North Texas: The key to the Ball State game

IE

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Denton-Record--


I was working on a story on the Ball State game for tomorrow's paper when I got to thinking about what will really end up being the key matchup of this game and how these teams stack up.

To me, this game will likely come down to two of the most inexperienced groups on the field -- UNT's defensive line and Ball State's offensive line.

I have heard from a lot of UNT fans who are thrilled that Ball State lost three really good offensive linemen after last season and will roll out a whole new batch of starters this season.

I agree. That's a huge advantage for UNT. But lets be honest here, UNT isn't rolling out the senior-year versions of Brandon Kennedy, Adrian Awasom and Evan Cardwell, either.

UNT has two tackles who could turn out to be great in Kelvin Jackson and Shavod Atkinson. They showed some flashes of being solid players in two-a-days and they certainly have the size. Both check in at more than 300 pounds.

But those two guys, not to mention Brandon Akpunku, Tevinn Cantly and most of the rest of the guys who will play key roles have shown about as much as Ball State's offensive line. Eddrick Gilmore has some skins of the wall, but he isn't even expected to start.

All of UNT's guys could turn out to be great, and chances are at least some of them will work out. The numbers favor that happening. But if there is one thing UNT history, heck just college football history, tells us, it's that JUCO players need a few games to adjust to playing at the Bowl Subdivision level. Redshirt freshman or sophomores in their first season as key players are usually the same way.

In the end, both of these teams are in the same boat in that regard.

The team that comes out ahead in the battle of the inexperienced lines is going to go a long way to determining who wins this game.
 

IE

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same beat reporter---


Somebody has some faith in UNT
8:57 PM Tue, Sep 01, 2009

I was talking with a couple of the guys in the office tonight before heading home when the conversation turned to the betting lines for college football. We run the odds during football season.

If you look at what is going on in Vegas, a whole bunch of people (or a couple of people with a lot of money) have been drinking the green Kool-Aid. UNT was getting 23 points when the line was set. It had dropped to 16 1/2 as of Tuesday's paper.

Vegas sets the line based on a number that odds-makers think will prompt people to bet both sides of it. The movement in the line indicates everyone and their brother is betting on North Texas.

That doesn't mean they are betting on UNT to win. They are betting on UNT not getting blown out by as big a margin as the original line.

That is still a big show of faith in a UNT team that was hammered over and over again last season. UNT's average margin of defeat on the year was nearly 30 points a game. And remember, this game is on the road. Two of UNT's three wins in the Todd Dodge era have come at Fouts Field, including the Mean Green's only win over a Bowl Subdivision team in that span, a beat up Louisiana-Monroe team back in 2007.

I am not a gambler, but Vegas is rarely wrong. If it is right this time around, UNT could be in for one of its closest games in the Dodge era.
 
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