No.1 Kansas in rugged Midwest Bracket

[Lumi]

No.1 Kansas in rugged Midwest Bracket

This is in many ways one of the most unusual years in college basketball and possibly it might be a sign of future events as it moves along. Kansas was the deserved No.1 seed of the whole tournament and while West Virginia made a late push, all four top seeds have earned their position at the top of respective brackets.

This year more than ever, no whining about the teams that didn?t get in, if it weren?t for the usual upsets by teams that end up winning conference championships, it would have even harder to fill the field of 65 teams, since all the teams that didn?t make it had more than enough bad losses to offset what qualities wins they manufactured.

My eyes are blurry from watching over 150 college basketball games this season and this is whom I see in the Sweet 16, starting in the Midwest region.

In March, you need a number of factors to win six games and be crowned the kings of college basketball. At the top of the list is talent and this why coach Bill Self continues to win everywhere he goes, the man can recruit. Kansas (32-2) has a terrific point guard in Sherrod Collins, size and scoring in the paint with Cole Aldrich and the Morris brothers and Xavier Henry has his sweet looking three-point shot back. Kansas wins be 18 points a game and was a nation?s best 8-1 against the RPI?s Top 25. Lehigh (22-10) won the Patriot League regular and postseason, but should not provide much opposition.

I was surprised to see Northern Iowa (28-4) as a ninth seed, as they were a Top 30 team all season and won the Missouri Valley regular season and postseason tourney. The Panthers concede just 54.3 points per game and might feel underappreciated against UNLV (25-8) who has to have guard Tre?Von Willis at 100 percent after suffering mildly sprained ankle in MWC semis. No. 8 seeds are just 46-54 against No.9 seeds and Northern Iowa?s experience wins out.

Michigan State (24-8) will have some early problems with athletic New Mexico State (22-11); however the Aggies are a mirage of sorts, winning by less than a point per game (+0.8) despite 22 victories and coughs up 77.8 points per game. The Spartans move on but need point guard Kalin Lucas to regain form prior to injury to move beyond this contest.

Rumors around Houston had coach Tom Penders on the bubble, to keep his job that is, instead the Cougars are in NCAA Tournament for first time in 18 years. Houston (19-15) has the nation?s leading scorer in Aubrey Coleman and fellow guard Kelvin Lewis can also bury shots, it will be how they defend Maryland (23-8) that will make the difference. Before lame effort against Georgia Tech in ACC quarterfinals, the Terps has won nine of ten. Expect refocused Maryland and Greivis Vasquez to score a bundle on Houston off four games in four days.

Ohio State (27-7) might have the best five players with diverse skills in the country, led by Evan Turner. UC-Santa Barbara (20-9) was Big West champs and has conference player of the year Orlando Johnson, but the Gauchos won?t be able to handle Buckeyes ability to score in bunches.

The 7 vs.10 matchup is study contrast in styles. Oklahoma State (22-10) is guard-oriented, with their sharp-shooter James Anderson and Georgia Tech (22-12) plays best going inside to Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors. The Yellow Jackets commit way too many turnovers and are lassoed by the Cowboys.

No.3 Georgetown (23-10) is one the best teams in the country when their top three players are ?on? like they were in Big East tourney. Too much power and size for Hoyas, but the dynamic guard duo of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper for Ohio U. (21-14) could make it interesting if they can combine for 50 or more points.

San Diego State (25-8) to upset Tennessee (23-8), don?t think so. Sixth seeds are 69-31 over 11th seeds, but Aztecs could cover since they are 11-7 SU and ATS in away games.

 

[Lumi]

15 rules to remember when filling out your bracket

15 rules to remember when filling out your bracket

15 rules to remember when filling out your bracket

I don?t care that the fat secretary won your NCAA Tournament office pool by picking solely on the team?s mascots -- There is skill involved in consistently filling out an accurate NCAA bracket. I have mastered that skill.


In the next 1,000 or so words, I will be your Bracket Jedi Master. You will be my Bracket Bitch. So get your fat ass a beer, sit down and learn.

First, for creditability sake, let?s talk more about how awesome I am at cashing in NCAA pools. I usually fill out about four sheets, divided between three pools. I usually enter a national one, with close to 1,000 entries, an office pool and a longtime friend?s.

Since 2004, I?ve won five pools outright. At least one of my brackets has finished in the money in five of six years; never, however, in the national pool.

I also have correctly picked the national champion in five of the past six years, missing only on Kansas in 2008.


compensated friends to back me up, so there?s absolutely no reason not to believe me. But if you have doubts, I?ve also assembled a group of distinguished gentlemen that make a living handicapping, sort of a Jedi council.

Like I said, just sit back and learn, Bitch.

Rule No. 1: The most important stat

The best teams win without their A game and blowout teams when they do have it. That?s why scoring margin is the most important stat in the NCAA Tournament. The top 10 tournament teams in scoring margin are: BYU, Kansas, Duke, Murray State, Syracuse, Kentucky, St. Mary?s, Ohio State and Baylor.

Rule No. 2: Spreads, not seeds

?Pay more attention to pointspreads than seeding. When the 11 seed is a pick 'em against the 6 seed, the betting markets are telling you all you need to know.? ? Covers Expert Teddy Sevransky.

Rule No. 3: Don?t be a hero

Upsets happen, but by relying heavily on the chalk, especially in the early rounds, you?ll at least give yourself a chance in the end.

?Don't fall in love with opening-round underdogs,? suggests Covers Expert Sean Murphy. ?There will be a few upsets, but the majority of those teams won't end up going deep in the tournament. Trying to outsmart the rest of your office at tournament time will only give you a headache, and could ruin your bracket.?

You?re not going to be the guy to call the first ever 16-seed over a 1-seed. In fact, advancing each of the 1 through 4 seeds to the second round is a sound opening.

?Going back 24 years, No. 1 seed has ever lost in their opening game. The No. 2 seeds have lost only four times. That?s a total of 192 opening round games that have been played by No. 1 and No. 2 seeds with only four losses (98 percent success rate),? Covers Expert Lee Kostroski points out.

?The 3 seeds have lost a total of 15 times in the last 24 years. That?s an 84 percent success rate for the 3 teams. The 4 seeds have lost just 20 times the last during that same time period, or a 79 percent success rate. If you pick all of the 1-4 seeds to advance to the second round, you are looking at a probable 16-0 record with one or possibly two losses.

Rule No. 4: Respect coaches

Teams in the NCAA tournament take on their coach's personalities. Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans shine in this event when facing an opponent that covered the spread by five or more points in its last game, going 19-2 SU and ATS.

?Also, Bill Self (Kansas) is 11-0 SU and ATS in this tourney when facing an opponent off an upset, underdog win in its last game.? ?Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.

Under Izzo's guidance, MSU is 12-5 in tourney games since 2005 while Kansas is 11-2 in the Dance since 2007 with Self at the helm.


Rule No. 5: Second most important stat

Pay close attention to strength of schedule, specifically non-conference SOS.

The top 10 tournament teams in non-conference strength of schedule, according to the Pomeroy Ratings, are: Butler, California, Georgetown, Xavier West Virginia, Oakland, Temple, Kansas State and Old Dominion.

The top 10 in overall strength of the schedule: Georgetown, West Virginia, Kansas State, Duke, Texas A&M, Villanova, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, California and Clemson.

Rule No. 6: Six seeds are vulnerable

A No. 11 seed will beat a No. 6 seed almost 33 percent of the time. Since 1985, No. 6 seeds have gone 69-31 straight up against No. 11 seeds. Last year No. 11 Dayton pulled the trick and other No. 11s, Utah and VCU, each lost by a point.

Rule No. 7: Ashley Judd is hot

So let?s hope Kentucky goes deep. The ultra-talented Wildcats will, by the way.

Rule No. 8: Vary your brackets, slightly

Again, we want to be chalk-heavy in every bracket.

But alternating some of the coin-flip, 8-9 or 10-7 games that you?re back and forth on in separate brackets will boost your chances of at least one bracket finishing in the money.

Rule No. 9: The bigger the pool ...

The more chances you should take.

In a pool with hundreds of entries, you?re going to have to hit a pretty remarkable rate to win or finish the money. So, while still sticking with a chalk-heavy approach, take a shot at few more upsets in the big, national pools that are out there.

Rule No. 10: BYU is overrated

The Cougars have lost eight straight first-round games.

Each year, they stockpile stats against the dregs of the Mountain West, but struggle against the top teams from the mid-tier conference.

Cougar star Jimmer Fredette is very good and can keep BYU in a game. But as their MWC tournament loss to UNLV showed, the Cougars struggle against even a middle-of-the-pack team with superior athleticism.

Rule No. 11: Respect No. 1 seeds

?They earned those No. 1 seeds because they've been the best teams in college basketball. Never call for a No. 1 seed to get upset before the Sweet 16 at the earliest, and always include at least two No. 1 seeds in your Final Four.? ? Covers Expert Teddy Sevransky.

Rule No. 12: Know the half-court game

?At tournament time, when the pace tends to slow and the games become more half-court oriented, we like to focus on teams that are comfortable playing that well, while many times lower our ratings on teams that live by running and pressing.? ? Covers Expert David Malinsky.

Rule No. 13: Extra homework on 5-12 games.

?Don?t take a No. 5 seed over a No. 12 seed without first giving it extra thought. In recent years it?s been the No. 12 seeds upsetting the No. 5 seeds with more frequency than expected.

?Still, make sure you do a little extra homework before you randomly assign one or two 12 seeds into the second round.? ?***************

Rule No. 14: Trust your eyes

Even the most overwhelming statistical trends mean nothing, if you back a team that is athletically overmatched. If you?re lucky enough to have seen two teams in a particular matchup play, trust what you?ve seen more than what you read.

Rule No. 15: Rebounding rules

When the pace slows down, rebounding becomes even more important.

The top 10 rebounding teams in the tournament are: Michigan State, Old Dominion, Kentucky, Baylor, Kansas, Texas, San Diego State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, West Virginia and Duke.

Good luck, Bitches.

