no-juice question...a must read for all gamblers

[Stag]

I noticed that Aces Gold has a no-juice offer on all NFL games each Friday.
So, I went through a database and looked at the results of games since 1993. EVERY year (except 1) DOGS have covered more games than favorites. Most years, underdogs go about 18-20 games over .500
And we all know that the general public LOVES taking favorites in the NFL no matter what is going on.
My point is this.....starting Week 1 of next season and throughout the remainder of my gambling life, I am just going to play EVERY DOG at even money for a bundle.
Does anybody know of any other sportsbook that offers us no-juice in the NFL?
Would love to shop around.
This is like stealing money.

 

[Sick Dog]

Look at taking them on the money also this should make you more money.

 

[phoenix566]

agree if you take this strategy that ML plays on all will yield greater profit. you definately need to stick to the plan and have a large enough bankroll to withstand a potential drought. If memory serves me correct, the favs were covering at an unbelievable clip in the beginning of this season.

it warms me inside when i see someone 'discover' the true value in capping the NFL. it seems so obvious yet it will always amaze me more money will Always back favorites. guess that's one of many reasons there will always be sportsbooks.

 

[ESQAJM]

Stag: The concept seems workable. Although I would guess that sometime during the season Aces Gold would discover what you are doing and step in to stop it in some way.

 

[spanky2]

Phoenix,good points. I have said a bunch of times here this year,people have to look at and bet more on 'dogs'but human nature draws'Joe Public to the 'chalk'.
I love when I get laughed at as someone will give me shit for playing Under in the Raider game because 'EVERYONE is playing the over'.Same thing for taking Bills tomorrow.These guys make me laugh.They figure if you don't bet 'chalk',you don't know what your doig(HA).
Doggie,Doggie is one of my lines I was using for a while,but all the 'chalkers'got really pissed at me.
Good luck...Spanky...tick,tick,tick , keep that clock running as fast as it can...

 

[Stag]

ESQ........that was exactly what i was thinking....How would they survive? They would probably change the lines a half-point or a full-point lower for the favorites. Let me know if there are other sportsbooks out there that do this. Also, has anybody had any expereice with Aces Gold in the past on no-juice Fridays?
Dogs have been kickin-butt again this year and should continue to do so in the future because of the public's infatuation/love with favorites.

 

[phoenix566]

spanky,

we may not agree in our communication style

but we do seem to be similar when handicapping the NFL. the true value lies in the dogs as it does in the under plays. I don't play many totals but when I play them straight it is most likely an under. For some reason though I like to do 3 team 10 point teasers with only overs as psychologically I like the fact that the play can be won well before the game is over.

by the way, here are some of the SD/OAK recent matchups:

11/18/2001 SD 24 OAK 34
10/29/2000 OAK 15 SD 13
9/3/2000 SD 6 OAK 9
12/26/1999 OAK 20 SD 23
11/14/1999 SD 9 OAK 28
12/20/1998 OAK 17 SD 10
10/11/1998 SD 6 OAK 7
11/16/1997 OAK 38 SD 13
10/5/1997 SD 25 OAK 10
10/21/1996 OAK 23 SD 14

1 of 10 went over todays total.......

by the way I am with you on the Buffalosers tomorrow as well.

good luck my friend who is challenged for words sometimes

 

[MadJack]

stag, gameday does it too.

 

[Stag]

MadJack....thanks for the info!

 

[spanky2]

Phoenix, thanks for the input..
Yes, I do love to verbally 'throw down the glove',but I do it in jest usually.
Good luck and thanks again for the info.It does ( like many things,have it's logic to it). Spankage...

 

[Houston]

Stag -

Why wait until the beginning of next season? Why not start next week? Seems like if the favorites were hitting earlier in the season the dogs might still might be due. Or have they caught up?

Anyway, thanks for the hockey picks...I follow em everyday.

 

[Stag]

Houston....
You are right......I just want to save up so I can make larger plays for next year. Maybe I will sign up now and do smaller plays. You really need a nice bankroll do do this.

