OAKLAND AT KC 22,23RD

[RAYMOND]

I HAVE A BIT MORE FAITH IN THE ATHETICS AFTER THEIR MOST RECENT ROAD TRIP 6-4 WITH 5.9 RUNS PER GAME LAST 10 DAYS THEY;VE BEEN PROFITABLE ON THE ROAD IN NITE GAMES. 11-5 AND BOTH THESE CONTESTS ARE EVENING AFFAIRS.
THE ROYALS NUMBERS AGAINST LEFTHANDERS ARE
PARTICULARLY UGLY 3-12 SO TAKE THE OAKLAND LEFTIES WHEN YOU GET A CHANGE.

PREFERRED MULDER AND ZITO

------------------
RAYMOND

 

[Kevin]

Thing that scares me here is KC has hit .290 in may and despite their record they hit lefties better than they do righties.

 

[RAYMOND]

KS IS 3-12 AGAINST LEFTIES

 

[RAYMOND]

LOVE OAKLAND HERE

 

[Investment Executive]

gotta agree w/ your skepticsm here kevin....the stats this year are really hidden gems since the teams play these unbalanced schedules...kansas city has played
on their homestands...
boston
minnesota ...twice
cleveland
toronto
nyyankees
tampa bay..
not exactly the bottom of the barrel except for tbay(who they swept)

lefties at home...
5/5/01 Minnesota J.Suppan J.Romero W 12-10
5/4/01 Minnesota B.Meadows M.Redman L 2-6
5/2/01 Cleveland M.Suzuki C.C.Sabathia L 4-8
5/1/01 Cleveland C.Durbin C.Finley L 2-13
4/9/01 NY Yankees B.Stein A.Pettitte L 4-13
4/8/01 Minnesota M.Suzuki J.Romero W 15-4
4/7/01 Minnesota J.Suppan M.Redman W 5-3

the situation last week w/ oakland at home against the yankees gave a glimpse of the schedule strength...as they had the most difficult schedule going into that series but the line was adjusted for them being dogs against the yankees because of their record...

not saying kc or oakland is the play here but the records of certain teams can be very very misleading this year so far--situational and overall.

the royals have played the 2nd most difficult schedule of all major league teams so far this year.

if their bullpen is able to utilize bailey and grimsley and not get into the others they have good chances late...when those two are overused is when they get into trouble w/ the bullpen..they have racked up the innings pitched on suppan so don't like what i see coming up for him today..but zito is only a 50% quality start proposition also...

should be a higher scoring series i would think..

 

[Junior44]

Interesting dialogue here.......

It's very hard to tell this early in the season which teams are overachieving and which ones are not. Are the Rangers, the Mets, and the Reds that bad? Are the Twins and the Mariners that good? Are the Yankees and the Braves just a couple of .500 squads right now. Unfortunately, we won't know this until the schedule has come full circle.

Comparing different teams' schedules at this point in the season can be misleading (not just becuase of the above) but because of baseball's cyclical nature. It's all about one's own perception. For instance, (and this is my opinion) I believe that at least 3 of the following to be true: the Twins are not that good, the Rangers are not that bad, the Cubs are still awful, and the Braves are a .500 ballclub. And I still believe the AL West has more talent than any division.

The point being is that I don't believe one can get an accurate gauge on strength of schedule, especially this early. In fact, there are many that believe that strength of schedule is all relative and generally worthless (more so in football).

Part of handicapping is very much about perception and/or predicted outcome, devoid of statistical measures. (and remember, this is coming from somebody who knows full well the power of the number)...This game is an ideal situation to demonstrate what I mean. I believed, before the season started, that the A's were the best team in the AL (on paper) and roughly 1/4 into their season, I still believe that. During an 162 game season, all teams go through a slump. Perhaps the A's had their's at the start? Who's to say?.....What I DO know is this: Assuming you believe the A's to be a "good" team (my opinion), let's look at their recent form.

- 6 straight wins (sweeps of Yankees/Chicago)
- 10-2 record last 14
- 13-5 record thus far in May (2nd best in the majors to Cleveland)
- 4-2 last 6 on road

During this streak they played:

- 3 games vs Yankees
- 6 games vs Boston
- 6 games vs Toronto

and won games the following pitchers have started: Michalak (twice), Ohka, Clemens, Pettitte, Mussina, Wells, and Baldwin.

Not a bad group either........

