October HSF Treats & D I & II stuff...

[Riff-Raff]

Record to Date:

HSF Degen: 22-6 (+37.2 units)

FCS Plays: 40-30 (-6.2 units)

NCAAF Div 1-A: 42-42-3 (-9.4 units)
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*So a buddy asked me to post my HSF plays a little earlier in the week, which I will try, but sometimes I need to wait to check injuries, etc..... I do plan on scaling back on the write-ups as I need more time for College capping, although my new FBS power ratings kick in as conference games begin.... I'm not saying I have found the holy grail but the numbers to identify games quicker that are strong possibilities saves me oodles of time, which is a nice change...

**Good Luck to anyone playing tonight's D1 game... I'm passing on all Sun Belt games during the week as the teams are too schizophrenic for my tastes...


HSF Plays:

N Allegheny -12' Penn Hills (53)

So we shift attention to the east and PA with 2 teams vying for the WPIAL 6A Northern 7 Conference Crown.. Penn Hills Indians travel to Pittsburgh land with a fairly new HC Jon LeDonne trying to steer a program that has a talent-rich roster, spear-headed by two top flight D1 recruits and a handful of athletes that are being sought by FCS schools... HC LeDonne came over from conference foe Shaler Area where he was 2-27 in three years and was 0-10 last year..... Which hardly inspires confidence....QB Hollis Mathis (Jr) takes over the reigns from departed 2, 300 yards passer Cam Tarrant... Mathis has garnered interest from Howard University and other ears are perking as he is 62 of 108 w/ 1,088 w/12 TDs in the first 5 games...... The offense is averaging 32.8 points per game, scoring 197 points thus far and allows 116, which breaks down to 19.3 ppg..... Indians are ranked #31 in PA and #15 in 6A Div..... Last won League in 2014.....In 2016, they were 4-6 and lost to N Allegheny 28-21....Currently, Indians are 5-1 and looking to continue their winning ways... Sr WR Julian Majors (6'2" 180 lbs) had 31 catches ly for 433 yards w/7 tds in 8 games is the regions most coveted wide-out and has multiple offers, but committed to Michigan St..His problem this year is his health (has been nursing a leg injury which has limited his PT) as it did ly... The backfield is loaded with a trio of RBs sharing the work load... RB Sr Jaquay Sears leads team with 229 yards on 29 carries w/4 TDs... RB Terry "Tank" Smith has 215 yards on 44 carries w/3 TDs (he lead the team ly in scoring w/8 TDs, rushing for 436 yards with 215 receiving yards out of the back field).... Tim Smith is the 3rd option who had 385 yards and 170 receiving yards w/5 TDs. Indians had the 5th best offense in 6A last season, however, the D surrendered 30 ppg...

N Allegheny Tigers come in at 4-2 ranked #32 in the state and #16 in Div 6A... They have scored 195 points on the season and only allowed 90 (15 ppg).... The program has a history of winning (won League in 2015, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006)...Won state in 2012 4A and 2010....In last year's playoffs, the Tigers scored with no time remaining on the clock on the last play but the game tieing PAT was blocked by Seneca Valley, ending the campaign...... Tigers average 248.3 yards per game rushing... Only passing for 132. 3 ypg... Sr QB Luke Trueman (5'11" 175 lbs) has been a backup the past 2 years and in that time rushed for over 350 yards rushing showing his dual threat capability.... However in last week's game Trueman connected on 11 of 17 passes for 242 yards w/3 TDs and also ran for a team high 114 yards...... Blocking for Trueman and leading the offense is Sr O-lineman OT (6'6" 280 lbs) Derek Devine is heading to Virginia... The Oline is a strength that returns most of the line that opened holes that produced 275 yards rushing per game and a total of 61 TDs in 2016... TE Canyon Tuman (Sr 6'6" 280 lbs) is the son of former Steelers TE J Tuman, last year he only caught 4 catches for 59 yards w/1 TD... This year's numbers should be much improved as the offense will feature him more.... Jr. Fullback Ben Maenza has 202 yards w/6 TDs so far and is a punishing back (his brother was last year's Class 6A Player of the Year (QB Ethan Maenza).... Sr RB Turner White (6'0" 175 lbs) averages 93.3 ypg couple of weeks ago he had 161 yards and 1/TD on 28 carries (besides rush, he has great hands and was 2016 2nd leading receiver)...WR Joey Porter Jr caught 21 passes for 403 yards w/10 TDs last year at Cardinal Wuerl North Catholic (If you recognize the name, his pops is J Porter, a LB of the Pittsburgh Steelers (retired) but currently coaching LBs for the Steelers organization)... JR. transferred over the summer.... Another transfer is WR John Vardzel (Sr 5'11" 170 lbs) came from South Carolina where he had 40 catches for 586 yards w/8 TDs (his brother plays at Pittsburgh U as a Wide-out) He has offers currently from Georgetown... Another lineman, Elijah Boyd has a offer from Temple U... Some players play both ways for N Allegheny.....

