
Forum Member
Feb 22, 2001
8,050
137
63
Toronto
game #2
Billingsley@Zambrano
Cubs 54%(-164)-9 dodgers 46(+156)+7

Got a small edge hitting Cubs and small edge pitching dodgers.
Like yesterday, only value appears to be on the dodgers.
Cubs desperately need this game, however, for whatever that's worth.
No 60%+ calls yet. Gimme, gimme, gimme.
One please god wake me for Thursday, actually.

GL
 

EXTRAPOLATER

Registered User
Forum Member
Feb 22, 2001
8,050
137
63
Toronto
game #3
Harden@Kuroda
cubs 55%(-129)-2
under7.5 51%(no value)
under4 1st5 54%(worse value at current -150)

Here's a case of me going against my system. I think that the Cubs will be looser playing this one on the road with really nothing much to lose at this point in time as most commentators have already written them off. Harden's not 100% but if he's even close to on then he'll be very difficult to contend with. Note that the Cubs saw Kuroda twice this year--managing a 1-1 record but really being shut down by the man. The first 5 innings looks a little tastier as the SP edge is with the Cubs, though the Cubs BP should be in fine shape if called upon to protect a lead. Just spewing thoughts, here. Wanted (much) closer to +100 but I'm giving this one a go regardless.

1st5 cubs -132 1.32/1
cubs -129 1/0.78
series cubs +430 0.5/2.15

My other two series (bosox/Rays) look promising so I'm trying this big plus on the Cubs recovery play. They take game #3 and anything is possible. I'd likely try Lilly as a nice dog if we see such a line. One at a time.

playoff record: 3-1 +1.6something


GL
 
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