 

[Lumi]

Four first-round matchups you don't want to miss

Four first-round matchups you don't want to miss

Four first-round matchups you don't want to miss

The first round of the NCAA Tournament usually features a lot more blowouts than buzzer-beaters, but here are four games (one from each regional) that you will want to watch if you like close games, near-upsets and matchups that make this the best 48-hour period in all of sports:

East

No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Old Dominion (+2, 122) - The Irish (23-11) caught fire late in the year by winning six straight games before falling to Big East Tournament champion West Virginia by two points in Friday's semifinal game. The lesser-known Monarchs (26-8) won eight of their last nine en route to the Colonial Athletic Assocation Tournament title, with the lone loss coming to tourney-bound Northern Iowa. Senior leaders Luke Harangody of the Irish and Gerald Lee of the Monarchs will be the undercard match in a game that could surprise those who think Old Dominion is a '70s rock band.

Midwest

No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 San Diego State (+3, 131) - Both teams are 23-8 and the similarities don't stop there. The Aztecs have won nine of their last 10 to claim the Mountain West Conference regular-season and tournament titles, but they are 22-6 outside the league and match up well with major-conference teams. The Volunteers had won seven of their last eight before running into the Kentucky buzzsaw Saturday, but they are the only team with wins over the Wildcats and Kansas, so they are capable of playing with anybody. Watch the matchup between top scorers and rebounders Kawhi Leonard of SDSU and Tennessee's Wayne Chism.

South

No. 6 Marquette vs. No. 11 Washington (+1.5, 141.5) - The Huskies (24-9) got hot when it counted and won their last seven games, including the Pac-10 Tournament championship game over Cal on Saturday night. The (22-11) Golden Eagles won nine of their last 11 in the much-tougher Big East, with the loses coming to tourney-bound teams Georgetown and Notre Dame. Expect an awesome inside battle between top scorers and rebounders Quincy Poindexter (19.8 ppg, 7.5 rpg) of Washington and Lazar Hayward (17.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg).

West

No. 7 BYU vs. No. 10 Florida (-4, 148) - Both teams may be perceived to be backing into the tournament after suffering late losses. Florida (22-12) dropped four of its last five and the Cougars lost two of their last five, but the matchup between Billy Donovon's Gators and Dave Rose's Cougars is intriguing at the very least. Both try to spread the floor, although BYU does it with more success. The Cougars rank second in the nation in total offense and treys but the more athletic Gators can get up and down the court and will try to push the pace against BYU and shut down leading scorer Jimmey Friddette on the perimeter.

 

[Lumi]

Big East, Big 12 put big dent in Big Dance

Big East, Big 12 put big dent in Big Dance

Big East, Big 12 put big dent in Big Dance

The more things change in college basketball the more they stay the same, and that's the case again with the power conferences in this year's NCAA Tournament.

Since 1990, 16 of the 19 teams to win the national title were members of the Big East, Big 12, ACC or SEC and that streak could continue with each of the No. 1 seeds hailing from those four leagues - Kansas, Kentucky, Duke and Syracuse.

The Big East led all leagues in tournament representation by sending eight teams to the Big Dance, including the No. 1 seeded Orange in the West Regional, No. 2s Villanova and West Virginia, and No. 3s Pittsburgh and Georgetown. Marquette and Notre Dame claimed No. 6 seeds and Louisville was the lowest seeded at No. 9.

The Big 12 was close behind with seven teams in the Big Dance as Kansas captured the overall No. 1 seed in the Midwest Regional. Kansas State took a No. 2 seed, Baylor is a No. 3, Texas A&M is a No. 5. Oklahoma State claimed a No. 7 seed, Texas took a No. 8 and Missouri slipped into the field as a No. 10 seed.

The ACC scored six teams in the tournament and Duke captured the top seed in the East Regional after winning the league's regular-season and tournament titles, but the rest are seeded lower than the ACC is used to scoring. Maryland is a No. 4 seed, Clemson rated a No. 7, Florida State and Wake Forest is a No. 9 and Georgia Tech got in as a No. 10.

The Big Ten landed five teams in the Big Dance with conference tournament and regular-season champion Ohio State settling for a No. 2 seed. Wisconsin and Purdue grabbed No. 4 seeds, Michigan State claimed a No. 5 and Minnesota got in as a No. 11 despite being blown out by the Buckeyes on Sunday.

The SEC had a down year with only four teams making the field of 65, all four hailing from the East Division, including Kentucky's top-seeding in the South Regional. Vanderbilt surprised many by earning a No. 4 seed, Tennessee took a No. 6 and Florida got in as a No. 10 seed despite losing four of its last five. Absent from the list is Mississippi State, which lost a heartbreaker to the Wildcats in overtime Sunday for a chance to get an automatic bid.

The Pac-10 was the biggest loser among the power conferences with only two teams in the tournament and neither earned much respect in the seedings. California is a No. 8 seed and Washington slipped in as a No. 11.

Two mid-major conferences - the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West - did better than the Pac-10 with three teams apiece.

 

[Jerwin#2]

Big East, Big 12 put big dent in Big Dance

The more things change in college basketball the more they stay the same, and that's the case again with the power conferences in this year's NCAA Tournament.

Since 1990, 16 of the 19 teams to win the national title were members of the Big East, Big 12, ACC or SEC and that streak could continue with each of the No. 1 seeds hailing from those four leagues - Kansas, Kentucky, Duke and Syracuse.

The Big East led all leagues in tournament representation by sending eight teams to the Big Dance, including the No. 1 seeded Orange in the West Regional, No. 2s Villanova and West Virginia, and No. 3s Pittsburgh and Georgetown. Marquette and Notre Dame claimed No. 6 seeds and Louisville was the lowest seeded at No. 9.

The Big 12 was close behind with seven teams in the Big Dance as Kansas captured the overall No. 1 seed in the Midwest Regional. Kansas State took a No. 2 seed, Baylor is a No. 3, Texas A&M is a No. 5. Oklahoma State claimed a No. 7 seed, Texas took a No. 8 and Missouri slipped into the field as a No. 10 seed.

The ACC scored six teams in the tournament and Duke captured the top seed in the East Regional after winning the league's regular-season and tournament titles, but the rest are seeded lower than the ACC is used to scoring. Maryland is a No. 4 seed, Clemson rated a No. 7, Florida State and Wake Forest is a No. 9 and Georgia Tech got in as a No. 10.

The Big Ten landed five teams in the Big Dance with conference tournament and regular-season champion Ohio State settling for a No. 2 seed. Wisconsin and Purdue grabbed No. 4 seeds, Michigan State claimed a No. 5 and Minnesota got in as a No. 11 despite being blown out by the Buckeyes on Sunday.

The SEC had a down year with only four teams making the field of 65, all four hailing from the East Division, including Kentucky's top-seeding in the South Regional. Vanderbilt surprised many by earning a No. 4 seed, Tennessee took a No. 6 and Florida got in as a No. 10 seed despite losing four of its last five. Absent from the list is Mississippi State, which lost a heartbreaker to the Wildcats in overtime Sunday for a chance to get an automatic bid.

The Pac-10 was the biggest loser among the power conferences with only two teams in the tournament and neither earned much respect in the seedings. California is a No. 8 seed and Washington slipped in as a No. 11.

Two mid-major conferences - the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West - did better than the Pac-10 with three teams apiece.

Like your analysis.
Whos your final eight? All Chalk?
thanks

 

[Lumi]

not my write up

I like San Diego St:toast:

 

[Lumi]

West Regional Round One Wagering Overview

West Regional Round One Wagering Overview

West Regional Round One Wagering Overview

Syracuse (28-4, 19-9 ATS) was sent out West after losing last two games, which might be to their benefit. The Orangemen have had time to get healthier, which is very important for Arinze Onuaku (reports are he will miss first game). No No.1 seed has ever lost to a No. 16 (100-0), but Syracuse lost to Vermont (25-9) a few seasons ago in the first round as a fourth seed. The Orangemen didn?t lose a game outside the RPI Top 50, is 10-3 ATS away and is posted 17.5-point favorite.

They will face the winner of Gonzaga (26-6, 15-11-2 ATS) and Florida State (22-9, 8-18 ATS), where something has to give. The Zags are fifth in the country in offensive field goal percentage (49.1) and the Seminoles are first in field goal percentage defense (37.4). Gonzaga?s defense is better than Florida State?s offense; nevertheless the Noles are still a 1.5-point favorite.

UTEP (26-6, 14-14 ATS) was upset by Houston in C-USA final, however it was their third game in 36 hours and they were dead in their sneakers at the end when they lost. That won?t be the case against Butler (28-4, 13-19 ATS), who has issues with athletic teams. The Bulldogs can?t run and gun with the Miners or they fall in classic 5 vs. 12 matchup, with the higher seed run of the mill 20-16 SU the last nine years. Butler is favored by 2.5-points at Bookmaker.com, however UTEP holds teams to 38.8 percent shooting and averages almost nine steals game. Upset brewing?

Another possible upset is fourth seeded Vanderbilt (24-8, 15-14 ATS) against Ohio Valley champion Murray State. Vandy is 3-3 SU in last six outings and the Racers shoot over 50 percent and hold opposing teams to 38.6 percent. The Commodores may win; nonetheless taking the three points with Murray State (30-4, 15-13-1 ATS) might be valuable.

The Sun Belt champs North Texas (24-8) like to play all 94 feet and could be troublesome for team looking ahead and are 17-7-1 ATS this year.
Unfortunately, Kansas State (26-7, 19-9 ATS) rarely takes a night off with coach Frank Martin?s intensity and the Mean Green give up too many easy buckets in the paint. North Texas is on the receiving end of 16-points and could be above average first half wager.

BYU (29-5, 18-13 ATS) hasn?t been a factor in the tournament in recent appearances (last NCAA win was 1993), but that might change against very ordinary Florida squad. The Cougars are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country and what they may lack in quickness; they at least have tall timber to compete in the lane with the Gators. Florida (21-12, 15-13 ATS) is 1-4 in previous five and in the immortal words of former New York Yankee great Yogi Berra, the Gators ?play good enough to lose?. Line makers have Cougs by 4.5 over Gainesville gang.

