One more thing - I loved your friend's line "Math is natural, but sports handicapping is lots like economics, which is social. "
It's a common thing around here to say "let's beat the man" or "let's beat the book" but you really have to look at a place like this and think, "I have to beat these fellow bettors." Really, when I take the Panthers this week, I'm betting against the guy here who likes the Steelers, and the book is just taking a fee for facilitating our wager.
It's not the friendliest outlook to have, but really how I think about it.
And like CP said, the stock market (as an example of economics) goes similarly. The tech boom and bust was not due to awesome performance followed by poor performance of tech companies, but rather the entire world's love affair and eventual falling out with those tech companies.
