Oct 9th-11th Calculated Line Plays

[Mick Onofrio]

Plays are at the bottom of my explanation of my Chaser Angle.

3rd week of Calculated Line Plays Program versus Actual Line.
Record: 16-7-2 +$495. I play every game at $55 to make $50. This is a program I've been working on for 4 years. Typically there are 10-15 plays a week. This week finds an unusually higher amount of plays. This program was developed by me to try to find which Underdogs are the most undervalued and in turn, which Favorites are giving too many points. There are times when it's the exact opposite and a Favorite is undervalued as is the case a few times this week. I am also working on an Angle I call the Chaser Angle. This angle is based on the theory that most bettors seem to play a higer percentage of Favorites. When the early favorites lose, the bettors will seek out other popular favorites in later games in order to chase their losses. What I am finding is Later Games have the biggest value in terms of Favorites being overpriced or giving too many points. The explanation for this is two-fold. (1). The Oddsmakers can only do so much to assure that their lines for any particular game is a sharp as can be. What happens on the field is entirely out of their hands. Even though Joe Public is known to bet a large percentage of favorites more times than not, even an early overvalued favorite might cover and become a big loss for the oddsmakers. (2). With that said I am finding the late favorites to be a little more overvalued than the early ones almost as if Oddsmakers are building an early defense mechanism to protect against a possible early loss and to protect against those that might chase. Either way I have been finding the largest amount of Line Value to be in the Later Games. More specifically games that showcase a big-named school that is usually a public favorite giving big points to a program not having a lot of success. It is also safe to assume that if the Public hits big on an early favorite they will not be satisfied and will more often try to double or triple their winnings on later games. If you just survived all of this rambling here are this weeks plays: Note the following abbreviations stand for: AL=Actual Line, CL=Calculated Line, ACL =Average Calculated Line, LVR=Line Value Range, ALV=Average Line Value. LVR and ALV represent how many points the Actual Line is off from My Calcualted Line.

Friday 10-10-03

Michigan at Minnesota
AL: Michigan -1
CL: Mich -0.74 thru Minn -5.93
ACL: Minn -3.46
Play On Minnesota, ALV: 4.46 and LVR: 0.26 thru 6.93 points

As an example to help decipher what this all means is Michigan is giving 1, they are a potential favorite of no more than 0.74 points but Minnesota is a potential favorite of up to 5.93 points. An average of the numbers show Minnesota as 3.46 point Favorites. The ALV and LVR show the line is off by an average of 4.46 points and off by a range of 0.26 thru 6.93 points all in favor of Minnesota. So Minn U is the play.

Saturday Early Games 12pm-330pm

Miami at Fla State
AL: FSU -7
CL: Miami -1.2 thru FSU -5.78
ACL: FSU -3.30
Play on Miami, ALV: 2.70 and LVR 1.22 thru 8.2 points

Duke at Maryland
AL: Mar -27.5
CL: Mar -16.04 thru -22.72
ACL: Mar -20.49
Play on Duke, ALV 7.01 and LVR 4.78 thru 11.46 points

Rutgers at WVU
AL: WVU -18
CL: WVU -1.95 thru -15.28 (the big gap is always a concern)
ACL: WVU -9.6
Play on Rutgers, ALV 8.4 and LVR 2.72 thru 16.05

UCONN at NC STATE
AL: NCSU -16.5
CL: NCSU -10.45 thru -14.04
ACL: NCSU -11.84
Lean on UCONN only because I follow this team personally and am at a loss to fathom where their offense will come from without Terrey Caulley. ALV 4.66 and LVR 2.46 thru 6.05

Northwestern at Indiana
AL: NWU -3.5
CL: NWU -5.46 thru -11.64
ACL: NWU -7.7
Play on NWU(rare fav) ALV 4.2 and LVR 1.93 thru 8.14

Syracuse at Virg Tech
AL: V Tech -19
CL: VT -5.15 thru -9.24
ACL: VT -7.00
Play on Syracue, ALV 11.5 and LVR 9.26 thru 13.35