Oakland U. (26-8, 6-8 ATS) is 20-1 since Dec. 28; however is 0-4 against teams in the tournament, losing by 27.2 points a contest. Pittsburgh?s demeanor will determine if they cover the spread, like when the Panthers (24-8, 16-11-2 ATS) lost to Indiana and at South Florida. Pittsburgh is not always pretty, yet coach Jamie Dixon strives to squeeze the most out is talent and the Cats are 10-point faves.

Xavier (24-8, 20-11 ATS) and Minnesota (21-13, 17-16 ATS) is intriguing conflict. Both teams are well-coached and play solid defense. The Musketeers are better offensively at 80 points per game and forward Jason Love has to be smart and not get into foul trouble; otherwise the edge goes to the bigger Golden Gophers who can score easier in the paint if Love is on the bench. For Hoosier Jamal Crawford is now part of the X-men and looks to show the Big Ten the wrong team is favored.

 

[Lumi]

South Regional Round One Wagering Overview

South Regional Round One Wagering Overview

South Regional Round One Wagering Overview

It?s hard to call a top seed a dark horse, yet that is how this Duke (29-5, 18-14-1 ATS) team feels. Of the top 10 teams in the country over the last month, this is one squad that is unquestionably better today than a month ago; pencil them into Sweet 16 this tournament.

For the California (23-10, 19-13 ATS) and Louisville (20-12, 10-17 ATS) contest, assigning each a heads or tails might be the best way to choose a winner. Cal won regular season Pac-10 title in mediocre league, yet can?t discount good guard play and 8-2 SU and ATS finish. The Cardinals are too unpredictable from game to game to figure and could win or lose by 15 or more points. No wonder this game opened as a Pick.

Utah State (27-7, 19-10-1 ATS) is a good squad, but faced only three teams in the RPI Top 50 (1-2). The Aggies will take on the Aggies from Texas A&M (23-9, 18-10 ATS), who have many of the same qualities, except they are bigger and stronger and from a superior conference. Big teams with rebounders bother Utah State, yet they are still only a three point underdog at Bookmaker.com.

Siena (27-6, 16-13-2 ATS) will be a popular choice to upset Purdue (27-5, 13-18-1 ATS) as four point dogs, who were putrid in Big Ten semis, being waxed by 27. Nevertheless, Boilermaker pride and stifling defense gives them a chance and people are thinking of prior Saints squads that had success in the tournament. This Siena team is not nearly as athletic.

Honestly was shocked to see Villanova (24-7, 18-12 ATS) a two seed with five defeats in last seven games. With Scottie Reynolds and other guards they do present matchup difficulties, but falter in the paint area offensively and defensively. Robert Morris (23-11, 3-4 ATS) will provide first game opposition as 18.5 point underdogs, led by freshman Karon Abraham. For trivia buffs, Robert Morris was known as the "Financier of the American Revolution" and first president George Washington lived in his mansion for his two terms in Philadelphia, which was then the nation?s capital.

Richmond (26-7, 19-10-1 ATS) and St. Mary?s (26-5, 20-9-1 ATS) is excellent confrontation, with the winner getting Nova. Both have been sharp plays as visitors, with Richmond 13-5 and St. Mary?s 9-4 against the spread. Two keys- How the Gaels contain guard Kevin Anderson and what the Spiders do with center Omar Samhan. Richmond is two-point pick.

The most complete No. 3 seed is Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS), with size and quickness all over the court and are 11.5-point faves over Southland Conference champions Sam Houston State (27-6), who distributes the ball well with a league leading 20.4 assists per game.

Baylor is presumed to take on the winner of Notre Dame (23-11, 17-10-1 ATS) and Old Dominion (26-8, 12-17-1 ATS) contest. The Monarchs hold opposing teams to only 57.1 points a game and really crash the offensive glass. The Irish change in style has meant more wins and improved defense. What club shoots better and has rebound edge is your winner.

 

[Lumi]

Federal workers prohibited from filling out brackets

Federal workers prohibited from filling out brackets

Federal workers prohibited from filling out brackets

A federal employee attempted to enter an NCAA Tournament bracket pool run on The Washington Post website but the entry was denied, the media outlet reported Monday.

The employee distributed the below e-mail last Friday entitled: Gambling in the Federal Workplace.

College basketball teams are now playing in their respective league championship tournaments and soon the "NCAA March Madness" brackets will be announced. Many sports fans are accustomed to placing a friendly wager on a favorite team. While betting a few dollars on sports is often viewed as a harmless social pastime, if done at work it runs afoul of the Federal regulations that prohibit gambling for money or property in the Federal workplace. Predicting teams that will advance in a college basketball bracket purely for fun or picking winners to claim bragging rights in the office are not the types of conduct that generally raise concerns.

Federal rules on gambling are found at sections 735.201 of title 5 and 102-74.395 of title 41 of the Code of Federal Regulations. Specifically, these sections prohibit employees from gambling while on duty, or while on government-owned or leased property, unless necessitated by their official duties. These restrictions apply not only to Federal employees, but also to members of the public at large, contractors, vendors, and exhibitors when on GSA-controlled property.

Violations of the regulations may be cause for disciplinary action by the employee's agency, which may be in addition to any penalty prescribed by law.

The only authorized exception is for activities and games that take place during the time period of the annual Combined Federal Campaign (CFC), in accordance with Executive Order 12353. However, CFC raffles are not synonymous with gambling when conducted in accordance with part 950 of title 5 of the Code of Federal Regulations.

Legally defined, gambling requires 3 elements:

1. A game of chance,
2. Consideration for the opportunity to play the game, and
3. An offering of a prize.

A game of chance includes, but is not limited to, a raffle, lottery, sports pool, game of cards, the selling or purchasing of a numbers slip or ticket, or any game for money or property. Consideration includes a participation fee, a wager of money, and something of value in return for the possibility of winning a reward or prize. A prize would include a monetary award, or a tangible or intangible item. Examples include meals, drinks, administrative leave, gift certificates, tickets to events, or cash.

In addition to the OPM and GSA regulations, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO), Policy for Personal Use of Information Technology Resources, HHS-OCIO-2006-0001, section 5.4.3 (2/17/06), prohibits the use of government equipment, such as computers and e-mail, for illegal gambling activities. This includes related e-mails sent from a personal account if done using a government computer.

Violations of this policy may be cause for loss of use or restricted use of government equipment, disciplinary action, or financial liability.

 

[Lumi]

Major movements: Tourney spreads fluctuate after open

Major movements: Tourney spreads fluctuate after open

Major movements: Tourney spreads fluctuate after open

The spreads for the 2010 NCAA Tournament were released on Sunday evening at the majority of offshore sportsbooks.

Those opening numbers danced around for hours as the public and wiseguys hit them hard. Below are a few of the largest and most interesting line movements so far.

Open: Tennessee -3.5
Current: Tennessee -3

The Vols (and the SEC for that matter) aren?t getting much respect in a matchup against San Diego State after getting blown out by nearly 30 against Kentucky in the semifinal round of the SEC tournament. The Aztecs won the Mountain West tourney.

Open: Villanova -19.5
Current: Villanova -18.5

The Wildcats are playing poor basketball right now, having lost two straight and five of their last seven games. Robert Morris was a half point shy of covering as a 15 seed last year.

Open: St. Mary?s -1
Current: St. Mary?s +2

This spread can actually be found as high as 2.5 but most markets are offering 2 in favor of Richmond. Both teams defeated four other teams in the tournament during the season.

Open: Kentucky -21
Current: Kentucky -19.5

The youth of Kentucky has plenty of prognosticators calling for an early tournament exit. Not opening round early, but this movement can possibly be attributed to the possibility of the Wildcats not coming into this game entirely focused on their inferior opponent.

Open: Baylor -12.5
Current: Baylor -10.5

Sam Houston State defeated the Bears, 81-64, the last time they played ? Dec. 7, 1999.

Open: Notre Dame -4
Current: Notre Dame -1.5

The Irish had to string together a bunch of wins at the end of the season to get into the tournament while the Monarchs were the class of the Colonial all season.

Open: Vanderbilt -4
Current: Vanderbilt -2.5

The Commodores looked like a lost team in their semifinal matchup versus Mississippi State in the SEC tourney.

Open: Syracuse -19
Current: Syracuse -17.5

The news that ?Cuse center Arinze Onuaku will miss the game versus Vermont has dropped this line.

Open: California -1.5
Current: California PK

The fact that Cal has to travel 3,000 miles across the country to play this game against Louisville has put some bettors on the Cardinals.

Open: Oklahoma State PK
Current: Oklahoma State -1.5

Some bracketologists are still scratching their heads as to how in the world Georgia Tech got into this tournament over Virginia Tech. The Cowboys dominated Kansas at home in late February.

 

[Lumi]

NCAA Tournament Trends by Conference

NCAA Tournament Trends by Conference

NCAA Tournament Trends by Conference

This time of the year is commonly referred to as ?March Madness? because of the hysteria caused by the college basketball tournament. For office poolers, bracketologists, and bettors, the most maddening thing can be not being prepared for success. Well, I?m here to take care of one important piece of the preparation, the recent tournament trends, at least where the various conferences are concerned. After all, how can you expect to succeed this year if you don?t at least recognize the recent patterns forming?

Here are a few general trends regarding matchups between various level conferences, followed by specific trends for each conference. Next to each league, I?ve listed the rating at which that StatFox recognizes that conference.


In matchups where an ?A? teams is seeded better than a ?B?, that ?A? team is 28-17 ATS (62%) since ?05.

?A? vs. ?D? matchups have been dominated by the ?A? teams, 28-3 SU & 20-8-3 ATS (71%) over the L3 years.

Twelve of the last 14 (86%) matchups between better seeded ?B? teams and ?A? teams have gone OVER the total.

In matchups between two ?B? level teams, the better seeded clubs are 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS (100%).

When ?B? conference teams play as better seeds against lesser conference teams, they are just 8-15 ATS (35%) since ?00.

Since ?99, when ?B? teams have been favored over ?A? teams, OVER the total is 25-13 (66%).

ACC (A)

Over the last three tournaments, North Carolina is 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS. All other ACC teams are a combined 9-15 SU & 7-16-1 ATS.

As favorites of 5-points or less in the NCAA Tournament, ACC teams have lost their last eight games against the spread (1-7 SU). UNDER the total is 7-1 in those games.