HC Art Waller is in his 13th season with the Black and Gold.... His career record 180-54 and has compiled 3 State Crowns in his overall 21st season..... NA beat Shaler Area 55-7 Penn won 34-7.......against Butler NA won 29-7 Penn won 54-21......Both teams want to run (although NA is a bit more adept at it).... Interestingly, these two are almost identical in the Ranking.... NA opened at -10' and is now up to -12'......Penn has their fair share of athletes in to compete in this one.... Last year's game was a 28-21 victory for the Tigers, but if Hills are going to upset the apple cart it would be in this game....

I played 2 UNITS on Penn Hills +12' and 2 Units on the Under 53 WIN/WIN on both

Back with 2 other HSF

 

[Riff-Raff]

Game 2:

Eastside Catholic -12' O'Dea (50')

Two undefeated teams at 5-0...Eastside Catholic Crusaders are #5 of WA most dominant programs since 2006....HC Jeremy Thielbahr is in his 7th year and has been a productive Field General that his players respect.... His high school Alma Mater offered him the HC job in Sandpoint, Idaho but he turned it down to see the fruits of success from his hard work.... Crusaders won State at the 3A level in 2014 & 2015, and was heading for another until losing 30-27 to Kamiakin.... This year's version is Ranked #163 Nationally, #2 in WA, and #1 in Div 3A... Obviously the expectations are sky high this year........ The team is averaging 42 ppg while allowing 93 points in 5 games.... The team throws for 292.3 ypg average while rushing for 117.3 ypg average.... The team has played a fairly loaded schedule and won a triple OT thriller against 4A State Power Gonzaga Prep (41-40)

Sr QB Zach Lewis (6'0" 200 lbs) is a gifted play caller, he totals 300.8 yards of offense per game... Last year, he had 3,425 yards w/35 Tds.. His weakness was 10 picks ly..... His #1 target this year is Blue Chip 4 Star WR Gee Scott Jr (Soph... Offers to UCLA, Utah and Oregon).... Soph RB Gio Ursino (5'8" 175 lbs) is picked to replace the departed 1,000 rusher Tyler Folkes (19 Tds) The Soph RB is deceptive and already is averaging 86.3 ypg........2 top prospects are OL Brody McKnight (6'3" 300 lbs) looks like Montana St...... And TE Hunter Bryant (6'3" 230 lbs) heading to Washington.... WR Marcus Stoebner (Sr 6'0" 195 lbs) had 27 receptions for 475 yards w/2 TDs last season (has started fielding offers from D1 schools)...... There is talent throughout the roster and perhaps the biggest strength is a Defense that returns 10 starters from ly

The O'Dea "Fighting Irish" are Ranked #369 Nationally, #4 WA, and #2 in 3A.... They have scored a total 193 points (averaging 38.6 ppg) while allowing 34 points combined.... In 2016, Irish were 13-1 (lost state championship 14-7 to Kamiakin...
In 2015, 7-3 (lost to Eastside 42-14) ....2014, 9-2 (Lost to Eastside 26-20....2013, 12-1 (Beat Eastside 63-45...but lost to Eastside in the playoffs 28-16)....Actually, O'Dea owns the rivalry record 9-5 over EC.... The program sits at #12 on Top 15 most dominant WA HSF programs...

HC Monte Kohler has been at the helm since 1985...He has lead his teams to 3 State Championships, 9 State Championship games, 24 Metro League Titles and 30 State Tournament Appearances... He is a respected legend..... This year's squad averages 344.8 ypg while averaging a measly 77.2 pass yardage for a combined 422 of total offens...... His biggest star is RB Jamyn Patu (Sr 6'0" 195 lbs) who will get the majority of the carries, averaging 134 yards per game (against Roosevelt he was 152 yards w/3 TDs) (against Skyline he was 157 yards w/2 tds on 16 carries) (against Lincoln he was 140 yards w/1 TD) described as a bruising runner, he is uncommitted, ly he had 1,596 yards w/14 TDs (8.6 ypc) In 2 playoff games ly he had 403 yards (I think you get the point and see what this team wants to do offensively..... QB Jr Emonte Scott (6'2" 185 lbs) has good size for a QB but isn't asked to do much through the air (54.6 pass yards per game) although he will run with the football......The Irish return plenty of talent that made it to the State Final... DT Doug Russell anchors a big D line (going to Hawaii) and LB Hunter Franco at 5'10" 200 lbs is uncommitted but many offers.... They have their share of D1 talent too...

