Note: I posted this late on Saturday night. Just in case the page isn't updated, I want to make certain this gets out in plenty of time. Good luck:
NFL WEEK 6: This looks like the best slate of NFL games yet. I expect several dogs to bark this week.
WASHINGTON +3 vs. TAMPA BAY
Comments: Redskins have no problem scoring points -- exceeding 20+ in each of their four previous games. Assuming they can generate any offense at all, I predict they will keep this game close enough to where getting the 3 points could be a factor. Major factors here are -- Bucs injuries on offense and a short week for Bucs coming off a totally exhausting MNF game.
Problem with the Bucs is their lack of a running game -- averaging just 3.1 yards per carry (to Washington's 4.2). As a rule, I prefer to bet on teams that can run versus teams that can't. Bucs' RB Alstott is out this week, which puts even more pressure on the Bucs passing game. There's also some bad news for the other back, RB Pittman, who was charged with a felony from an off-season incident (possible distraction?). WR Johnson is also listed as questionable. The other WR Jurevicious probably will not play. That means the Buc's offense could have some serious problems this week. AND THEY ARE LAYING POINTS ON THE ROAD!
Washington has been having some problems of their own with false starts this season (7 last week!). I think Washington will spend extra time this week getting the snap count right which will translate into improved numbers this week. This might not sound like a significant factor, but I've noticed that teams which play very sloppy in one week tend to come back the next week with a more crisp effort. Certainly, there will be no "let down" possibility for the Redskins this week against the Super Bowl champions. Tampa is learning that every opponent takes this game seriously.
Tampa must also worry about a "hangover effect," after the fourth quarter meltdown last week. Most teams don't recover so quickly from a close, hard fought loss. This problem is made worse by Bucs having to go on the road on a short week after a Monday night game. The defense looked beat up last week -- not sure if five days is quite enough time to recover.
The Bucs are an odds favorite here because of the high regard most bettors have for the defense. But Tampa has been blessed with creampuff offensive opposition for most of the season. Now, they face a hungry Redskins team on the road that is moving the ball through the air. I expect a very close game that comes down to a fourth quarter field goal. That's makes me want to jump on the Redskins +3 (even). ALL FIVE WASHINGTON GAMES HAVE BEEN DECIDED BY 3 POINTS OR LESS!
ADDITIONAL PLAYS:
2Q: WASHINGTON +.5 (-115)
The quarter angle applies here, where we are talking the half point in a game where the dog is capable of winning outright.
CLEVELAND -3 vs. OAKLAND
Comments: I hate betting on favorites, I especially dislike being with the public on a game. But I find the Oakland Faker's 0-9 run ATS (counting pre-season) to be compelling evidence enough to fade this joke of a team. Raiders have given up 20+ points in EVERY game this season and now face a team with a whole new outlook on the season coming off of a huge win at Pittsburgh last week.
Oaklands' only two victories were flukes (last second wins at home versus Cincy and San Diego). In their three road games, they've lost by 3, 5, and 21. What was really revealing was the Raiders' inability to get into the end zone last week versus a very weak team. Now, they face a team totally reborn in a hostile stadium. Big home edge to Browns for the home field.
The bottom line is -- these are two teams going in totally different directions. The linesmakers are telling us these two teams are equal in talent, when everything seems to indicate otherwise. Browns will be especially hungry in this game since they lost their previous home game to rival Cincinnati.
I happy to lay -3 points with a hot team playing with emotional and pride versus what is without a doubt the worst coached team in the NFL.
ADDITIONAL PLAYS:
GAME TOTAL UNDER 44
These Raiders don't score many points. Except for one breakout game versus awful San Diego, Oakland has been very average to poor offensively. Apart from the letdown in Week 2 versus Baltimore when RB Lewis ran wild, the Browns defense has kept all other opponents under 21 points.
