NRL Rd 4 Fri (Down Under time) picks:
Game 1) NZ Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons, Ericsson Stadium, Auckland, 16:00 CST
Warriors +2.5 ($1.90Aus), Dragons -2.5. Over 40.5 $1.90/Under $1.80
The line has moved a point in the Warriors favour since the Dragons opened as a -3.5 road chalk. This is mainly in response to the injury problems the Dragons have in their forwards with Nathan Brown, Darren Treacy and Lance Thompson out and big prop and skipper Craig Smith suspended for 2 weeks. But the initial trio have been out for the first 3 rounds anyway and powerful Chris Leikvoll is a ready-made replacement for Smith. The Warriors pack is relatively strong and should be able to match up with the visitors, with the likes of Awen Guttenbeil, Ali Lauiti'iti and Kevin Campion being key figures for the Warriors. But the Dragons may have a decisive edge in the backline. Stacey Jones is the only huge danger in the Warriors backline but the visitors will pose NZ a host of problems. Fullback Amos Roberts and pacy winger Nathan Blacklock (a prolific tryscorer) are dangerous runners, Jamie Ainscough (a big off-season signing target for the Warriors) hugely experienced and State of Origin veteran Paul McGregor likely to have a big impact after returning from injury recently - look for his strength to test the Warriors' right-side defence where Jones plays. Then factor in chief playmaker Trent Barrett, the young Kangaroo who was voted the NRL's best player last season. The Dragons started on fire with an away win over the Sharks but have lost two straight to Wests Tigers and Melbourne Storm at home. The Warriors showed courage last week despite a 29-10 away loss v the Tigers when they lost Shontayne Hape and Wairangi Koopu for one and two months respectively with injuries and faced a ton of pressure and possession from the victors. Given that the home side have only had five days to back up from that taxing effort, the road fave trend (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS this season)and the Dragons' scoring potential, can see value in the visitors in a match I'll attend after the second day of the NZ v Pakistan cricket test.
PLAY DRAGONS -2.5 (up to -3.5)
Game 2) Newcastle Knights v Parramatta Eels, Marathon Stadium, Newcastle, 18:00 CST
Knights ($1.80Aus) pick 'em, Eels ($2.00Aus) pick 'em. Over 40.5 $1.80/Under $1.90
Should be a fantastic clash between 2 sides likely to go deep into the finals. Eels are coming off their tremendous win over the defending champion Broncos while the Knights also struck late to secure a draw at table-toppers The Bulldogs in Rd 3. Too hard to sort a winner here.
NO PLAY
Super 12 Rd 3 Fri (Down Under time) picks:
Game 1) Wellington Hurricanes v Stormers, WestpacTrust Stadium, Wellington, 16:05 CST
Hurricanes -9.5 ($1.90Aus), Stormers +9.5
Was looking at playing the Stormers as a contrarian pick earlier this week, expecting a line of around +14.5, despite their awful early season form - a loss at home to the rampant Cats as a -4.5 home chalk and a 35-7 drubbing by the on-fire Waratahs last weekend. Given the fact they've struck the two hottest teams in the competition and the likelihood that coach Alan Solomons is going to emphasise that another defeat here makes them outsiders for a semifinal place I was still slightly tempted but I don't like the current odds. So are the 'Canes the play? No. They struggled to dispatch the Bulls and didn't look like covering the big start they were giving last weekend at home. Their lineout work has been poor, their backline out of sync despite the presence of superstars Jonah Lomu, Christian Cullen and Tama Umaga. I expect the side - the majority of which formed the winning unit in last year's NZ national provincial championship in October - to find form later in the competition but may stutter again here. The ability of that backline trio to go try-crazy forbids a play either way.
NO PLAY
Back tomorrow with results and Sat previews; some very interesting matches to 'cap.
GLTA
Goo
Game 1) NZ Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons, Ericsson Stadium, Auckland, 16:00 CST
Warriors +2.5 ($1.90Aus), Dragons -2.5. Over 40.5 $1.90/Under $1.80
The line has moved a point in the Warriors favour since the Dragons opened as a -3.5 road chalk. This is mainly in response to the injury problems the Dragons have in their forwards with Nathan Brown, Darren Treacy and Lance Thompson out and big prop and skipper Craig Smith suspended for 2 weeks. But the initial trio have been out for the first 3 rounds anyway and powerful Chris Leikvoll is a ready-made replacement for Smith. The Warriors pack is relatively strong and should be able to match up with the visitors, with the likes of Awen Guttenbeil, Ali Lauiti'iti and Kevin Campion being key figures for the Warriors. But the Dragons may have a decisive edge in the backline. Stacey Jones is the only huge danger in the Warriors backline but the visitors will pose NZ a host of problems. Fullback Amos Roberts and pacy winger Nathan Blacklock (a prolific tryscorer) are dangerous runners, Jamie Ainscough (a big off-season signing target for the Warriors) hugely experienced and State of Origin veteran Paul McGregor likely to have a big impact after returning from injury recently - look for his strength to test the Warriors' right-side defence where Jones plays. Then factor in chief playmaker Trent Barrett, the young Kangaroo who was voted the NRL's best player last season. The Dragons started on fire with an away win over the Sharks but have lost two straight to Wests Tigers and Melbourne Storm at home. The Warriors showed courage last week despite a 29-10 away loss v the Tigers when they lost Shontayne Hape and Wairangi Koopu for one and two months respectively with injuries and faced a ton of pressure and possession from the victors. Given that the home side have only had five days to back up from that taxing effort, the road fave trend (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS this season)and the Dragons' scoring potential, can see value in the visitors in a match I'll attend after the second day of the NZ v Pakistan cricket test.
PLAY DRAGONS -2.5 (up to -3.5)
Game 2) Newcastle Knights v Parramatta Eels, Marathon Stadium, Newcastle, 18:00 CST
Knights ($1.80Aus) pick 'em, Eels ($2.00Aus) pick 'em. Over 40.5 $1.80/Under $1.90
Should be a fantastic clash between 2 sides likely to go deep into the finals. Eels are coming off their tremendous win over the defending champion Broncos while the Knights also struck late to secure a draw at table-toppers The Bulldogs in Rd 3. Too hard to sort a winner here.
NO PLAY
Super 12 Rd 3 Fri (Down Under time) picks:
Game 1) Wellington Hurricanes v Stormers, WestpacTrust Stadium, Wellington, 16:05 CST
Hurricanes -9.5 ($1.90Aus), Stormers +9.5
Was looking at playing the Stormers as a contrarian pick earlier this week, expecting a line of around +14.5, despite their awful early season form - a loss at home to the rampant Cats as a -4.5 home chalk and a 35-7 drubbing by the on-fire Waratahs last weekend. Given the fact they've struck the two hottest teams in the competition and the likelihood that coach Alan Solomons is going to emphasise that another defeat here makes them outsiders for a semifinal place I was still slightly tempted but I don't like the current odds. So are the 'Canes the play? No. They struggled to dispatch the Bulls and didn't look like covering the big start they were giving last weekend at home. Their lineout work has been poor, their backline out of sync despite the presence of superstars Jonah Lomu, Christian Cullen and Tama Umaga. I expect the side - the majority of which formed the winning unit in last year's NZ national provincial championship in October - to find form later in the competition but may stutter again here. The ability of that backline trio to go try-crazy forbids a play either way.
NO PLAY
Back tomorrow with results and Sat previews; some very interesting matches to 'cap.
GLTA
Goo