So what's going to happen? I'm not sure but 12' points is way too many points to a team that beat Eastside ly 20-17.....Eastside Catholic does return 10 D starters here and with the mindset of both coaches sticking to an old school game plan I like the total to stay Under comfortably......These are the #1 & #2 schools in their Division and are almost identical in the state ranks... In the 1 common opponent.. O'Dea beat Skyline 38-7 and EC won 49-21.....These two know each other well....

Bet 2 UNITS on the Under 50'..WIN 3 units on O'Dea +12'... LOSS (21-7 final score ..*Really like both of these!

 

[Riff-Raff]

Game 3 HSF:

Rancho Cucamonga -10' Upland (53)

Cucamonga and Upland are another pair of undefeated heading into Friday's showdown... Rancho Cucamonga has had a lot of success and has a Dynasty record of 121-47....Ranked #31 in the Nation, #6 in CA, #5 in the southern section also #5 in Section Div...The Cougars won State in 2008 and won League Titles in 2016, 2013, 2010, and 2008... The offense averages 37.4 ppg, and has scored 187 points in 5 games while allowing 42 on D... The Cougars average 252.4 yards per game passing and 143.6 yards per game rushing...... The QB (Sr 6'0" 175 lbs) Nick Acosta has completed 65% of his passes for 1,136 yards w/9 TDs and 2 INts, last year he had 2,288 yards on 156 catches of 256 att w/27 TDs.... Last year he was Baseline League All-League select (2nd Team All Inland Valley)... He isn't a real big guy and his physical stature has given D1 Power Programs pause, but he's smart (4.2 GPA) and has attracted the attention of the Ivy League Schools..... Complimenting Acosta in the backfield is RB Sean Dollars (Jr 5'10" 185 lbs) currently has produced 442 yards on 44 carries (11.2 ypc) He's ranked #5 at his position (43rd nationally) and has many D1 offers... He's taking the place of RB/CB Jay long Redd who rushed for 1,693 yards w/25 TDs (the Inland Valley Player of the Year)... Joining Dollars is RB (Sr 5'10" 185 lbs) J Alexander, who averages 60.4 ypg.... Alexander and Dollars make up the best RB tandem in school history....DB/WR Jr Jeremy Cridell (5'6" 180 lbs) has multiple offers from Schools like USC, UCLA, Nebraska and Alabama) he might be the best player in the Class of 2019....the Cougars Defense is very good only giving up 7 points in the last 3 (including last 2 shut outs)..... The biggest concern is youth... Cougars only return 3 Defensive Starters and 2 Offensive (one being QB Acosta)..

Upland Highlanders/Scots are also 5-0 and have a very active offense averaging 46.8 ppg having totaled 234 points thus far and allows 63.....They are Ranked #63 in the Nation, #14 in CA, and #12 in South Section, #1 in Sectional Div.... They were spanked last year to Cucamonga 47-10....In 2016 they were 6-5, in 2015 8-4 (Beat Rancho 31-21) and in 2014, 10-3 (beat Rancho 28-10.......QB Jr David Baldwin (6-4" 210 lbs) is an imposing figure... He averaged 235 yards per game and has passed for 1,175 yards w/18 TDs w/1 pick.... His Twitter handle is "The Franchise" and against Claremont he passed for 6 TDs.... Jr RB Cameron Davis (6'0" 180 lbs) is averaging 80 rush yards a game (starting to get D1 interest).... The Scots can move the ball and average a total of 486.4 yards per game... The Defense is strong and a Soph LB Justin Flowe is the Top Ranked LB in the country for the Class of 2020.....

Despite Rancho pitching 2 shut outs, I expect the potent offensive attack of the Scots to put up ample points on the board.... When you have built a program like the Cougars, you simply reload with talent... Both teams are very balanced on offense.... Have to remember that Rancho is very young and inexperienced... While last years team went deep into the playoffs (got upended by Power Mater Dei but still put up 21 points).... This isn't the same team.... Some of Rancho Defense success has come from somewhat inferior competition...... If any year another Inland Empire team wants to make a statement against the Cougars it would be this Upland teams time... It doesn't hurt the Scots have had 2 weeks to prepare (bye last week)..... I wouldn't be surprised with an outright W here but I'll gladly take the points... And the OVER..

