NYRaider and The Gibber1 both had it right. So looking at this week I see the hot KC Chiefs playing the lowly NY Jets at NY and currently only a 3 point favorite. I have not run the numbers yet but I can guess that they will be overwhelminly in KC's favor. KC is playing an undefeated San Diego next week. So by the methods we have been discussing this would be a play for the Jets or a no play. If I am reading everything right. Of course the numbers say KC but .......... Ok so from now on will be adding another step or two after I run the numbers. Not saying anything is 100% but it helps to look at a game you lost and see what someone who won it was thinking.
Nolan Dalla Question
- Thread starter THE KOD
- Start date
Nolan Dalla said:
NOLAN
1. Please explain what you mean by there is no correlation between the flow of money either way and the ps winners ?
2. I have to believe in my heart that when there is a line movement either way ( especially significant ) it is at that time the best opportunity to pick the winner. Of everything else we have if we can figure out if its the sharp money, then we win right? or at least getting on the sharp money gives us the best damn opportunity. Maybe I am wrong . Its a question.
Thanks
Scott-Atlanta
now you are catching on.. at least to they way i cap..
i would be on the Jets huge this week, but with an untested QB at the helm, who knows??... with pennington getting his first start. i am laying off this one..
San Diego is probably do for a let down.. but they will stuff the run and i dont trust Griese..
the only game that sticks out to me this week are a couple of totals like the over GB/Bears
i might not even bet this week.. ???:shrug:
lines look tight as a drum.
acehistr8 said:
What we really need to do is not have it be two halfs especially 50 % on one side and 50% on the other.
What we need is 75% on one side and 25% on the other. And the 75% is the winning play. If we cant do that we are wasting our time in here and we minds well flip a friggin coin and call that heads and tail shit.
Sorry but I get riled.
We got to get better otherwise its too hard work all the time.
It is a journey of logic and instinct. We have to stay on the road.
Scott-Atlanta
thats not true,
heres a confesion (might get hell for this)
but when i see everyone here on the same game..
i usually bet the opposite..
some examples off the top of my head
the 2nd MNF game i took the Eagles when most were on da skins
and two weeks ago most liked Tenn to beat up on Florida
did this alot in college hoops and it worked great..
i am not saying that fading is the only reasoning for picking that game.. but sometimes its a big part of it..
ps..
i am not trying to sound like a know it all ass hole.. i am simply telling how i pick my games..
i am aware that no matter what the system, by year end i will be lucky to have 50% winning percentage...
good luck
thunderdoll said:
I had it as a no play as well.
And by my numbers, sure, it was Denver all the way. But it was a no-play because experience tells me these are the kinds of plays that blow up in your face. Taking 8-point road favorites will send you to the poor house in a hurry. I could come up with no logical reason why Baltimore should cover (much less win outright!), but I've seen it all way too many times to ignore what I KNOW happens time and time again.
If you go solely (or mostly) by just numbers and statistics, you cannot win (in my opinion). You can win some games, but I don't think you can win overall. The statistics only tell part of the story, and if you stick with numbers only you will pick Favorite, Favorite, Favorite....and down you go. Of COURSE the favorite looks better by the numbers...they almost always do. But we also know more dogs than favorites cover the spread. So something is missing in the numbers.
Rely less on numbers, and more on situations.
Look at games dog-first. Read the line as "Baltimore +8", not "Denver -8"...analyze the dog side first always. And make it the exception, not the rule, to lay more than a FG in ANY game.
Finally...while it's already been stated before....just because someone had Baltimore last night does not mean they saw it clearly and had it right, no question. Nor should a Denver bettor feel that they were absolutely on the wrong side and out to lunch. We all harp on the times we lose games we feel we should have won....but we also win a heck of a lot of games for the wrong reasons. You handicap a game, you win that game, but you win for reasons that had NOTHING to do with why you picked that game. Nobody remembers the "bad" wins though.
TheShrimp said:
this is good stuff. Now we are getting somewhere.
