Before he deletes it, I thought I'd simplify these betting angles for people who wish to take advantage.
What Nolan wrote is in red
1. Bet the dog when the favored team is favored by more points in the second half than in the game itself.
Fine. This is a great angle, and is clearly derived from the idiocy of the bettors. A team is getting MORE points for a half than they were offered for an entire game, after winning the first half??? Its astounding anyone would lay that kind of dough. It probably takes advantage of people that want to "secure the win" and really just secures them paying the vig.
2. When one team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.
3. When the road team is leading at halftime by 16+ points, bet the UNDER in the second-half.
Really, why can't these two just be rewritten as "when one team is ahead by 15 or more, bet the under in the second half". If the road team is leading by 16+, then "one team is ahead by 15 or more." Or am I missing something?
4. When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
Here he's really just saying, "if 17 points are scored, go under, unless it's 17-0. But, see '7'.
5. When 23 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
Yup.
6. When 30 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
Yup.
7. When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 38 or lower, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
Well, this has already been covered by '4'. I think 4&7 can just become "when 17 points are scored in the first half, go UNDER, unless it's 17-0".
8. When 21 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 42.5 or higher, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
Basically, I'd just do away with #3 and #7 and write these as:
1. Bet the dog when the favored team is favored by more points in the second half than in the game itself.
2. When one team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.
3. When the 1H total is 17, bet UNDER, unless its 17-0.
4. When the 1H total is 23 or 30, bet OVER.
5. When the 1H total is 21 and the game total is greater than 42.5, bet OVER.
6. If #2 conflicts with #4 or #5, don't bet.
Really, with the '23' total, the only ones not to bet are 20-3, 23-0.
Now, here's a question : Has anyone looked at teams covering the number when they get the ball to start the second half? I don't know if there's a database that keeps this statistic, but it would seem to make at least .5 point difference. Does anyone know anything about this angle, betting the team in the second half that starts with the ball?
That's also something that makes 1H and 1Q betting tricky. You could really be looking at getting "out posessed" 3-2 or 2-1 in the 1Q because of the coin-flip, and that's NOT negligible.
Thanks again to Nolan for publishing these. Hopefully he can comment if I missed something. I know I've talked about these things before.
What Nolan wrote is in red
1. Bet the dog when the favored team is favored by more points in the second half than in the game itself.
Fine. This is a great angle, and is clearly derived from the idiocy of the bettors. A team is getting MORE points for a half than they were offered for an entire game, after winning the first half??? Its astounding anyone would lay that kind of dough. It probably takes advantage of people that want to "secure the win" and really just secures them paying the vig.
2. When one team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.
3. When the road team is leading at halftime by 16+ points, bet the UNDER in the second-half.
Really, why can't these two just be rewritten as "when one team is ahead by 15 or more, bet the under in the second half". If the road team is leading by 16+, then "one team is ahead by 15 or more." Or am I missing something?
4. When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
Here he's really just saying, "if 17 points are scored, go under, unless it's 17-0. But, see '7'.
5. When 23 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
Yup.
6. When 30 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
Yup.
7. When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 38 or lower, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
Well, this has already been covered by '4'. I think 4&7 can just become "when 17 points are scored in the first half, go UNDER, unless it's 17-0".
8. When 21 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 42.5 or higher, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
Basically, I'd just do away with #3 and #7 and write these as:
1. Bet the dog when the favored team is favored by more points in the second half than in the game itself.
2. When one team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.
3. When the 1H total is 17, bet UNDER, unless its 17-0.
4. When the 1H total is 23 or 30, bet OVER.
5. When the 1H total is 21 and the game total is greater than 42.5, bet OVER.
6. If #2 conflicts with #4 or #5, don't bet.
Really, with the '23' total, the only ones not to bet are 20-3, 23-0.
Now, here's a question : Has anyone looked at teams covering the number when they get the ball to start the second half? I don't know if there's a database that keeps this statistic, but it would seem to make at least .5 point difference. Does anyone know anything about this angle, betting the team in the second half that starts with the ball?
That's also something that makes 1H and 1Q betting tricky. You could really be looking at getting "out posessed" 3-2 or 2-1 in the 1Q because of the coin-flip, and that's NOT negligible.
Thanks again to Nolan for publishing these. Hopefully he can comment if I missed something. I know I've talked about these things before.