ACC teams are 51-1 SU but 24-26-2 ATS as double-digit favorites in the Big Dance since ?98. UNDER the total is 34-16-2 in such scenarios.

In tournament games between the Big East & ACC, UNDERDOGS are on a run of 9-13 SU but 15-6-1 ATS. The Big East holds the 13-9 SU & 13-8-1 ATS edge.

Atlantic 10 (B)


Xavier is on a 9-5 SU & 12-1-1 ATS run in the NCAA?s. All other Atlantic 10 teams are 5-10 SU & 3-11-1 ATS in that same time span, since ?04.

The last six tournament games between the A-10 and Big East have been covered by underdogs (5-1 SU).

Favorites are on a run of 17-2 SU & 12-5-2 ATS in Atlantic 10 NCAA Tournament games.

Big 12 (A)


The Big 12 has been one of the best conferences in the tournament over the last two years, 23-11 SU & 24-10 ATS, including 19-0 SU & 17-2 ATS as favorites!

Big 12 teams boast an 18-9 SU & 16-11 ATS in the NCAA?s over the last two years.

As favorites in the -7 to -13.5 range, Big 12 teams are on an incredible run of 28-2 SU & 25-5 ATS in the NCAA?s since ?98.

As underdogs of 4.5-points or more, Big 12 teams are 1-21 SU but 14-8 ATS since ?98 in the tournament.

As a pick em? or small favorite (<=2.5 points) in the L12 NCAA Tournaments, the Big 12 is 17-7 SU & ATS.

In tourney games between the Big East & Big 12 over the last four years, favorites are on a run of 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS, and the over is 7-1-1. In the Big Ten-Big 12 series, the favorites are on a 9-0 SU & ATS run.

Dating back 11 years, the Big 12 boasts an 11-6 SU & 13-4 ATS record vs. the Pac 10 in the NCAA?s.

Big East (A)


Over the last four years, oddsmakers have priced out Big East teams, as they are 46-29 SU but just 32-42-1 ATS in the tournament.

As a favorite of 3-points or less in the tournament, the Big East is just 7-10 SU & 5-12 ATS in its L17 chances.

Once a highly reliable underdog in the NCAA?s, Big East teams are just 5-15 SU & 8-12 ATS as such since ?06.

Against ?C? level conferences in the tournament, the Big East is just 12-7 SU & 4-15 ATS over the last 12 years.

Nine of the last 10 tournament matchups between the Big Ten and Big East have gone UNDER the total. Dogs are 7-3 SU & ATS in those games.

Several significant trends have formed in the tourney series between the Big East & Pac 10 of late. Since ?02, favorites are 13-1 SU & 10-3-1 ATS, while the Big East holds a 10-4 SU & 9-4-1 ATS edge. OVER the total is also 10-3-1.

Big Ten (A)


As underdogs of 5-points or less, Big Ten teams are a solid group to advance in your brackets 25-15 SU & 26-14 ATS.

Big Ten teams are a bankroll-building 35-2 SU & 24-9-4 ATS in the tournament in games when favored by 6.5-points or more over the last decade.

Not typically respected like the other power ?A? conferences, Big Ten teams are 15-9 SU & 16-8 ATS in the head-to-head competition of the L3 tournaments.

In tournament games pitting the Big Ten versus Conference USA since ?99, favorites are a perfect 7-0 SU & ATS.

Conversely in NCAA tourney games pitting the Big Ten versus the SEC since ?99, underdogs are a healthy 8-9 SU & 12-5 ATS. The Big Ten leads those games 11-6 SU & ATS.

Conference USA (B)


Conference USA teams other than Memphis are just 7-8 SU & 5-10 ATS in their L15 tournament games.

Favorites dominate Conference USA action in the NCAA Tournament, 33-7 SU & 26-14 ATS since ?03. As favorites of 7-points or more themselves, C-USA teams are 16-2 SU but just 6-12 ATS since ?98.

C-USA teams are just 6-18 SU & 7-17 ATS in their L24 NCAA Tournament games when playing as the underdog.

Combined against teams from the Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten conferences, C-USA teams are just 8-16 SU & 6-18 ATS in the NCAA?s since ?98.

OVER has been the total of choice in Conference USA NCAA tourney games, 34-17-2 since ?02, including nine of the last 10 games.

Mountain West (B)


Mountain West teams are a just 8-22 SU & 9-18-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since ?00, and no team from the MWC ever advanced past the Sweet 16.

MWC teams are a combined 2-14 SU & 3-13 ATS versus the Big 12, Big East, SEC, and Big Ten in the NCAA?s since ?00.

OVER the total has been the result in nine of the L11 Mountain West NCAA Tournament games.

PAC 10 (A)


Favorites own a 34-8 SU & 28-14 ATS mark in the last two years of Pac 10 NCAA Tournament games. Pac 10 teams are just 18-24 ATS in that span.

Dating back to UCLA?s loss to Florida in the ?06 title game, Pac 10 teams have been HORRIBLE as underdogs in the NCAA Tournament, 3-14 SU & ATS.

Pac 10 teams are 22-20 SU but just 14-26-2 ATS in rounds two and three of the NCAA?s since ?02.

Against non-power conferences, or those graded ?B? or below, Pac 10 teams are 17-1 SU & 13-5 ATS over the L4 tournaments.

Pac 10 NCAA Tournament favorites of 7-points or more have gone 11-1 UNDER the total the last five years, allowing just 52.2 PPG.

SEC (A)


Since Florida?s championship in 2007, SEC teams are a mediocre 5-9 SU & ATS in the tournament.

The SEC has only one once in its L19 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of more than 5-points, and is 9-10 ATS. However, as an underdog of 5-points or less, SEC teams are 18-14 SU & 20-11-1 ATS since ?98.

The SEC has enjoyed success against non-power conference foes in the NCAA?s over the last five years, going 15-5 SU & 13-7 ATS.

Over the last three years, 17 of the L28 SEC NCAA Tournament games have gone OVER the total.

Other Notable Recent Tournament Trends by Conference


America East (D) teams have gone UNDER the total in nine of their L13 tourney games, scoring just 55.7 PPG.

Atlantic Sun (D) teams are 0-8 SU in the NCAA?s since ?02, but 6-2 ATS.

Big Sky (C) teams have lost their last four tournament games, both SU & ATS, by an average of 20.8 PPG.

Big South (D) teams are 9-3 UNDER the total in the last 12 years of the tournament, scoring just 56.4 PPG.

Dating back to ?00, Colonial Athletic Association (C) teams are 12-4-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, pulling three first round upsets.

Horizon League (C) teams are 9-11 SU & 12-8 ATS in the NCAA?s since the league?s inception in ?02.

The Ivy League (C) hasn?t won a NCAA Tournament game since ?98, going 1-11 ATS.

MAC (B) teams haven?t won a game in the NCAA?s since ?03 and are 3-4 ATS in that span, including two outright losses as favorites.

After going 9-1 ATS between ?98 & ?05, MEAC (D) teams have gone 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS since in the NCAA?s.

Against teams from the ACC, Big 12, and SEC, the Missouri Valley Conference (B) is on a 15-4 ATS run in the NCAA Tournament.

Northeast (D) teams are 2-0 SU & ATS in the play-in game, winning in ?06 & ?08.

Ohio Valley (C) teams are on a 5-1 ATS run in the Big Dance, including a win in the play-in game of ?09.

Patriot League (D) teams are on a 7-4 ATS run in the NCAA?s with two outright upsets to their credit.

Fueled mostly by Davidson?s success, Southern Conference (C) teams are 9-2 ATS in the NCAA?s since ?02.

The Summit League (C), formerly known as the Mid-Continent, is on a 12-game losing streak in the tournament?s Round of 64, going 2-10 ATS.

The Sun Belt (C) has been one of the country?s best bets in the NCAA?s of late, going 3-8 SU but 8-3 ATS since ?03.

Since covering six straight from ?02-04, the WAC (B) is on a brutal 2-9 SU & 3-9 ATS skid in the NCAA Tournament.

West Coast (C) teams are 6-8 SU and 3-11 ATS in the Big Dance since ?05. OVER the total is 10-4 in that span.

 

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Betting on NCAA Tournament Champion

Betting on NCAA Tournament Champion

Betting on NCAA Tournament Champion

The field of 64 is set; you like many people have filled out numerous brackets in a variety of pools and now it is time to start breaking down the various first round matchups, looking for edges and spotting those potential early round exits by favorites. Having the benefit of using the point spread helps in many cases and mustering up the courage on money line dogs is another way to make hard currency when betting college basketball. But what about the ?home run? wager, picking the winner of the entire NCAA Tournament, which can offer a decent payout depending on the winner.

Even with the large field, most years, around 10 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don?t bring home the cash betting futures. In the last 13 years, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson?s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980?s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano?s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.

Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in their own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.

A few years ago, I heard ESPN analyst Jimmy Dykes doing a game late in the season and he was talking about what characteristics make up a NCAA champion. I happened to be taping that game and able to save the information and do the research.

Here is his list and what has occurred.

? 9 of 9 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak
? 8 of 12 past champions won their conference tournament
? 20 of 22 past champions had NBA player 6?8 or taller
? 21 of 22 past champions had NBA a guard

It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 24 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule their way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketball squads that ruled there conferences.

Number of consecutive wins: (Note- Four teams has two such streaks)

20 ? Butler
19- Kentucky
17 ? Murray State, Texas, Utah State
16 ? UTEP
15- New Mexico (12), No. Iowa, Siena, BYU
14- Kansas (13), Purdue (10)
13- Wofford
12- Syracuse (11)
11- Morgan State, No. Texas, Oakland U. Sam Houston St., Villanova, West Virginia
10- Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State

The most notable absence from this list is No. 1 seed Duke. If one believes in the power of the numbers, than the Blue Devils are a non-factor, missing the top criteria.

From this point, we move to conference tournament champions. This is where we can start really eliminating teams. Let?s be honest, its obvious Wofford, Morgan State, No.Texas, Oakland and Sam Houston State have no shot at winning six games in a row against this field, thus we can eliminate that group from the field.