2 units on Upland +10' points over Rancho Cucamonga.....WIN
. 3 units on the Over 53 .. PUSH

Will post FCS plays tomorrow.. Gl

 

[Riff-Raff]

Thursday:

Alcorn St - 12 over Alabama St... 4 units ... WINNA *Comes out as a strong power play on my new FCS ranking..... Really like what Fred McNair has done with this offense and the future is bright as the injury bug is down this year (last year injuries took its toll, but Braves still won SWAC East... They are fav to get back to the SWAC Title game.... WR Warford is having a productive year, also with Special Teams returning punts and kickoffs.
(2015 Newcomer of the Year) but injury sidelined 2016....QB Lennoris Footman is having a great year (took over for starter John Gibbs Jr last season when he went down with a foot injury.... Footman ended up rushing for 1,023 yards w/11 TDs and passed for 1,106 yards with 14 TDs..... Footman is now #8 All-time in passing TDs (29) & Rush Yards 1,774 *A dual threat nightmare for opposition... He is 10th on All-time passing yards w/3,545 yards... Leads SWAC in passing (234.8 ypg) and total offense (287.4 ypg).....

RB Delance Turner leads SWAC and is Top 5 FCS in yards per carry with 8.6 ypc and leads conference in rushing 111.8 ypg w/6 TDs.... In a 48-31 win against Southern he had 272 yards rushing (2nd most in school history) (had a 88 yard td... Longest in School History).. The D secondary is strong.... The O-Line is a strength... The offense averages 27.75 ppg (excluding the romp against Miles College) Overall, Braves rank 1st in SWAC scoring w/31.8 ppg with total offense averaging 452.8 ypg.....

Alabama St was 4-7 in 2016 (3-6 SWAC) The team returned 13 starters (7 off / 6 Def)... HC Brian Jenkins 10-12 in 2 seasons... He did have tremendous success at Bethune-cookman (56-26 overall).... Transfer QB Pearson came over from Arkansas St but hasn't been the answer... He lost 5 All-SWAC Seniors... The offense is only averaging a dismal 6.75 ppg.... (including 6 points to Tuskegee.... They were picked to finish 2nd in SWAC behind Alcorn St, however, that's looking like a pipe dream...

The 0-4 start for Alabama St doesn't appear to be getting any better... Alcorn offense should run and hide here... Granted Braves D hasn't been too impressive, but it shouldn't matter here... Lay the Chalk...


Louisville / NC St Under 65.....3 units ...WINNA Gl

 

[Subcloser]

May have some decent inside info late tomorrow afternoon on the Upland game...Pretty close to their athletic trainer

 

[Riff-Raff]

May have some decent inside info late tomorrow afternoon on the Upland game...Pretty close to their athletic trainer

Would love to hear what someone close to the program thinks about this game.... My buddy always has the inside scoop on Trinity League games but admits the Inland Empire is sometimes difficult to get up to date info.... Rancho actually surprised a few people ly by putting up points against Mater Dei (it was unheard of (lol)

 

[Subcloser]

Would love to hear what someone close to the program thinks about this game.... My buddy always has the inside scoop on Trinity League games but admits the Inland Empire is sometimes difficult to get up to date info.... Rancho actually surprised a few people ly by putting up points against Mater Dei (it was unheard of (lol)

I trust this source (she plays women's pro football, also gambles)...I spoke with her on Tuesday and she said she was going to get back to me Friday...we will see

 

[Subcloser]

Spoke with my contact from Upland High...she said the defensive coaches seem to think they can keep it within 2 tds but admitted they have to play almost perfect to win...they feel very strongly about the game being a shootout...I may add a little to the over

 

[Riff-Raff]

Add 1 for Friday...

Boise /BYU OVER 47......3 units..LOSS.. CONTRARIAN MY ASS .. *Yes I know the stats tend to favor a Under here and perhaps a Boise cover but I was pleased with the Cougars run game against Utah St and think think we could see more of the same tonight.... Boise has also struggled, but the offense hasn't been atrocious and think they can pass the ball effectively.. At least I hope so.... Cougs run game last week went over 200 yards and I think with a True Redshirt starting, that they will need to continue to pound the ball..... Good possibility of these teams coughing up the football which could lead to decent field position.