Any more comments ? we need to delve deeper into this to win. The answers are in here and we have the most intelligent ppl on the internet as far as sports handicapping. Our duty is to to carry on madjacks legacy and make him proud.
Getting Olympic on board says alot. About a month ago madjack asked us not to mention them bastids anymore because they dont support us. Next thing you know Jack has them signed on.
Good going madjack! not sure how you did it but its a great move as they are a exc book.
Sometimes I am embarressed at what goes on in here as far as the verbal sparring goes. But that is another reason why people come in here. Its entertainment.
Its fun to read when fletcher flys off the handle and goes into one of his famous tirades. If you have kept up with him you know he just has to vent sometimes and the littlest thing can get him going.
At least the man is passionate about what he does . If he didnt give a sh... he wouldnt even post in here. If he didnt care he wouldnt be worth reading and following. But he does care and thats worth paying for right there.
If you are going to use a service fletcher is someone you have to have high on the list. He does the work and if you dont want to put the time in yourself use fletcher and let him go through all the hoops to pick winners.
Comments ?
Scott-Atlanta
theGibber1 said:
what you are doing is going against the public plays and its a good strategy. The sad part is that so many of us make up the public. That says even more that you cant just come in here and coattail plays and expect to win. Its nuts.
If fading is a big part of it, then the biggest part seems to be finding out who the public is on because thats who the books are trying to screw. They know the wiser guys will be on the right play as its hard as hell to fool them.
What conclusions can we draw ?
Where do we go from here ?
Good info Gibber
Scott-Atlanta
not for every game.. just certain ones
like yesterday i think most liked the Ravens.. but i didnt change my play..
i dont really consider this place the public.. lot of smart cookies in here..
i do like when the real public pushes a line... we got some extra value yesterday when the money went to the Broncs.. course we didnt need it.
MY 2pennies worth.....
I am new to forums and started reading because I needed 5 teams for my football contest. I don't gamble because it's not legal here in Hawaii. But as to the discussion about line movement....
When St Lous played TB on mnf if I remember right, the line was at St Louis -3 then it went to -1'. It stayed there the whole week. People in all the forums were wondering why the line didn't move during the week, with the public jumping on St Louis. Then just before game time, the line jumped back to -3 or -4. Of course, St. Louis got smashed.
Then mnf this week, the whole world was on denver and the line pretty much stayed at -7, -7'. Then right before game time, there went the line to- 8, -9, -10. Of course, Denver got pounded.
I love football and only became "educated" in line movements and the likes, from reading the forums, but when I saw the same thing happen, I said, with hesitaion, Denver is going to lose this game outrignt. No teaser is going to help Denver. And I was right. I don't like to use the term "fixed", but alot of things just didn't go Denvers way..officiating for one..but Denver just played lousy.
I know it's only two situations, but if I see it happening again, Kinda makes me wonder..........does somebody know something we don't knnow?
hwnhrt
I am new to forums and started reading because I needed 5 teams for my football contest. I don't gamble because it's not legal here in Hawaii. But as to the discussion about line movement....
When St Lous played TB on mnf if I remember right, the line was at St Louis -3 then it went to -1'. It stayed there the whole week. People in all the forums were wondering why the line didn't move during the week, with the public jumping on St Louis. Then just before game time, the line jumped back to -3 or -4. Of course, St. Louis got smashed.
Then mnf this week, the whole world was on denver and the line pretty much stayed at -7, -7'. Then right before game time, there went the line to- 8, -9, -10. Of course, Denver got pounded.
I love football and only became "educated" in line movements and the likes, from reading the forums, but when I saw the same thing happen, I said, with hesitaion, Denver is going to lose this game outrignt. No teaser is going to help Denver. And I was right. I don't like to use the term "fixed", but alot of things just didn't go Denvers way..officiating for one..but Denver just played lousy.
I know it's only two situations, but if I see it happening again, Kinda makes me wonder..........does somebody know something we don't knnow?
hwnhrt
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hwnhrt said:
Well its like the famous quote from last year when someone said..