That leaves us with six teams that met the first and second variable that would at least in theory have chance to win the championship. Those teams would be West Virginia, No. Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Temple and Butler.

The next areas are somewhat subjective, however I watch a ton of college basketball (yes I have a life and wife) and went through a number of websites that discuss players with professional potential that are likely to be drafted in the NBA.

Starting with West Virginia, DeSean Butler has been in many discussions for national player of the year and looks the part of NBA player; nonetheless he is listed at 6?7, falling literally just short of this criterion. 6?9 Devin Banks might blossom in the years ahead, but has not yet been given such prominence. The Mountaineers have good college guards, yet nothing that appears to be pro material.

Northern Iowa has two players that might be better suited to play in the D-League or overseas in C Jordan Eglasedar and F Adam Koch. The Panthers have smallish guards that shoot the ball well from the perimeter and handle the rock, yet they lack the size or quickness to be next level players.

Bill Self is one of the best recruiters in the country and does he have talent. Cole Aldrich is sure-fire first round selection whenever he comes out and the Morris brothers (Marcus and Markieff) are 6?8 or 6?9 and getting better on regular basis. Sherron Collins is border-line to be NBA guard at 5?11, but that doesn?t mean he won?t be on NBA roster and be a like former Jayhawks guard Jacque Vaughn. The more likely candidate from the Kansas backcourt to draw a salary playing pro ball is freshman Xavier Henry.

You don?t have to have a ?Basketball Jones? diploma to see John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson will all probably be playing for one of the 30 NBA teams next season, since most presume they are all coming out. Another year or two and 6?10 Daniel Orton will be joining his Kentucky teammates, along with possibly a couple more off of John Calipari?s squad.

Butler has the longest winning streak in college hoops and is battled tested. Are they really good enough to win a NCAA Tournament, most likely not, but that hasn?t stopped NBA scouts from getting a closer look at sophomore Gordon Hayward. Also, guard Shelvin Mack has a number of positive qualities and like Hayward is just second year player who as of yet does not have a ceiling on his talent.

Temple has a pair of dandy guards in Ryan Brooks and Juan Fernandez. Brooks is a senior and his name doesn?t show up in any draft-nik websites I went through. Fernandez is a good looking player, but seems to be more in the discovery stage in terms of his ability. 6?9 Levoy Allen?s stock is on the rise, but similar to Fernandez, is still moving up the charts for NBA prospects, not on them.

While this might be more boring than oatmeal, Kansas and Kentucky are the two teams that meet all four quadrants of this study. While it is more fun to pick the right team from out of the pack, choosing the right winner is more important. Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.

 

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THURSDAY'S NCAA TOURNAMENT CAPSULES

THURSDAY'S NCAA TOURNAMENT CAPSULES

THURSDAY'S NCAA TOURNAMENT CAPSULES

SPECIAL TO THE REVIEW-JOURNAL
EAST REGIONAL

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 16 East Tennessee State

■ SITE: New Orleans

■ TIME: 4:15 p.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Dick Enberg play-by-play, Jay Bilas analyst

■ THE SPREAD: Kentucky by 20?

■ RECORDS: Kentucky 32-2, East Tennessee State 20-14

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: Kentucky averages 14.5 turnovers per game, and ETSU forces 16.7 turnovers per game. UK's sloppiness won't matter in this one, but the stat bears watching in future rounds.

■ THE BUZZ: UK hasn't won an NCAA tourney game in three years -- since March 17, 2007. That streak will end Thursday. ETSU is athletic and defense-minded, but it doesn't have the size to compete for long with Kentucky. ETSU's best player is F Tommy Hubbard, who is 6 feet 4 inches. This game is 21 years to the day that a 16th-seeded ETSU team took top-seeded Oklahoma to the wire before losing by one in an NCAA first-round game. ETSU won't have the same type of memories from this one.

No. 6 Marquette vs. No. 11 Washington

■ SITE: San Jose, Calif.

■ TIME: 4:20 p.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Spero Dedes play-by-play, Bob Wenzel analyst

■ THE SPREAD: Marquette by 1?

■ RECORDS: Marquette 22-11, Washington 24-9

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: Washington averages 79.8 points per game, and Marquette allows 64.2 per game.

■ THE BUZZ: Washington wants a fast-paced affair; the Huskies were held to fewer than 70 points eight times and lost five of those games. Marquette wouldn't mind a game in the high 60s. The Golden Eagles take good care of the ball, but Washington forces 16.1 turnovers per game and thrives in transition. Huskies F Quincy Pondexter's battles with Marquette forwards Jimmy Butler and Lazar Hayward will be fun to watch, but the key guy is Washington G Isaiah Thomas. If the score gets upward of 75, Washington will win.

No. 8 Texas vs. No. 9 Wake Forest

■ SITE: New Orleans

■ TIME: 6:45 p.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Dick Enberg play-by-play, Jay Bilas analyst

■ THE SPREAD: Texas by 4?

■ RECORDS: Texas 24-9, Wake Forest 19-10

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: Wake comes in having lost five of its past six.

■ THE BUZZ: Both teams underachieved this season. Texas was 17-0 at one point this season, and ranked No. 1, before crumbling. At the end of the season, Wake looked as if it had packed it in. But each team has some talent, most notably at forward with Texas' Damion James and Wake's Al-Farouq Aminu. Still, the play of the backcourts will determine the winner. Pay close attention to Wake's Ishmael Smith and Texas' Avery Bradley, a Findlay Prep product.

No. 3 New Mexico vs. No. 14 Montana

■ SITE: San Jose, Calif.

■ TIME: 6:50 p.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Spero Dedes play-by-play, Bob Wenzel analyst

■ THE SPREAD: New Mexico by 9

■ RECORDS: New Mexico 29-4, Montana 22-9

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: Montana has one player, senior G Anthony Johnson, who averages in double figures; New Mexico has four.

■ THE BUZZ: Montana was a surprise winner of the Big Sky tourney, and everyone knows Johnson is the reason the Grizzlies are here. Expect the Lobos to do everything in their power to slow him; no other Grizzlies player is that good offensively, though Montana does shoot 40.4 percent from 3-point range as a team. New Mexico is great on the offensive boards, and Montana has proved vulnerable in that category. The Grizzlies need a huge game from Johnson.

SOUTH REGIONAL

No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Old Dominion

■ SITE: New Orleans

■ TIME: 9:25 a.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Dick Enberg play-by-play, Jay Bilas analyst

■ THE SPREAD: Notre Dame by 2

■ RECORDS: Notre Dame 23-11, ODU 26-8

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: ODU outrebounds opponents by almost nine per game.

■ THE BUZZ: Notre Dame caught fire late in the season -- after an injury to star F Luke Harangody. The Irish became much more deliberate on offense and stayed that way after Harangody's return during the Big East tourney. That pace certainly won't bother ODU, which is a deliberate team known for its defense. ODU has good size and is extremely physical and actually prefers the bump-and-grind style of play. ODU is not all that proficient offensively, especially from 3-point range, but Notre Dame isn't exactly a clampdown team on defense. ODU does a good job forcing turnovers, but the Irish lead the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio. ODU has a solid shot at an upset if senior big man Gerald Lee plays well offensively.

No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 15 Robert Morris

■ SITE: Providence, R.I.

■ TIME: 9:30 a.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Verne Lundquist play-by-play, Bill Raftery analyst

■ THE SPREAD: Villanova by 19

■ RECORDS: Villanova 24-7, Robert Morris 23-11

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: Villanova has lost five of its past seven.

■ THE BUZZ: Villanova stumbled down the stretch. The Wildcats won't lose this game, but their performance against the Colonials could give some clues as to how far 'Nova can be expected to advance. Robert Morris plays good defense and should be able to hang around for at least a half.

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Sam Houston State

■ SITE: New Orleans

■ TIME: 11:55 a.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Dick Enberg play-by-play, Jay Bilas analyst

■ THE SPREAD: Baylor by 11

■ RECORDS: Baylor 25-7, Sam Houston State 25-7

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: Baylor averages 77.4 points per game; Sam Houston State averages 79.9.

■ THE BUZZ: Both teams want a fast pace, so this one should be entertaining. The difference is that Baylor is much better defensively than Sam Houston State because of the presence of 6-10 F Ekpe Udoh. In its seven losses, Sam Houston State gave up 90.1 points per game -- almost 27 more than it allowed in its victories. Sam Houston State is a good passing team and takes care of the ball, but the Bearkats need to hit their 3-pointers to keep this close. The backcourt matchup should be a good one with Sam Houston State seniors Corey Allmond and Ashton Mitchell going against Baylor's Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn.

No. 7 Richmond vs. No. 10 Saint Mary's

■ SITE: Providence, R.I.

■ TIME: Noon

■ ANNOUNCERS: Verne Lundquist play-by-play, Bill Raftery analyst

■ THE SPREAD: Richmond by 1?

■ RECORDS: Richmond 26-8, Saint Mary's 26-5

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: Saint Mary's allows foes to shoot just 28.3 percent from 3-point range.

■ THE BUZZ: This one is all about Richmond's guards. Saint Mary's plays solid defense, but it hasn't seen a guard duo like the Spiders' Kevin Anderson and David Gonzalvez. They are good offensively and defensively. Richmond has four players who are proficient from 3-point range, so the Gaels' solid perimeter defense will get a workout. One thing to watch: Richmond generally gets hammered on the boards, so Saint Mary's C Omar Samhan should enjoy a big game. But for the Gaels to win, someone else needs to help out Samhan offensively. Saint Mary's shoots 41.2 percent from 3-point range.

MIDWEST REGIONAL

No. 8 UNLV vs. No. 9 Northern Iowa

■ SITE: Oklahoma City

■ TIME: 4:10 p.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Kevin Harlan play-by-play, Dan Bonner analyst

■ THE SPREAD: UNLV by 1

■ RECORDS: UNLV 25-8, Northern Iowa 28-4

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: Northern Iowa's opponents have shot just 40.3 percent from the field, but UNLV's defense has been even better, with opponents shooting only 39.8 percent.