Michigan State at Illinois
AL: MSU -5
CL: MSU -7.15 thru -16.84
ACL: MSU -10.88
Play on MSU only at -5 or less, ALV 5.88 LVR 2.15 thru 11.84
rare favorite

Navy at Vanderbilt
AL: Vand -6
CL: Van -2.22 thru Navy -9.49
ACL: Navy -2.52
Play on Navy, ALV 8.52 and LVR 3.78 thru 15.49(caution wide gap)

Oregon at Arizona State
AL: Ore -2
CL: Ore -3.33 thru -7.20
ACL: Ore -5.6
Play on Oregon, ALV 3.6 and LVR 1.33 thru 5.20
caution another road favorite

Memphis at Mississippi State
AL: MSU -4.5
CL: Mem -1.86 thru MSU -2.45
ACL: MSU -0.21
Play on Memphis, ALV 4.29 and LVR 2.05 thru 6.31

Kansas at Colorado
AL: Col -7
CL: Kan -1.6 thru Col -4.66
ACL: Col -2.53
Play on Kansas, ALV 4.47 and LVR 2.34 thru 8.6

Nevada at Washington
AL: Wash -18
CL: Wash -12.29 thru -15.94
ACL: Wash -13.71
Play on Nevada, ALV 4.29 and LVR 2.06 thru 5.71

Kent State at Marshall
AL: Mar -21
CL: mar -9.69 thru -14.85
ACL: Mar -12.60
Play on Kent St, ALV 9.4 and LVR 7.15 thru 12.31

Baylor at Tex A&M
AL: AM -20.5
CL: AM -9.32 thru -13.60
ACL: AM -11.39
Play on Baylor, ALV 9.11 and LVR 6.9 thur 11.18

Beyond 3:30 pm

Nebraska at Missouri
AL: Neb -6
CL: Neb -9.58 thru -14,58
ACL: Neb -12.12
Play on Neb(another fav) ALV 6.12 LVR 3.58 thru 8.58
7:00 pm could be a no play if late line movement occurs

Iowa State at Tex Tech
AL: Tech -16
CL: Tech -8.07 thru -13.61
ACL: Tech -11.36
Lean on ISU...too close to be a play IMO. Late movement could make this a play, ALV 4.64 and LVR 2.39 thru 7.93

Tulsa at Boise State
AL: BSU -23
CL: BSU -8.13 thru -14.08
ACL: BSU -11.80
Play on Tulsa, ALV 11.20 and LVR 8.92 thru 14.87

Stanford at USC
AL: USC -22
CL: USC -5.27 thru -12.25
ACL: USC -9.87
Play on Stanford, ALV 12.13 and LVR 9.75 thru 16.73

17 Total Plays where my calculations find over/undervalued teams:

Minnesota +1

Miami +7

Syracuse +19

Navy +6

Rutgers +18

Duke +27.5

Northwestern -3.5

Kent State +21

Kansas +7

Baylor +20.5

Stanford +22

Neb -6(keep an eye on this line if it drops Neb is very valuable)

Tulsa +23

Nevada +18(more of a lean but I think it will be bet up to a play)

Michigan State -5 (I just saw 3.5, this either makes it a play or a trap cause this line is 10.88 points off on average in Michigan State's favor)

Memphis +4.5

Oregon -2

If more plays develope or undevelope I will do my best to post them.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Great stuff again this week! Look forward to your posts and thanks for your work. Hope you have a huge weekend! GL

HORNS

 

[tendog]

interesting thought about the late favs i will be watching the big sat night games to see what happens

 

