Northcoast Super Bowl System: check my #s

ChuckyTheGoat

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Ran through these #s. The differential is not huge. Some of the categories are very tight.

I'd like to hear if anyone thinks I'm interpreting the categories incorrectly. I'm using Regular Season stats, which I believe is correct but I don't see where it is specified.

10.0 SB win L3 yrs
...Neither

8.0 Opponent in 1st SB in franchise history
...8.0 to Oakland

8.0 Allow fewer def rushes
...8.0 to Oakland

7.0 Better SU win/loss record
...7.0 to Tampa

7.0 Most Offensive Rushes
...No edge (Each team had 414)

5.0 Lower Defensive YPR
...5.0 to Oakland (microscopic edge: 3.78 vs 3.79)

4.0 Best Net Kick-Punt TD returns
...4.0 to Oak (+2 vs +1)

4.0 Better ATS record
...No edge

4.0 Superior Net Penalty Yards
...4.0 to Tampa (I saw 789 TB vs 1094 Oak)

3.5 Yards per Pass Attempt
...3.5 to Oak

3.5 Better Def PPG
...3.5 to Tampa

3.5 Fewer Rush TD allowed
...3.5 to Tampa

3.0 Most Sacks
...No edge (tied: 43)

2.5 Fewest Off Pass Attempts
...2.5 to Tampa

2.0 Best Net Punts
...2.0 to Tampa (35.2 vs 32.6)

1.5 Best Off YPR
...1.5 to Oak

1.0 Best Completion %
...1.0 to Oak

Sum it up: Oak 31, Tampa 22.5 pts. Oak edge 8.5.

Anyone play around with this? Anybody interpret it differently?

GL, gents.
 

djv

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What I like is the total points. May have a screw up and get 7 less but it's still a over. I say that because some folks use that system there for there O/U play.
 

FRANK RIZZO

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The only thing I would think is suspect is the consideration that a team is playing at a much higher level now than earlier in the season and the average #'s that you are using are based on sub-par performances in the beginning of the year. Ala the Bucs Offense.
 

Senor Capper

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Got your Goat

Got your Goat

Oakland 37pts
Tampa Bay 20.5pts


(Not predicted score but results of Super Bowl System)

Thus a system differential of 16.5 pts between Oakland and Tampa Bay. Compiling the system differential of 16.5 and the line of Oakland -4, gives the Super Bowl system an over-all differential of Oakland -12.5.
Considered a very HIGH DIFFERENTIAL for the system and was told with a differential OVER 10 the system is 16-0....
 

ChuckyTheGoat

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Thx, Senor. I my be calculating 1 or 2 of the categories wrong, not sure. Maybe he changed it from the version I have, too.

The record on the system is very strong, though.

GL, Senor.
 

djv

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However the 10 point differance that Senor mentions is correct at 100%. There are places that try to sell this system for 25 bucks.
And yes some say useing these numbers can help in your over under play also.
 

ChuckyTheGoat

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Valuist:

Of course, you're right. The system is linear. ie, there is no extra weight for a sizable edge vs a small edge.

In fact, the first run I made through the #s I was at Oak right on the #: 3.5 pt edge, since I was rounding to one decimal point (3.8 vs 3.8). I knew that couldn't truly be a tie, so I looked at it again. The system points to Oakland. I don't put judgment into it; I just calculate it.

Agree or disagree, I do think there's some sensibility to using this historical profile approach based on past Super Bowl winners.

GL, all.
 

motley plays

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Im sure LAST SUPER BOWL ,THAT SYSTEM HAD THE RAMS BLOWING OUT THE PATRIOTS.

In this era of the NFL, systems and past performance are all thrown out. according to my book the bucs are are being played 65% of all bets. Which in away scares me, then again there are alot of raider haters around these parts,but I then checked my off shore book and its basically the same percentage.

I like the points but I beleive the Raiders if behind have the players to score and get the win in the end. Raiders 20, Bucs 17.
 
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