■ THE BUZZ: Northern Iowa wants a game in the high 50s or low 60s. The Panthers prefer half-court, grind-it-out affairs. They allowed more than 68 points just twice this season and held 11 opponents to 50 or fewer and 25 to 60 or fewer. Northern Iowa has good size, which has to worry UNLV coach Lon Kruger, whose team is outrebounded by almost one per game. UNLV would prefer at least a moderate pace but isn't likely to get that; still, the Rebels are solid defensively, as well, so this isn't likely to be a thing of beauty.

No. 3 Georgetown vs. No. 14 Ohio

■ SITE: Providence, R.I.

■ TIME: 4:25 p.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Verne Lundquist play-by-play, Bill Raftery analyst

■ THE SPREAD: Georgetown by 13?

■ RECORDS: Georgetown 23-10, Ohio 21-14

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: Ohio shoots just 42.7 percent from the field.

■ THE BUZZ: Ohio won the MAC tourney as a No. 9 seed, so it's safe to say the Bobcats are a surprise NCAA entrant. While Ohio plays good defense, it has a tough time maintaining offensive consistency. G Armon Bassett, who began his career at Indiana, is the key guy for the Bobcats; he has to be hot or this could get ugly. Georgetown C Greg Monroe should feast on Ohio's frontcourt.

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Lehigh

■ SITE: Oklahoma City

■ TIME: 6:40 p.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Kevin Harlan play-by-play, Dan Bonner analyst

■ THE SPREAD: Kansas by 26

■ RECORDS: Kansas 32-2, Lehigh 22-10

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: Lehigh played no schools from the Big Six conferences this season and had the 309th-toughest schedule in the nation.

■ THE BUZZ: The last time Kansas played a Patriot League team in the NCAA tourney, it lost to 14th-seeded Bucknell in 2005. There's no danger of the Patriot League team pulling an upset this time. Lehigh freshman G C.J. McCollum had a big season (18.9 ppg), and it'll be interesting to see if he can get his shot consistently against the Jayhawks' guards.

No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 San Diego State

■ SITE: Providence, R.I.

■ TIME: 6:55 p.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Verne Lundquist play-by-play, Bill Raftery analyst

■ THE SPREAD: Tennessee by 3

■ RECORDS: Tennessee 25-8, San Diego State 25-8

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: San Diego State outrebounds foes by almost seven per game; Tennessee outrebounds foes by 0.7 per game.

■ THE BUZZ: Neither team is fluid offensively, and both win because of defense. Three-point shooting shouldn't be a factor (San Diego State hits just 32.2 percent, Tennessee just 31.3 percent), but rebounding could tip the scales in the Aztecs' favor. San Diego State has good size and pounds the boards, with freshman F Kawhi Leonard especially effective on the offensive glass. The Volunteers need to make sure their aggressive defense forces a bunch of turnovers against a shaky Aztecs backcourt. If San Diego State can limit Tennessee in transition, the Aztecs' chances for an upset increase greatly.

WEST REGIONAL

No. 7 BRIGHAM YOUNG vs. No. 10 Florida

■ SITE: Oklahoma City

■ TIME: 9:20 a.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Kevin Harlan play-by-play, Dan Bonner analyst

■ THE SPREAD: BYU by 4?

■ RECORDS: BYU 29-5, Florida 21-12

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: BYU shoots 41.9 percent from 3-point range; that's 10.7 percent better than the Gators.

■ THE BUZZ: BYU is an offense-minded group that's deadly from beyond the arc and from the line (where it shoots a nation-leading 78.7 percent). The Cougars lack athleticism, but they do have good size. Florida's best shot for the upset is to get the ball into the low post and have Vernon Macklin and/or Alex Tyus go to work; while BYU has size, it's big men aren't all that talented. The Gators have played solid perimeter defense this season, and that has to be a priority against the Cougars. BYU has more depth, and coach Dave Rose's bench could wear down Florida.

No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Murray State

■ SITE: San Jose, Calif.

■ TIME: 11:30 a.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Spero Dedes play-by-play, Bob Wenzel analyst

■ THE SPREAD: Vanderbilt by 3

■ RECORDS: Vanderbilt 24-8, Murray State 30-4

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: Murray State shoots 50.3 percent from the field; Vandy's opponents shoot just 41.1 percent from the field.

■ THE BUZZ: Murray State isn't the biggest team, but the Racers are athletic and physical and should give Vandy's big guys some problems. Murray is good from long range (38.8 percent from beyond the arc) and thrives in transition. Vandy is athletic and has some big-time shooters, but the Commodores' big guys don't always come to play. They'd better against the Racers, or Vandy will lose for the second time in three seasons to a No. 13 seed in the first round. Expect a game in the high 70s or low 80s, as both teams want to run.

No. 2 Kansas State vs. No. 15 North Texas

■ SITE: Oklahoma City

■ TIME: 11:50 a.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Kevin Harlan play-by-play, Dan Bonner analyst

■ THE SPREAD: Kansas State by 16

■ RECORDS: Kansas State 26-7, North Texas 24-8

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: North Texas commits 14.7 turnovers per game, and Kansas State forces 16.9 turnovers per game.

■ THE BUZZ: K-State's offense isn't always pretty, but the Wildcats' defensive effort is always there, which will be bad news for a North Texas team that is sloppy with the ball. The Mean Green are athletic, can put the ball in the basket and are excellent from the line, which means they could keep this close for a while -- assuming turnovers don't doom them early.

No. 5 Butler vs. No. 12 TEXAS-EL PASO

■ SITE: San Jose, Calif.

■ TIME: 2 p.m.

■ ANNOUNCERS: Spero Dedes play-by-play, Bob Wenzel analyst

■ THE SPREAD: Butler by 2?

■ RECORDS: Butler 28-4, Texas-El Paso 26-6

■ STAT THAT MATTERS: Both teams have four players averaging in double figures.

■ THE BUZZ: This is an interesting contrast in styles. UTEP is much better when it is able to force an up-tempo game; Butler doesn't mind if a game is in the low 60s. Butler has to be worried about UTEP's size; in Derrick Caracter and Arnett Moultrie, the Miners have some big guys who could do damage in the low post against the smallish Bulldogs. Watch Butler F Matt Howard, who has had all sorts of foul problems this season. Butler will have trouble beating UTEP unless Howard is on the floor. Conversely, Caracter has had foul problems, too, and given Butler's penchant for running guys off screens, Caracter needs to avoid silly fouls. Another thing to watch: Butler shoots almost 74 percent from the foul line, and UTEP is barely above 67 percent.

 

[Lumi]

WEST REGION BREAKDOWN

WEST REGION BREAKDOWN

WEST REGION BREAKDOWN

SPECIAL TO THE REVIEW-JOURNAL
FIRST-ROUND GAMES

Thursday at Oklahoma City

2. Kansas State vs. 15. North Texas

7. Brigham Young vs. 10. Florida

Thursday at San Jose, Calif.

4. Vanderbilt vs. 13. Murray State

5. Butler vs. 12. Texas-El Paso

Friday at Buffalo, N.Y.

1. Syracuse vs. 16. Vermont

8. Gonzaga vs. 9. Florida State

Friday at Milwaukee, Wis.

3. Pittsburgh vs. 14. Oakland

6. Xavier vs. 11. Minnesota

THE PARTICULARS

MOST OVERSEEDED: This is going to take awhile, as a case can be made that Florida, Minnesota and UTEP don't belong in the field. The Gators have three RPI top-50 wins, with just one since December. Florida comes in having lost four of five, with the only win over Southeastern Conference bottom-feeder Auburn. In addition, they are three games under .500 against teams in the RPI top 50. Minnesota appears to have played itself into the field with its performance in the Big Ten tournament, though the Gophers lost by 29 in the final. Minnesota has five RPI top-50 wins, with two coming in the league tournament. The Gophers also have four losses to teams below 100 in the RPI, including one loss to a team below 200. UTEP has just two RPI top-50 wins, both over Alabama-Birmingham. The Miners played a weak schedule, especially during the nonconference portion of their season.

MOST UNDERSEEDED: No one can complain about their seeding in this region, though Syracuse could complain about being shipped to the West.

BEST PLAYER: Syracuse forward Wesley Johnson. Orange coach Jim Boeheim raved about Johnson in the offseason, and Boeheim's prediction of stardom came true. Syracuse has a lot of good talent, but Johnson stands out. He is the Orange's leading scorer and rebounder and shoots better than 49 percent from the field, 39 percent from 3-point range and 78 percent from the line. He also is a good passer, shot-blocker and defender.

FIVE OTHERS TO WATCH: Gonzaga guard Matt Bouldin, Xavier guard Jordan Crawford, BYU guard Jimmer Fredette, Butler forward Gordon Hayward and Kansas State guard Jacob Pullen.

BEST PLAYER YOU'VE NEVER HEARD OF: Vermont forward Marqus Blakely. Blakely, a 6-foot-5-inch senior who was the America East player of the year, is the only player in the nation who leads his team in scoring, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks.

NUMBERS GAME: There are five conference tournament champions in the region: Vermont (America East), Butler (Horizon), Murray State (Ohio Valley), Oakland (Summit) and North Texas (Sun Belt); that's the fewest of any region. There are seven Big Six conference schools in the region, plus one from the Atlantic 10 and one from the Mountain West.

BEST FIRST-ROUND MATCHUPS: The 5-12 matchup between Butler and UTEP is an interesting contrast of styles. UTEP is all about forcing the tempo and trying to quicken the pace. Butler has no problem playing a game in the high 50s or low 60s. The 8-9 game between Gonzaga and Florida State also is intriguing. Gonzaga is another team that wants to run, and defense-minded FSU will want to slow it down. FSU has trouble scoring, but its size could pose problems for Gonzaga.

THE BUZZ: The last time Vermont made the tournament was in 2005, when the Catamounts shocked Syracuse in the first round as a No. 13 seed. ? Gonzaga is making its 12th consecutive NCAA appearance. The school had made one appearance, in 1995, before starting this run. ? Syracuse leads the nation in field-goal percentage, at 51.6. Gonzaga is sixth in that category, at 49.4. ? BYU leads the nation in free-throw percentage, at 78.7. The Cougars also are second in 3-point field-goal percentage, at 41.9.