INDIANAPOLIS / CAROLINA: 2Q: CAROLINA +1.5
Comments: I have only one play in this game -- Carolina getting the generous +1.5 points in the second quarter. Colts defense might be worn down after last week's slugfest in Tampa. Panthers have shown their defense is for real -- allowing just 23, 9, 3, and 13 points in four games. I think it's asking too much for a team to cover in a quarter, especially coming off a big win and now playing another very solid defense. This play is made even stronger by the fact that we get not just a half-point, but +1.5 (which means a 7-6 score in the 2Q gives us the win)
CHICAGO +5.5 vs. NEW ORLEANS
Comments: This is a ridiculous line. I can see the Saints favored by -3 or -3.5 but for New Orleans to give any opponent +5.5 points is insane. Saints defense is riddled with injuries (seven starters out from first of the season) and just loss another CB to a suspension due to substance abuse.
Saints are 1-4 SU and in their only win, they were trailing at halftime to the Texans at home. In all four losses, New Orleans never led, which is the sign of a team giving up hope. The home field might actually be a liability for the Saints, which will likely boo the Saints if they start slowly. Bears are used to the boos at home, but on the road get a reprieve from the abuse. Nothing fancy about this play -- in a game with two bad teams, I'll take the points.
ADDITIONAL PLAYS:
2Q: CHICAGO +1.5
Saints haven't outscored any opponent this year in the first half. What makes anyone think they can cover -1.5 in a single quarter?
HOUSTON +9.5 (buy the half point to +10) vs. TENNESSEE
Comments: I think this is a much stronger play at +10, so I recommend laying the -120 to pick up the half point (Note: this line opened at 10, but is now down to 9.5 in most places).
Texans are expected to be at full strength (no major injuries), while the Titans are having some problems. Latest is CB Rolle (Mr. Holdout) -- out for the Titans this week.
Key in this game could be the Texans stopping the Titans running game. Tennessee averages a disgraceful 2.6 yards per carry. QB McNair is as tough as they come, but he can't win every game by throwing for 400 yards.
Although the bye week is normally a neutral handicapping factor, in this case I think it really helps the Texans. They get extra time to shed the excitement of the previous win and to focus their effort on the Tennessee game. Meanwhile, Titans have come off two very tough road games at Pittsburgh and New England -- where they gave up huge chunks of yardage to opponents.
The bottom line is -- this number is outdated. Texans are not quite in the "expansion" class anymore, yet they are still treated to double digit pointspreads on the road and being instilled as a dog at home. Texans gets some added motivation by this being a possible breakout game -- if they win, they will have the lead in the division over Tennessee.
ADDITIONAL PLAYS:
2Q: HOUSTON +3.5
Give me any NFL team and +3.5 points in a quarter. Texans have only been outscored in the 2Q in one of their four games.
NY JETS +2.5 vs. BUFFALO
Comments: I love this play as the best bet of the week. It has numerous angles pointing to the Jets. Let's start with division home dogs. These are usually solid bets, although they have not performed well this season. I expect that to change as the season progresses and here's the perfect game where the home team pulls off an upset.
Jets have had two full weeks to prepare for this home division rival. The "bye" week is normally a neutral factor. But if any team needed a bye last week, it was the Jets. This team will look at this game as a second-chance to get back to respectability and the entire focus will be on wining this game. No looking ahead. No hangover from last week. This is the game for the Jets. Period.
Meanwhile, Buffalo hasn't looked impressive in three weeks. After all the hoopla over this phony team in Week 2 (when the Bills were 2-0), Buffalo has now lost three straight ATS. Worse, the offense has sputtered. The main problem is -- Buffalo has no running game. Teams that can't run the ball historically perform badly as road favorites.
What's really puzzling is that this line isn't a bit higher. I expected a number at least +3 and perhaps as high as +4. I suspect that one of two things are happening. Either the Bills ATS loss to Cincinnati last week (an overtime non-cover win) deflated public confidence in the Bills. Or, for those of you who believe that sportsbooks "take stands" on certain games -- the number suggests they are baiting you to take the Bills. How many times will you hear this week that the Bills are laying "only 2.5?"
Of course, I'd dearly love to be getting +3 points. But I'll take +2.5 in a game I seriously think the Jets will win.
SIDE NOTE: The baseball series might actually help the Jets in preparation this week since the NY press will largely be focused on the baseball playoffs. That leaves the Jets with more time to prepare and less nagging questions to worry about.