[Mick Onofrio]

be sure to watch line movement on the late games though

be sure to watch line movement on the late games though

sometimes you can tell where the oddsmakers want the money in late line movements. For example, if the Nebraska line starts coming down yet you don't know one person that's betting Missouri you know there is some psychology behind it. So far, actually...all the big shot so-called Handicappers are "pounding" missouri which is a good sign. Most of these guys that do the Vegas Radio Handicapping shows are all in kahoots with the oddsmakers and in some instances are paid by oddsmakers to pump up a team that they want the public to play. It happens every week. So if you hear Wayne Root saying Wyoming is his "Game of the Year" go the other way. Chances are Joe Lupo is signing his check every week. This is a common sense business and most times the public has none(common sense). Perfect example: Lee Corso and company giving the "picks of the week" out on the very network, ESPN, that has a daily segment on ESPN News that allows a Vegas Sportsbook General Manager to "discuss" sports wagering. Vegas has a big influence and a strong relationship with ESPN. Think about all the money the two have made together since ESPN started broadcasting in the late 70's - early 80's. Also pay attention to the bogus trends on the ESPN bottom line just before a game on Saturday morning. It's all business. Good Luck,

Mick

 

[Mick Onofrio]

great book

great book

called, "The Odds" that discusses how ESPN helped turned Sports Wager into a billion dollar a year industry when the started televising obscure college b-ball games over 20 years ago. Author Chad Millman. Most people like us have already read it but if you haven't pick it up. Talks a lot about Alan Boston and tells some great Vegas stories. But the ESPN segment of the book really hit home so to speak when I saw the Hilton Sportsbook GM talking on ESPN News about Prop Betting on a Monday afternoon, 4 hours before MNF. I wonder how many prop bets were made that night???

 

[Mick Onofrio]

On Thursday October 9th

On Thursday October 9th

I will rank my plays by strength, according to the amount of points on average my calculations find the actual pointspread to be off by. I will also update any changes in Value based on line movements. Stay Tuned and Good Luck. I'm having mixed emotions about this weekend but in my opinion, judging by the early favorites, it looks as if the Oddsmakers are out to put an end to a lot of bettor's College Football dreams early this week.

 

[jmizeus]

great work mike! and ur right about all the advertisement they do on espn w/the trends etc. i try and tell my friends. i say "why do u think they post this stuff" great job bud

 

[bamabuck44]

:clap: Good stuff, Good luck. Buck

 

[hogman14]

Re: great book

Re: great book

called, "The Odds" that discusses how ESPN helped turned Sports Wager into a billion dollar a year industry when the started televising obscure college b-ball games over 20 years ago. Author Chad Millman. Most people like us have already read it but if you haven't pick it up. Talks a lot about Alan Boston and tells some great Vegas stories. But the ESPN segment of the book really hit home so to speak when I saw the Hilton Sportsbook GM talking on ESPN News about Prop Betting on a Monday afternoon, 4 hours before MNF. I wonder how many prop bets were made that night???

I'll 2nd that. An excellent read, recommended for casual bettor and compulsive gambler alike. Can't say anything bad about it.

GL Fellas

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Strength of Plays

Strength of Plays

This week, to rate the strength of these plays I will try something different. Like I said I've been working on this for 4 years now and I'm always making some adjustments. Last week, the games that had lines that by average, were off the most, Tennessee, Fresno State, and UL-Lafayette were all losers. One thing I noticed about these 3 games is they might have by average been off the most, they also had the widest gaps in Value Range, more specifically in the Tennessee game the number were Tennessee should have been 3.24-12.88 points favorites. The 12.88 can really pump the average up. See what I'm saying? So this week I will rank them with the STRONGEST PLAY BEING THE ONES WHERE THE LINES ARE OFF BY A HIGH AVERAGE BUT THE MARGIN RANGE IS SMALL. An example this week would be Syracuse where the line is off by an average of 11.5 points but the range is only 9.26-13.35 or roughly 4 points. That would be a strong play because the 3 ranking methods all have Syracuse an underdog by about the same which makes the line off by about the same. I will be back once I figure out the order of rank. Probably an hour.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Experimenting With a Ranking Process

Experimenting With a Ranking Process

Be advised Fellas, this week I am experimenting with a Play Ranking Process that came to mind last week as I saw what I thought would be the strongest plays lose.