 

[bej0101]

thanks for the dog idea with the no juice it sounds like a no brainer if you stick to the system..however in buffalo's game sunday they will get creamed because they are horrible..don't let last weeks game influence you as carolina is just as bad..i see ne by an easy 14..best of luck in whatever you decide...

 

[Skinar]

I really like this idea, it has a sound basis in long history in the NFL. It would have to be better than the beating I have taken in the NFL the past two years. Thanks for the info Stag.

It would take a hell of a bankroll. Hell, what am I talking about. Even if I only played the games for $10 each I'd still be a TON ahead of where I am.

 

[Stag]

Skin.......
I'm going to play each game for $500.....That's about a 7 grand handle per week....GameDay also has no-juice Friday's, so I can shop around.
My results went back to 1993....I got them from one of the links MadJack had up (Quantsports ATS Database) It is now defunct though for some reason.
Does anybody know of a database where I can check how underdogs have performed before 1993? I would love to look at that too. I think dogs ere like 80 games ove .500 since 1993. Imagine that with NO JUICE!!

Stag

 

[Stag]

Dogs this year (2001) are 93-85 (there have been 9 pushes)
8 games over .500 at no juice...not bad
Stag

 

[count zero]

Stag -- your information is faulty. Dogs have had many down years:

Year    W-L 

1983  115- 98 
1984  111-108   
1985  100-114   
1986  117-100  
1987   89- 72  
1988  111-103  
1989  113-103  
1990   99-114  
1991  106-110  
1992  110-107  
1993  118- 97  
1994  114- 96  
1995  121-108  
1996  122-110  
1997  121-100  
1998  107-118  
1999  126-106 
2000  128-111  
2001   92- 85  

Tot  2120-1960   52.0% 

H 690-615
R 1430-1345

Another reason why your plan won't work is that Aces Gold is a sharp shop; you'll systematically get a half-point less on many dogs, which will reduce your percentage below the above. And finally, the huge balance needed to play as you plan to (the swings will be great) combined with the relatively tiny edge you'd enjoy (about 1%) would make you a welcome customer at Aces Gold -- they'd earn more off the float than you'd win.

Not saying you shouldn't play at AG -- it's the best book out there. Also not saying you shouldn't play mostly dogs -- the 52% long term speaks for itself. But betting all the dogs won't work.

 

[Skinar]

Here's what I found for the following years:

YEAR FAV DOG T NET
1990 118 - 101 - 5 -17
1991 113 - 105 - 4 -8
1992 111 - 111 - 1 0
1993 97 - 120 - 7 +23
1994 99 - 117 - 8 +18
1995 108 - 126 - 6 +18
1996 115 - 123 - 2 +8
1997 103 - 124 -10 +21
1998 121 - 107 -11 -14
1999 106 - 129 -11 +23

TOT 1091 -1163 -65 +72

In almost every year there was a week in which the favorites went at least 10-4. In 1998 the season began 27-14-1 in the first three weeks, a loss of 13 units, effectively wiping out a $7K bankroll at $500 per play. It should also be noted the number of ties which constitute nearly 3% of all plays. This number is subject to a lot of variance depending upon the lines.

What I find most interesting is the correlation between the number of dogs that are covering and the advent of internet sports wagering. It seems that as more and more players get on the internet, the more the lines are skewed towards the favorites.

This would definitely take a lot of guts since almost every year I looked at had at least one extremely bad losing streak for the DOGs. And then of course there is 1998 which ended up -14 for the dogs. Based on what I found, you would need a bankroll equal to approximately 30 times your unit bet in order to ride out the bad streaks that occur. So, if you're going to play nickels, you better plan on having $15K ready just in case.

 

[Skinar]

Looks like Count Zero and I were going through the same process at the same time. It's interesting how our numbers vary, but in general we found the same results in the same years. Again, those ties play a huge part in the overall outcome of the theory.

 

[Skinar]

Another thing that occurs to me is if you're playing on a regular 11/10 line, AND you're playing favorites, then you are really swimming upstream. Since you only have a 48% pool from which to select you would have to pick 56.7% winners out of the available pool in order to break even. Interesting.