 

[Lumi]

EAST REGION BREAKDOWN

EAST REGION BREAKDOWN

EAST REGION BREAKDOWN

SPECIAL TO THE REVIEW-JOURNAL
FIRST-ROUND GAMES

Thursday at New Orleans

1. Kentucky vs. 16. East Tennessee State

8. Texas vs. 9. Wake Forest

Thursday at San Jose, Calif.

3. New Mexico vs. 14. Montana

6. Marquette vs. 11. Washington

Friday at Jacksonville, Fla.

4. Wisconsin vs. 13. Wofford

5. Temple vs. 12. Cornell

Friday at Buffalo, N.Y.

2. West Virginia vs. 15. Morgan State

7. Clemson vs. 10 Missouri

THE PARTICULARS

MOST OVERSEEDED: Wisconsin and Marquette each seem a spot too high, at Nos. 4 and 6, respectively. Wisconsin did its best work at home, and Marquette -- 50th in the RPI -- had only four top-50 wins and played a weak nonconference schedule.

MOST UNDERSEEDED: Temple tied for the Atlantic 10 regular-season title, then won the league tourney. The Owls had seven RPI top-50 wins, including three away from home. They went 16-4 on the road. They haven't lost since Feb. 6. They lost by one at Georgetown, which is a No. 3 seed. And their RPI is 8th. Yet they're a No. 5 seed. They should be a No. 3, or a No. 4 at worst.

BEST PLAYER: Kentucky guard John Wall. The highly hyped freshman actually has surpassed the hype. He is jet-quick with the ball and always seems to make the key play when it's needed. Enjoy him this month because he will be in the NBA next season.

FIVE OTHERS TO WATCH: Wake Forest forward Al-Farouq Aminu, West Virginia forward Da'Sean Butler, Kentucky forward DeMarcus Cousins, Marquette forward Lazar Hayward and Texas forward Damion James.

BEST PLAYER YOU'VE NEVER HEARD OF: New Mexico swingman Darington Hobson. Hobson, a junior college transfer, was the missing piece the Lobos needed. He led them in scoring, rebounds and assists.

FIVE OTHERS TO WATCH: Temple forward Lavoy Allen, Wofford forward Noah Dahlman, Morgan State guard Reggie Holmes, Montana guard Anthony Johnson and Cornell forward Ryan Wittman.

NUMBERS GAME: There are eight conference tournament champions in the region -- East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Kentucky (SEC), Montana (Big Sky), Morgan State (MEAC), Temple (Atlantic 10), Washington (Pac-10), West Virginia (Big East) and Wofford (Southern). There also is Cornell, which won the Ivy's regular-season title.

BEST FIRST-ROUND MATCHUP: Games matching 8-9 seeds always are intriguing, and this one certainly qualifies. Texas was 17-0 at one point but faded badly down the stretch. Wake Forest comes in having lost five of six. Each has some top-level individual talent, but for whatever reason, cohesion and chemistry haven't been there.

THE BUZZ: This is the first NCAA appearance for New Mexico since 2005. Steve Alford is in his third season as Lobos coach. ? Clemson hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game since 1997, when it reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 4 seed in the Midwest. ? Wisconsin is making its ninth straight NCAA appearance under Bo Ryan. The school had made seven appearances in its history before Ryan's arrival.

 

[Lumi]

MIDWEST REGION BREAKDOWN

MIDWEST REGION BREAKDOWN

MIDWEST REGION BREAKDOWN

SPECIAL TO THE REVIEW-JOURNAL
FIRST-ROUND GAMES

Thursday at Oklahoma City

1. Kansas vs. 16. Lehigh

8. UNLV vs. 9. Northern Iowa

Thursday at Providence, R.I.

3. Georgetown vs. 14. Ohio U.

6. Tennessee vs. 11. San Diego State

Friday at Milwaukee

2. Ohio State vs. No. 15 UC Santa Barbara

7. Oklahoma State vs. 10. Georgia Tech

Friday at Spokane, Wash.

4. Maryland vs. 13. Houston

5. Michigan State vs. 12. New Mexico State

THE PARTICULARS

MOST OVERSEEDED: None, really, though it would not have been surprising to see New Mexico State at No. 13.

MOST UNDERSEEDED: Tennessee. The Volunteers beat Kansas and Kentucky, won 10 games away from home, have 25 wins against the nation's 19th-toughest schedule and own an RPI of 14th. They were seeded sixth, but should've been a spot higher.

BEST PLAYER: Ohio State swingman Evan Turner. Most observers feel the Player of the Year race came down to Turner and Kentucky freshman John Wall. Though Wall has more talent and should be a superstar in the NBA, an extremely strong case can be made for Turner, who has to do it all for the Buckeyes. He leads Ohio State in scoring (20.3 points per game) and shoots 54.3 percent from the field. He also leads the Buckeyes in rebounds and assists and is second in blocks and steals.

FIVE OTHERS TO WATCH: Kansas center Cole Aldrich, Oklahoma State guard James Anderson, Kansas guard Sherron Collins, Georgetown center Greg Monroe, Maryland guard Greivis Vasquez.

BEST PLAYER YOU'VE NEVER HEARD OF: Houston guard Aubrey Coleman. Houston underachieved, but don't blame Coleman. He leads the nation in scoring, and leads the Cougars in rebounds and steals and is second in assists. Coleman has good range but has can hit the 15-footer and get to the rim. He's a little quick on the trigger from 3-point range at times, but he makes up for that by getting to the line almost 10 times per game.

FIVE OTHERS TO WATCH: San Diego State forward Kawhi Leonard, Lehigh guard C.J. McCollum, Maryland freshman Jordan Williams, UNLV guard Tre'Von Willis, New Mexico State guard Jahmar Young.

NUMBERS GAME: There are nine conference tournament champions in the region -- Ohio State (Big Ten), Kansas (Big 12), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), Houston (Conference USA), Ohio (Mid-American), Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), San Diego State (Mountain West), Lehigh (Patriot) and New Mexico State (WAC). There are eight Big Six conference schools in the region, plus two from the Mountain West.

BEST FIRST-ROUND MATCHUPS: The 7-10 matchup of Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech is interesting on a couple of levels. First, it matches teams from the Big 12 and ACC. Second, both enjoyed some good wins but also some weird losses. Third, and most important, it should be a good game within a game. Oklahoma State is all about its guards, Georgia Tech is all about its big guys. The 4-13 Maryland-Houston matchup should be fun because both teams like to run. The 6-11 Tennessee-San Diego State game bears watching. There will be some good athletes hitting the boards and trying to get in transition.

THE BUZZ: Houston's Tom Penders is the seventh coach to take four teams to the NCAA Tournament. He also took Rhode Island, Texas and George Washington to the NCAAs. ? This is Kansas' fourth season in a row with at least 27 wins. ? This is UC Santa Barbara's fourth NCAA appearance and the 20th anniversary of the Gauchos' only NCAA win. ... Ohio U's best player is Indiana transfer Armon Bassett, who went to two NCAA Tournaments with the Hoosiers. ? Northern Iowa is making its second NCAA appearance in a row and its fifth in seven seasons. Before this run, UNI had made one appearance, in 1990. All five Panthers starters returned from last season. ? Michigan State reserve guard Isaiah Dahlman is the older brother of Wofford forward Noah Dahlman, the Southern Conference player of the year. Unfortunately for family members, Isaiah and the Spartans are playing Friday in Spokane and Noah and the Terriers are across the country on the same day, playing in Jacksonville.

 

[Lumi]

SOUTH REGION BREAKDOWN

SOUTH REGION BREAKDOWN

SOUTH REGION BREAKDOWN

SPECIAL TO THE REVIEW-JOURNAL
FIRST-ROUND GAMES

Thursday at Providence, R.I.

2. Villanova vs. 15. Robert Morris

7. Richmond vs. 10. Saint Mary's

Thursday at New Orleans

3. Baylor vs. 14. Sam Houston State

6. Notre Dame vs. 11. Old Dominion

Friday at Jacksonville, Fla.

1. Duke vs. 16. Arkansas-Pine Bluff/Winthrop play-in winner

8. California vs. 9. Louisville

Friday at Spokane, Wash.

4. Purdue vs. 13. Siena

5. Texas A&M vs. 12. Utah State

THE PARTICULARS

MOST OVERSEEDED: Notre Dame. The Irish closed with a flourish, but this is a team that still lost 11 games. The Irish, whose RPI is 49th, struggled away from home and have three losses to teams ranked lower than 100th in the RPI. Their hot close -- they have five top-50 wins, and four came in the final three weeks of the season -- got them a No. 6 seed. They should've been a spot or two lower.

MOST UNDERSEEDED: Richmond. The Spiders, whose RPI is 25th, also have five top-50 wins. They also enjoyed neutral-court wins over Florida and Mississippi State. They had no "bad" losses. Richmond was 12-7 away from home. They got a No. 7 seed, but should've been a No. 6.

BEST PLAYER: Villanova guard Scottie Reynolds. Reynolds was a national player of the year candidate until the Wildcats slumped down the stretch. No matter: Reynolds is a big-timer. He is quick, has good range and is fearless going to the basket.

FIVE OTHERS TO WATCH: Notre Dame forward Luke Harangody, California guard Jerome Randle, Louisville forward Samardo Samuels, Duke guard Jon Scheyer, Duke forward Kyle Singler.

BEST PLAYER YOU'VE NEVER HEARD OF: Richmond guard Kevin Anderson. Richmond has one of the nation's most productive backcourts, and Anderson is the major reason. He is the Spiders' leading scorer and is deadly from the line. He has good range, plays solid defense and also is a good passer.

FIVE OTHERS TO WATCH: Sam Houston State guard Corey Allmond, Siena forward Alex Franklin, Richmond guard David Gonzalvez, Old Dominion forward Gerald Lee, Saint Mary's center Omar Samhan.

NUMBERS GAME: There are eight conference tournament champions in the region -- Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC), Duke (ACC), Old Dominion (Colonial), Robert Morris (Northeast), Saint Mary's (West Coast), Sam Houston State (Southland), Siena (Metro Atlantic Athletic) and Winthrop (Big South).