NFL WEEK 6: This looks like the best slate of NFL games yet. I expect several dogs to bark this week.
WASHINGTON +3 vs. TAMPA BAY
Comments: Redskins have no problem scoring points -- exceeding 20+ in each of their four previous games. Assuming they can generate any offense at all, I predict they will keep this game close enough to where getting the 3 points could be a factor. Major factors here are -- Bucs injuries on offense and a short week for Bucs coming off a totally exhausting MNF game.
Problem with the Bucs is their lack of a running game -- averaging just 3.1 yards per carry (to Washington's 4.2). As a rule, I prefer to bet on teams that can run versus teams that can't. Bucs' RB Alstott is out this week, which puts even more pressure on the Bucs passing game. There's also some bad news for the other back, RB Pittman, who was charged with a felony from an off-season incident (possible distraction?). WR Johnson is also listed as questionable. The other WR Jurevicious probably will not play. That means the Buc's offense could have some serious problems this week. AND THEY ARE LAYING POINTS ON THE ROAD!
Washington has been having some problems of their own with false starts this season (7 last week!). I think Washington will spend extra time this week getting the snap count right which will translate into improved numbers this week. This might not sound like a significant factor, but I've noticed that teams which play very sloppy in one week tend to come back the next week with a more crisp effort. Certainly, there will be no "let down" possibility for the Redskins this week against the Super Bowl champions. Tampa is learning that every opponent takes this game seriously.
Tampa must also worry about a "hangover effect," after the fourth quarter meltdown last week. Most teams don't recover so quickly from a close, hard fought loss. This problem is made worse by Bucs having to go on the road on a short week after a Monday night game. The defense looked beat up last week -- not sure if five days is quite enough time to recover.
The Bucs are an odds favorite here because of the high regard most bettors have for the defense. But Tampa has been blessed with creampuff offensive opposition for most of the season. Now, they face a hungry Redskins team on the road that is moving the ball through the air. I expect a very close game that comes down to a fourth quarter field goal. That's makes me want to jump on the Redskins +3 (even). ALL FIVE WASHINGTON GAMES HAVE BEEN DECIDED BY 3 POINTS OR LESS!
ADDITIONAL PLAYS:
2Q: WASHINGTON +.5 (-115)
The quarter angle applies here, where we are talking the half point in a game where the dog is capable of winning outright.
CLEVELAND -3 vs. OAKLAND
Comments: I hate betting on favorites, I especially dislike being with the public on a game. But I find the Oakland Faker's 0-9 run ATS (counting pre-season) to be compelling evidence enough to fade this joke of a team. Raiders have given up 20+ points in EVERY game this season and now face a team with a whole new outlook on the season coming off of a huge win at Pittsburgh last week.
Oaklands' only two victories were flukes (last second wins at home versus Cincy and San Diego). In their three road games, they've lost by 3, 5, and 21. What was really revealing was the Raiders' inability to get into the end zone last week versus a very weak team. Now, they face a team totally reborn in a hostile stadium. Big home edge to Browns for the home field.
The bottom line is -- these are two teams going in totally different directions. The linesmakers are telling us these two teams are equal in talent, when everything seems to indicate otherwise. Browns will be especially hungry in this game since they lost their previous home game to rival Cincinnati.
I happy to lay -3 points with a hot team playing with emotional and pride versus what is without a doubt the worst coached team in the NFL.
ADDITIONAL PLAYS:
GAME TOTAL UNDER 44
These Raiders don't score many points. Except for one breakout game versus awful San Diego, Oakland has been very average to poor offensively. Apart from the letdown in Week 2 versus Baltimore when RB Lewis ran wild, the Browns defense has kept all other opponents under 21 points.
