So here i sit in a quandry. Being a faithful wolfpack alum, I am aware that state has a mediocre team this year, and a tendency of late of blowing their biggest games of the year. As a sports bettor, my emphasis has always been on watching line moves and handicapping off the action rather than handicapping the teams, which I assume the linemakers in vegas can do better than I could. So now, as I watch the line in this game move from irish -1 to wolfpack -3 with, depnding on where you look, somewhere in the neighborhood of 75% of tickets being written on notre dame. Normally, I would be throwing down hard on the pack, but why do I feel like the guy taking back his three-time cheating girlfriend because she promised to be faithful?
notre dame @ nc state
- Thread starter loophole
- Start date
Loop, you know State. They win the games they aren't supposed to and lose the ones they should win. I think they win here but no way I would lay 3.
The bigger question is, what do you think the weather will do. I'd like your opinion. I have a very big play on the over in the Carolina/VT game but the forecast is for 1-2 inches of rain and winds up to 30mph. Does that always mean unders come in play? Or with sloppier play does it mean more points. I think it really hurts Carolina's chances of winning because so much of the offense relies on speed and quick passes. If Elijah Hood is out (questionable, concussion) I'm thinking maybe I should buy back my over, eat the juice, and maybe play VT on the ML.
I know I write up some worthless paragraphs about teams sometimes but I like to cap off of what the "majority" is doing and what the lines are doing as well... Anyways I don't know what it means to you but I find this interesting... Stanford Steve has been pretty well known for a while now and even more so with the "majority" giving "his pick" out on svp in his own chair front and center stage.:facepalm: Last night he took the domers +2.5... What I thought was interesting about this is svp reminded Steve that the whole public is on notre dame... Steve says I don't care the whole public is going to win... Or something along those lines.... I wouldn't bet just based on that but it does tell me a few things..
Saint im more into playing unders in conference games. Theres a tracked system ive followed for awhile that, in games prior to november, takes under in any conference game where one team scored 49+ in the previous week. Tracks at about 58% if I recall correctly but for totals set under 50 it jumps to over 70%. So anyway I had the carolina game marked for a possble under play, but im off it now due to the big drop in the line due to weather.
I'm with you loophole. I just don't see it with this team of ours. ND is gonna score and I just don't see us keeping up with them. I've been at all 3 home games so far and there is not much about this team that excites me. Last time I bet against us as against Georgia Tech a few years ago at home laying 3 or so. That line looked way off so I loaded up and we list by about 30.
I like Notre Dame +3 in this spot... should be a high scoring shootout with the Irish's pathetic defense.
bit on the wolfpack -2-, also on UConn +3-, kan +28-, miss st under 55, md under 56 in early games. these are for tracking purposes only. if I stay hot i'll post the afternoon games early.
here's 5 more, a couple are late, trying to get use to posting again - army +5-, emu under 65, byu +4, va tech -2-, ok st under 67.
glta
glta