Now you have a pitcher in ZITO who is 10-7 with a 3.71 ERA, and 6-3 2.90 on the road for his career, with greater than a 2-1 K/BB ratio, and, who has the benefit in the fact that the Royals have never faced him.

Here's another interesting tidbit. The Royals have scored more than 5 runs only 4-times this season at home (vs Twins twice and vs Rays twice) Also, although KC has a slightly better BA against LHP, they have a lower sluggin % and a lower Hr/AB ratio.

If this game were at the end of last year, or the first game or so this year, line would be -150 or so. With Oakland's current form, I think -120 has some serious value.

 

[bmc]

Should be interesting.
Jhonny "Mendoza" Damon's return to KC.
He could go under the line tonight.
A radio station has called for a "bleacher night" in left field G.A.
They're broadcasting from the gate out there.
Brands Mart is gonna give a TV to a fan if he makes an error.
He's gonna catch hell.

 

[Nosigar]

Very nice write-up, Junior. I also believe that from here on the statistical aberrations, slumps, streaks, etc. COULD begin to even out.
I did very well in April playing mostly dogs, and in May began to play the teams and pitchers I thought were the better (using last two years or so). That was not good!

Coming into June presents perhaps another possibility of getting good value on good teams which have not been up to par but who have played extensively against a particular set of well performing teams.
Also, an opportunity to go against other teams which have been a surprise but have played extensively vs. mediocre teams (i.e Minn, Sea, etc.).
Although by no means is last year a measure of this years performance, which teams have been up and coming for the last seasons (Oak, Tex, SF, Marlins??, Hou, etc.)? Which have been falling from grace (Atl, Pitt, Mets, etc)?
Although we as bettors will play any team indiscriminately if we believe thay have a chance to win, we always have in the back of our mind a like or dislike for a particular team, pitcher, player, etc. and tend to play this more so than others as we see value ni the play. If one is correct in his/her assesment that a particular team wil be succesful in any given season, any slump should correct itself over the course of the season for that particular team, and therefore provide winnings. The tough part is deciding when a slump is over or a streak comes to an end. Is it the All Star break? Is it after inter-league play? Or is it when temas begin to face non-divisional rivals.
Whatever it is, it's worth a look at. And it's worth stopping for a while to analyze what teams have been overacheiving or underacheiving and why, and adjust accordingly. That could make a huge difference in your Bases bankroll.

 

[Kevin]

I love zito but since KC is hitting. .290 this month it makes it a no play for me. KC's boppers are right handed bats..Sweeney, Dye, and Quinn.

 

[RAYMOND]

ADDING OAKLAND OVER 9.5 RUNS

 

[Junior44]

Nosigar - Thanks for keeping the dialogue going. You bring up another interesting point that very much fits into what I was talking about. Not only do we, as handicappers, have our opinions on which teams are good, which teams are bad, and over and underachieving, but (like you mentioned) we also have our biases, based not on performance but by our own like (or dislike) of particular teams, pitchers, Quarterbacks, etc. Now, of course the ideal position, as a handicapper, would to be completely nuetral. However, human nature makes this unrealistic. Sure, you can minimize it. In fact, one of the fundamental keys to success is to keep personal bias to an absolute minimum. But, assuming one is a sports fan, you cannot rid yourself of it entirely (although many think they can). Our competitive nature and the competitive nature of sport is innate and anybody who likes sports will have their biases. Even though it may not be apparant on the conscious level, it exists nonetheless. Example: "popular" teams like the Braves, Yankees, Notre Dame, the Dallas Cowboys, etc, are almost always overpriced (sometimes only very slightly), and this is a very valuable handicapping tool. This leads to the question: What is the public's bias and/or personal bias worth? 10 cents? 5 cents? I suppose it all depends on the individual, because certainly there are folks who will bet on a team regardless of the price. For me personally, after handicapping for 15 years or so, the effect of my own personal bias is probably as low as it's every going to get. But, I recognize this and incorporate it into my handicapping. Certain teams have a higher criterea before becoming "a play" then others. In otherwords, the perceived "value" in a game involving these teams needs to be adjusted accordingly.

Here's another example: I live in San Diego and go down to the Caliente sportsbooks in Mexico on occasion. Not only are these places Squaresville, USA, but the bias towards Southern California teams is astounding. Teams like the Padres, Dodgers, Chargers, Lakers, UCLA (hoops and foots), and USC are ALWAYS overpriced, and if one is able to accurately pinpoint their own personal bias, the advantage of taking the other side in these games is multiplied.

 

[Kevin]

Nice call Ray!