BEST FIRST-ROUND MATCHUPS: The 7-10 matchup is a good one. Saint Mary's has center Omar Samhan, but Richmond has a big-time backcourt. The 4-13 and 5-12 matchups are good, too. Siena has won in the first round in each of the past two seasons, including as a 13 seed in 2008. The veteran-laden Saints meet a Purdue team still wobbling from the injury loss of Robbie Hummel. No. 5 seed Texas A&M is a defense-minded team, but that won't bother Utah State. Utah State has trouble with athletic teams that want to run, but that's not A&M. Utah State is tremendous from 3-point range (41.9 percent). If its shots are falling, so will A&M.

THE BUZZ: There are 347 teams in Division I and Winthrop is No. 337 in field-goal percentage, at 38.3 percent. They are last ? as in 347th ? in 3-point field-goal percentage at 25.5 percent. ? This is the 11th No. 1 seed for Duke, second-most all-time to North Carolina's 13. Kentucky is third with 10 and Kansas fourth with nine. ? This is Richmond's first appearance since 2004, when Jerry Wainwright was coach. The Spiders have made seven appearances and won six games. ? Siena's Ronald Moore leads the nation in assists at 7.8 per game. ? Cal's Jerome Randle is 130 of 139 from the line and second in the nation in free-throw percentage at 93.5. ? Sam Houston State's leading scorer is junior forward Gilberto Clavell, a junior college transfer who is a former member of the Puerto Rican National Team. .. Saint Mary's guard Mickey McConnell leads the nation in 3-point field-goal percentage at 51.1 (67 of 131). ? Texas A&M senior forward Bryan Davis has been called for four technical fouls, most in the nation. ? This is the 15th anniversary season of Old Dominion's last NCAA Tournament win. The 14th-seeded Monarchs, behind a huge game from Petey Sessoms, shocked No. 3 seed Villanova 89-81 in three overtimes. ? This is the second NCAA appearance in three seasons and just the sixth ever for Baylor.

 

[Lumi]

Take Vandy, N.Texas and Richmond in first round

Take Vandy, N.Texas and Richmond in first round

Take Vandy, N.Texas and
Richmond in first round

March 17, 2010

The most exciting four days of sports betting starts
Thursday.

While the Super Bowl is the biggest one-day
sporting event, the NCAA March Madness
tournament registers more betting action and better
opportunities as 48 games take place in just an 84-
hour period.

The NCAA selection committee did a great job
picking the field, but once again dropped the ball as
they made sure mid-majors like Butler, Richmond,
Northern Iowa, Temple and New Mexico were forced
to play other mid-majors instead of teams in power
conferences.

College basketball fans don't want to see first-round
games that pair middle-of-the-road, power-
conference finishers like Clemson versus Missouri
or Texas versus Wake Forest. What makes the
tournament so interesting and exciting is when the
mid-majors beat the powerhouses, such as last year
when Siena beat Ohio State.

The reason I've been so successful and put together
a 22-8 record in the 2009 NCAA Tournament is I
follow a model when handicapping. These are the
first three things I look for when I handicap a one-
and-done tournament game.

1. Which team can control the tempo of the game
and has a better point guard?

2. If the point spread is less than 10 points which team has the best free throw shooting percentage?

3. Which team is better in their half-court offense in
the last five minutes of the game?

With that in mind here are my strongest first round
games.

North Texas (plus-16)

vs. Kansas State

Thursday, 11:50 a.m.

Kansas State is the second best team in the Big 12
but comes off three consecutive draining games in
the conference tournament versus Kansas, Baylor
and Oklahoma State. Even excitable head coach
Frank Martin will have trouble getting his troops up
for Sun Belt entrant North Texas.

The Eagles played Texas A&M and Oklahoma State
tough on the road and have won their last seven
road games. Bigger and better rebounding teams
give North Texas problems, but that's Kansas State's
biggest weakness. Kansas State just wants to win the
game and move on. Getting double digits with a
highly motivated hot team is too much for me to
pass up.


Richmond (minus-1) vs. St Mary's

Thursday, noon

Saint Mary's looked unstoppable in the conference
tournament championship game, but they were
highly motivated to get into the Big Dance and beat
their rival, Gonzaga. They need to make a lot of 3-
pointers to win, and Richmond is an excellent
defensive team, having allowed opponents to make
just 39 percent of their shots.

Richmond is still under the radar to all but the
basketball junkies. The Spiders played one of the
most demanding out-of-conference schedules and
beat Missouri, Old Dominion, Mississippi State and
Florida. St. Mary's will get caught in the Spiders'
web.

Vanderbilt (minus-3)

vs. Murray State

Thursday, 11:30 a.m.

The Commodores still feel the sting of a first-round
loss in 2008 to Siena. They shoot 73 percent from
the free throw line. They played a demanding SEC
conference schedule and beat Missouri and Saint
Mary's out of conference.

Murray State played possibly the weakest schedule
of any tournament team. Their two most impressive
wins were against Morehead State and Morgan State.
Are you kidding me? Murray State is getting talked
up as a sleeper in the first round. I think Vanderbilt
sends the Racers packing by double digits.

 

[momoney]

Tough brackets bring out the best in Kansas!!

:toast:

 

[Lumi]

NCAA Tournament: What to watch for

NCAA Tournament: What to watch for

NCAA Tournament: What to watch for


It is that time of year.

The time when just about every office copy machine
is put to the test of duplicating bracket after bracket,
and when a nation sacrifices $3.8 billion in
productivity to brood over said bracket.

That's right, the NCAA Tournament is upon us once
again.

And in an effort to keep that brooding to a
minimum, here are a few tips to keep in mind when
filling out your bracket(s).

MIS-SEEDED

? Temple has the r?sum? of a team that should be
seeded better than fifth in the East Region: Atlantic
10 Tournament champs after splitting the regular-
season title, eighth-best RPI, seven RPI top-50 wins
and a 16-4 road record.

? Cornell is one of three schools seeded in the teens
with five or fewer losses. The Ivy League champs, at
27-4, gave overall No. 1 Kansas all it could handle
earlier this year and deserved something closer to a
10 seed. The Big Red plays Temple.

? California was said to be lucky to get in after
losing in the Pac-10 Tournament title game. Come
on, the Bears won the regular-season title. As for
that eighth seed, having UCLA athletic director Dan
Guerrero as the chair of the selection committee certainly couldn't have hurt.

? Notre Dame was thought to be a bubble team
heading into Selection Sunday. But the sixth seed
the Fightin' Irish got shows that wasn't the case in
the eyes of the selection committee. An eight or nine
seed would have been more appropriate.

? Florida's bubble didn't burst for the first time in
three years. But a 10 seed? It's tough to see the
Gators beating 11 seeds San Diego State and
Minnesota.

UPSET WATCH

The upset is what everyone searches for, whether it
be in watching the tournament or when filling out a
bracket. So, here are a few to look for in the first
round:

(13) Siena over (4) Purdue -- This pick isn't as much
about Siena as a sleeper as it is about how badly the
Boilermakers have looked since losing star forward
Robbie Hummel, who is done for the year with a
torn ACL.

(11) San Diego State over (6) Tennessee -- The
Aztecs are playing their best now after winning the
Mountain West Conference Tournament, and while
the Volunteers have quite a r?sum? they're also
quite vulnerable.


(12) New Mexico State over (5) Michigan State --
Your classic 5-12 matchup of teams from a power
and mid-major conference. The Aggies wouldn't be
in the Dance if they hadn't won the WAC
Tournament, but now that they're here ...

(13) Murray State over (4) Vanderbilt -- Murray State

was the country's first team to get to 30 wins
(Kansas and Kentucky soon followed) and the Racers
like to shoot the 3. Vanderbilt, perhaps even more
so than Purdue, is over-seeded as a No. 4.

DOUBLE DIGITS

Here are the most likely second-round matchups
between teams seeded 10th or higher in their
respective region:

South -- (12) Utah State vs. (13) Siena

Midwest -- (11) San Diego State vs. (13) Houston

West -- (11) Minnesota vs. (13) Murray State

DON'T DRINK THE KOOL-AID

The hot first-round picks will be to take (12) Cornell
over (5) Temple in the East Region and for West
Virginia, coming off its Big East Tournament win, to
go to the Final Four.

Don't follow the flock.

It's understandable why Cornell is going to get so
much attention, and the Big Red would be the pick
against any of the other five seeds. But the Owls are
too tough defensively. The worst part is this
matchup shouldn't even be that; as previously
noted, both teams are under-seeded.

When it comes to West Virginia, the Mountaineers
are the rugged sort of team that could give No. 1
seed Kentucky trouble. But first West Virginia must
get through a very good New Mexico team in the
Sweet 16, and even then John Wall and the Wildcats
are too good.

BRACKETBUSTERS

These are the teams that could drastically alter your
bracket by pulling not just one but multiple upsets
while knocking off an assumed Elite Eight or Final
Four team along the way:

? Gonzaga played its way out of a five or six seed
with two bad losses during the West Coast
Conference season. But the eighth-seeded Zags are
the sort of jump-shooting team that could give the
zone defense of No. 1-seed Syracuse fits in the
second round. From there, a Elite Eight appearance
in the West Region, at minimum, is easily
conceivable.


? BYU likely dropped a seed after losing in the
Mountain West semifinals, but the Cougars, led by
sharp shooter Jimmer Fredette, has the type of team
to make it to the Elite Eight, and possibly further, in
the West Region.

? As the third seed in the East Region, New Mexico
might not seem like a longshot to make the Final
Four. But how much of the country really knows
about the Lobos, especially since they did not win
their conference tournament.

? Georgia Tech has a legitimate chance to do a lot of
damage as a 10 seed. Ohio State might have won the
Big Ten and be a two seed, but the Buckeyes could
go down in the second round. The Yellow Jackets
then could conceivably upend third-seeded
Georgetown, leaving many people's Midwest bracket
in disarray.

PARITY

It is believed this year's tournament will feature the
most parity in recent years. To that end, don't go
with the chalk; don't pick all four No. 1 seeds to
make it to the Final Four. The Duke Blue Devils have
the easiest road to Indianapolis in the South Region,
but don't expect the Blue Devils to make it. Syracuse,
in the West Region, should be the first top seed to
get knocked off.