Explanation of how I come up with the Strength of play rating:
What I did was take the Average Value, which is the number that correlates to the amount of points the pointspread is off in favor of the team that is the play. I come up with the average value by adding up the three numbers I get from the ranking systems and simply divide it by three to get an average of the three Ranking systems. To get the average value I subtract the number that is the average of the three systems from the actual pointspread. I will use Syracuse/Virginia Tech as an example again. The actual Pointspread is Va Tech -18.5(I was able to get 19 from Tues NY Post). The average calculated pointspread(the three systems added up and divided by 3) is Va Tech giving 7 points. I then subtract 7 from the actual number of 18.5 to get an average value of 11.5 points in favor of Syracuse. What I then do is take the variation of the 3 systems and subtract the lowest number from the actual pointspread and the highest number from the actual pointspread to get the value variation margin or gap. In Syracuse/Va Tech's case the numbers are Va Tech - 5.15 through Va Tech -9.24. I then subtract 9.24 from 18.5 to get 9.26 points then I subtract 5.15 points from 18.5 to get 13.35 points. So 9.26 through 13.35 becomes the Value Range, or in English the amount of points that the actual pointspread favors playing Syracue. Now I subtract 9.26 from 13.35 to get 4.09 to get the Variation Gap or Margin. To get the Strength of Play ranking I divide the Average number that my calculations find the actual pointspread to be off by which is 11.5 into the Variation Gap or Line Value Range Gap which is 4.09 and I get 2.81 points which makes Syracuse the strongest play of the week. The further away the numbers comes up from zero, as a whole number, the strongest the play is. So here are the Strength of Play Ratings with the Rank, Team Strength of Play Rating listed in this order:

1. Syracuse 2.81 LOSS
2. Baylor 2.13 LOSS
3. Tulsa 1.88
4. Stanford 1.74
5. Kent State 1.63 WIN
6. Notre Dame 1.42 WIN (wasn't listed as a play, but numbers will be at the bottom of these rankings.

7. UCONN 1.28 WIN
8. Nebraska 1.22
9. Duke 1.05 WIN
10. Memphis 1.01 LOSS
11. Nevada 1.00 WIN

Now the rest of these plays rank on the other side of zero, the non-whole-number side.

12. Arkansas State 0.99 LOSS (not listed but numbers will follow.)
13. Oregon 0.93 LOSS
14. Iowa State 0.84
15. Kansas 0.71 WIN
16. Navy 0.73 WIN
17. Northwestern 0.68 WIN
18. Minnesota 0.67 PUSH
19. Rutgers 0.63 WIN
20. Miami 0.53 WIN

For the sake of experimentation I will not alter the wagering amount this week. They will all be 55 to make 50. I will, however, only wager on the games that are in whole number form and if I need a play later in the day I will dig up the next most valuable play. Note that I already played Miami but it shows up as the weakest play. I played them because this will be the only time this year you get them as a dog.

Notre Dame at Pitt
AL: Pit -10
CL: Pit -2.38 thru 6.46
ACL: Pit -4.21
Play on ND, ALV 5.79 and LVR: 3.54 thru 7.62

Arkansas State at Ole Miss
AL: Ole Miss -25.5
CL: Ole Miss -17.05 thru 22.49
ACL: Ole Miss -20.12
Play on Ark State, ALV: 5.38 and LVR: 3.01 thru 8.45

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Plays as of Thurday 10-9-03

Plays as of Thurday 10-9-03

All plays will be risking 55 to make 50, I don't advise anyone to come along this week, but instead use all this info to help in whatever you decide. After last week, I felt it was time to make sense of all these numbers and really get things in order. Stand by as I take last week's results and put them through the same Strength of Play system that these fell under.