I dont care if the games are fixed. I will just try to bet on the fixed side to win.
We are hopeless.
Good points .
Scott-Atlanta
Scott:
I need to make one correction about something I posted earlier that could be misinterpreted. I did not mean to imply that it is not wise to follow line moves and watch the direction they go -- especially across key numbers. I have also had conversations with some NBA cappers who have indentified patterns of line movement and pointspread winners (it's complicated -- and I'm still trying to see the link...I'll get into the during NBA season). The main point was was trying to make is you cannot look at a line move and say -- well since the line moved X points, that means X is more likely to cover the number. I tried to install weighing factors that would come up with a formula whereby a SIGNIFICANT line move was given more weight than a SLIGHT line move. But, the data simply showed that there was no correlation either way. I line that moved 6 points (say in college football) was just as likely to result in the team gaining points not covering, as covering. In the NFL, I published some of the data and broke it down by 1-7 point line moves (the 7 point line move occurred in a pre-season game). Again, there were games when the line moved 5, 6, and 7 points, and the results were mixed. No correlation. Eventually, I will try to produce more hard data on this with stats. That wil be a project for the future. What I REALLY want to study are the small colleges (basketball) where there is generally just smart money that comes in and moves lines. I suspect that we might be able to gain some edges by following that money in college basketball, but I still need to prove this with hard data, and then try to matriculate this into a formula that works so far as interpreting the line move and assigning a value (degree of edge) to the move, which then justifies a bet. If someone else has data on this, I'd sure like to see it. Otherwise, I'll take on this project sometime after football season.
Nolan Dalla
I need to make one correction about something I posted earlier that could be misinterpreted. I did not mean to imply that it is not wise to follow line moves and watch the direction they go -- especially across key numbers. I have also had conversations with some NBA cappers who have indentified patterns of line movement and pointspread winners (it's complicated -- and I'm still trying to see the link...I'll get into the during NBA season). The main point was was trying to make is you cannot look at a line move and say -- well since the line moved X points, that means X is more likely to cover the number. I tried to install weighing factors that would come up with a formula whereby a SIGNIFICANT line move was given more weight than a SLIGHT line move. But, the data simply showed that there was no correlation either way. I line that moved 6 points (say in college football) was just as likely to result in the team gaining points not covering, as covering. In the NFL, I published some of the data and broke it down by 1-7 point line moves (the 7 point line move occurred in a pre-season game). Again, there were games when the line moved 5, 6, and 7 points, and the results were mixed. No correlation. Eventually, I will try to produce more hard data on this with stats. That wil be a project for the future. What I REALLY want to study are the small colleges (basketball) where there is generally just smart money that comes in and moves lines. I suspect that we might be able to gain some edges by following that money in college basketball, but I still need to prove this with hard data, and then try to matriculate this into a formula that works so far as interpreting the line move and assigning a value (degree of edge) to the move, which then justifies a bet. If someone else has data on this, I'd sure like to see it. Otherwise, I'll take on this project sometime after football season.
Nolan Dalla
Not to change the subject from line movement because it is very interesting but to get back to road favorites when they have a big division game the following week. I guess the next question would be why do they lose? I guess the Denver/Baltimore game why was Denver blown out? I saw the write ups by TheGibber and NYRaider and they were right on but was it Shanahan who was looking past this game? Is this a pattern with him as well as other coaches. Same questions could be asked about NE and Miami. I do not expect answers just something I am going try to look into. My guess is that it is the coaching staff that is looking ahead not so much the players. The players could go into the game flat but I would think they would get more in tune with the moment because they are the ones taking the hits.
GM said:
Good work there GM . I am going to write that one down. The most important thing to me was " more dogs than favorites cover the spread" do you hear that newbie favorite bettors ?
Scott-Atlanta
theGibber1 said:
So then can we put fading under out edge list then ? Is that one that should be looked at every time ? I would like to get 10 things we consider to be edges and then we can rank them as to the most important. and the ones that dont matter we wont waste time with no more.
Scott-Atlanta