INDIANAPOLIS / CAROLINA: 2Q: CAROLINA +1.5
Comments: I have only one play in this game -- Carolina getting the generous +1.5 points in the second quarter. Colts defense might be worn down after last week's slugfest in Tampa. Panthers have shown their defense is for real -- allowing just 23, 9, 3, and 13 points in four games. I think it's asking too much for a team to cover in a quarter, especially coming off a big win and now playing another very solid defense. This play is made even stronger by the fact that we get not just a half-point, but +1.5 (which means a 7-6 score in the 2Q gives us the win)
CHICAGO +5.5 vs. NEW ORLEANS
Comments: This is a ridiculous line. I can see the Saints favored by -3 or -3.5 but for New Orleans to give any opponent +5.5 points is insane. Saints defense is riddled with injuries (seven starters out from first of the season) and just loss another CB to a suspension due to substance abuse.
Saints are 1-4 SU and in their only win, they were trailing at halftime to the Texans at home. In all four losses, New Orleans never led, which is the sign of a team giving up hope. The home field might actually be a liability for the Saints, which will likely boo the Saints if they start slowly. Bears are used to the boos at home, but on the road get a reprieve from the abuse. Nothing fancy about this play -- in a game with two bad teams, I'll take the points.
ADDITIONAL PLAYS:
2Q: CHICAGO +1.5
Saints haven't outscored any opponent this year in the first half. What makes anyone think they can cover -1.5 in a single quarter?
HOUSTON +9.5 (buy the half point to +10) vs. TENNESSEE
Comments: I think this is a much stronger play at +10, so I recommend laying the -120 to pick up the half point (Note: this line opened at 10, but is now down to 9.5 in most places).
Texans are expected to be at full strength (no major injuries), while the Titans are having some problems. Latest is CB Rolle (Mr. Holdout) -- out for the Titans this week.
Key in this game could be the Texans stopping the Titans running game. Tennessee averages a disgraceful 2.6 yards per carry. QB McNair is as tough as they come, but he can't win every game by throwing for 400 yards.
Although the bye week is normally a neutral handicapping factor, in this case I think it really helps the Texans. They get extra time to shed the excitement of the previous win and to focus their effort on the Tennessee game. Meanwhile, Titans have come off two very tough road games at Pittsburgh and New England -- where they gave up huge chunks of yardage to opponents.
The bottom line is -- this number is outdated. Texans are not quite in the "expansion" class anymore, yet they are still treated to double digit pointspreads on the road and being instilled as a dog at home. Texans gets some added motivation by this being a possible breakout game -- if they win, they will have the lead in the division over Tennessee.
ADDITIONAL PLAYS:
2Q: HOUSTON +3.5
Give me any NFL team and +3.5 points in a quarter. Texans have only been outscored in the 2Q in one of their four games.
NY JETS +2.5 vs. BUFFALO
Comments: I love this play as the best bet of the week. It has numerous angles pointing to the Jets. Let's start with division home dogs. These are usually solid bets, although they have not performed well this season. I expect that to change as the season progresses and here's the perfect game where the home team pulls off an upset.
Jets have had two full weeks to prepare for this home division rival. The "bye" week is normally a neutral factor. But if any team needed a bye last week, it was the Jets. This team will look at this game as a second-chance to get back to respectability and the entire focus will be on wining this game. No looking ahead. No hangover from last week. This is the game for the Jets. Period.
Meanwhile, Buffalo hasn't looked impressive in three weeks. After all the hoopla over this phony team in Week 2 (when the Bills were 2-0), Buffalo has now lost three straight ATS. Worse, the offense has sputtered. The main problem is -- Buffalo has no running game. Teams that can't run the ball historically perform badly as road favorites.
What's really puzzling is that this line isn't a bit higher. I expected a number at least +3 and perhaps as high as +4. I suspect that one of two things are happening. Either the Bills ATS loss to Cincinnati last week (an overtime non-cover win) deflated public confidence in the Bills. Or, for those of you who believe that sportsbooks "take stands" on certain games -- the number suggests they are baiting you to take the Bills. How many times will you hear this week that the Bills are laying "only 2.5?"
Of course, I'd dearly love to be getting +3 points. But I'll take +2.5 in a game I seriously think the Jets will win.
SIDE NOTE: The baseball series might actually help the Jets in preparation this week since the NY press will largely be focused on the baseball playoffs. That leaves the Jets with more time to prepare and less nagging questions to worry about.