Rank/Team/Actual Strength of Play Ranking.
1. Syracuse 2.81
2. Baylor 2.13
3. Tulsa 1.88
4. Stanford 1.74
5. Kent State 1.63
6. Notre Dame 1.42
7. UCONN 1.28
8. Nebraska 1.22
9. Duke 1.05
10. Memphis 1.01
11. Nevada 1.00

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Updated Lines om Plays

Updated Lines om Plays

Syracuse +18.5 (locked in at 19)
Baylor +20.5
Tulsa +23
Stanford +21.5
Kent State +20 (line movement not beneficial at all, may become a no-play)
Notre Dame +9.5 (Locked in at 10, should reach 10+ again)
UCONN +16.5
Nebraska -7 (line movement not beneficial, poss. No Play)
Duke +27.5
Memphis +4.5
Nevada +18
Ark State +25.5
Oregon -2
Iowa State +17(beneficial line movement +1)
Kansas +7
Navy +6
Northwestern -3.5
Minnesota -1 (N0 PLAY)
Rutgers +18
Miami +7 (beneficial movement)

Minnesota is off the board
Nebraska is Close
Kent State is close

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Minn/Mich

Minn/Mich

This could soon become a play on Minnesota again. Line has hit Mich -2 and should keep climbing. At Mich -2 it's a play, but the more points the stronger.

As Michigan gets bet up to a higher favorite here's what will happen to Minnesota's Strength of play (SOP) rating:

at mich -2, SOP rating for Minnesota 0.82
at mich -2.5...Rating is 0.89
if we can get so lucky to get Minnesota +3 the SOP rating would become close to a whole number at 0.97, with a gift of 3.5 points we would be at 1.04 for a ranking. It seems, based on last week's result, that the strongest plays are those with a whole number ranking.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

TCU/SoFla

TCU/SoFla

Even with TCU getting 2 points the strength of play ranking is only 0.65, due mainly to the wide gap in predictor methods. One method has SoFla as about a PK-half point fav, while the other two have TCU -6.5 and TCU -1.00. This game can go either way IMO and there is little value in the line. Always remember that this method/program of pridicting is all about finding value in lines. Usually it finds OVERVALUED favorites.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

If by chance we can get a lot of late money to push

If by chance we can get a lot of late money to push

Minnesota to 3.5 point dogs(unlikely, but you never know) this will become the 5th strongest play of the week. At Minn +2 it doesn't even crack the top 15, at +2.5 it would be 14th, and like I said earlier at +3 or +3.5 it would be very strong. 3 is within reach.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Stepping outside of my calculations for a second

Stepping outside of my calculations for a second

I never let outside statistcis or trends or motivational factors get involved with any of my Calculated Line plays. These are what they are for a reason. They are purely mathematical formulations that attempt to predict future outcomes based on numerical data such as power rankings, strength of schedule, margin of victory, margin of defeat, and I even throw ELO Chess in there just to keep the numbers down to earth so to speak. But two trends stick out in this game along with a couple motivational factors, now keep in mind that you a hearing the true handicapper in me reverting back to his original form.

1. Michigan is 1-7 ATS as road favorites of 7 points or less since 1999 but,
2. Conversely, Minnesota is 6-13 ATS as a flat out underdog since
1999

Both teams always struggle ATS versus their conference. Minnesota, not taking anything away from beating PENN STATE on the road, hasn't really played anyone of Michigan's caliber.

Not one Senior on Michigan has ever lost to Minnesota and once again, conversely, not one Senior on Minnesota has ever beaten Michigan. If Minnesota comes out with confidence, which they have with the way they have been beating team, they will catch Michigan off-guard. You have to be thinking that a lot of football players on this Michigan squad are expecting to win like they have for the past 14+?? years versus this team. What I'm trying to say is Minnesota might be a little more "up" for this one in front of a sellout crowd on National TV with what just might be the loudest home field advantage in CFB. Carrier Dome excluded.
It should be a good game to watch and maybe we'll get those 3 points and have a play.
2. Cover

 

[Mick Onofrio]

And Climbing...

And Climbing...

Minn +2.5 at:
Rock
JAG
MVP
Infinity
BETTOR'S TRUST
BlueGrass
BOF

Definately will hit 3 and there is a possibility it will get to 3.5

 

[steelersal]

:clap: Great stuff!! I really appreciate your hard work.:142hail:

 

[Mick Onofrio]

still climbing

still climbing

Minnesota +3 (-115) Betonsports