Neither team has done much ATS (Cougs haven't covered the spread yet and Boise is like 1-2-1 ATS.. Boise averaging nearly 30 ppg, however, Cougs will need a better effort than their season average 12.6 ppg... (they did get 24 last week)...

Basically boils down to a contrarian play... *Actually made my wager early in the week when line opened at 44.....now at 47, so if the play screams Under, then why has the line gone up? Gluck

 

[Riff-Raff]

Spoke with my contact from Upland High...she said the defensive coaches seem to think they can keep it within 2 tds but admitted they have to play almost perfect to win...they feel very strongly about the game being a shootout...I may add a little to the over

The OVER has been my strongest play... Both D are fairly young and both offenses can score often... The total seems about 10 too low..*I do like this LB for Upland (J Flowe is top ranked LB in the country as a Sophomore)... I think the total is skeweddue to 2 shut outs and only allowing 7 points by Cucamonga in last 3......those teams were nowhere near the offensive power that this young D will see tonight by Scots.....

*Have some strong plays in FCS with my new power ratings that only comes into play when we get to October (Last night Alcorn was a play.. Nothing tonight though) Will post my plays tonight... I will compare to what you have... Good Luck Brother!

 

[Riff-Raff]

2 Div 3 plays manana......

*Don't usually post Div 3 games.... But when your a degenerate.... Everything goes... :mj07:

Bloomsburg +7..over Kutztown.. 2 units (-120)
*Huskies are 4-1 (2-0 PSAC East).. Your giving me 7 points at home (Redman Stadium) where Huskies have won 11 straight?..Bloomsburg leads series 47-22 all-time... Last year, Kutztown won 34-24...Huskies are 15-1-1 in Bloomsburg since 1982....Last season win by Kutztown was its first since 2011. (2nd in last 20).... Neither team turns the ball over, but curiously are the 2 top flagged teams in the Country... Last week, Redshirt Soph Alex Gooden rushed for 164 yards on 18 carries... Bloomsburg ran for 269 yards w/4 TDs... The Defense is efficient holding only 21 first downs on opponents 69 3rd down trys... (ranked 21st in country)..

Kutztown at 3-2 (1-1 PSAC East)..
Golden Bears lost last week 27-21 to W Chester, rushing for a season low 60 yards (granted held W Chester to 56 yards on the ground)... Actually picked to finish 2nd in the East (Huskies picked to finish 4th)...Huskies have to account for RB Craig Reynolds who is 3rd in PSAC in all-purpose yards (974 yards... He is 377 yards rush w/4 TDs and 336 yards receiving w/5 TDs.... QB DiGalbo completed 57.2 % of his passes for 1,048 yards w/11 TDs (only 2 Ints) also has 192 yards on the ground w/3 TDs.... The Defense is formidable hawking forced 13 turn-over.. W/9 picks.....

Bears had its 11 game PSAC East win streak snapped last week.... Huskies seem to have Golden Bears number at home, so giving a TD just feels right..


Indiana (PA) - 12' over California (64')

3 unit on the Over 64'....*Crimson Hawks returns 15 starters from last years NCAA playoffs team... Currently Ranked #4 in Div2.... Vulcans ranked #16 (were ranked as high as #5 until they lost last week to Slippery Rock in OT 44-47)...Hawks return 7 Starters on an offense that scored 46.2 ppg and total 489.6 yards pg... Currently sitting at 5-0...This is the 9th Annual Coal Bowl in which they are trying to avenge last year's loss 28-31....

Vulcsns are 4-1 (1-1 PSAC West) It's a big play offense with 7 plays last week that went at least 20+ yards... This Coal Bowl features 2 of the most efficient Qbs in Div 3...Hawks QB Lenny Williams is the country's active leader with a 167.5 efficiency rating with only 7 INTs in 462 pass attempts... Cal QB M Keir ranks 5th in the Nation with 159.56 pass efficiency with 50 Tds and 15 INTs on 548 attempts...

IUP is one of the hottest teams in Div 3...outscoring opponents by average 41 points in last 3 weeks, including last week's 57-14 at Seton Hill... This is the 2nd straight Coal Bowl that both teams enter in Top 25 of D3... Cal won both of those meetings 26-24 in 2012....and 31--28 in 2016...Cal has owned the Coal Bowl Series... Traditionally its a low scoring rivalry; the average game score between 2010-2015 was 19-17 average... In two meetings last year the average score was 38-26...IUP ranks 6th in D3 with 283.6 rush yards per game.. In Hawks last 3 games they average 274.7 rush yards and scored 7 rush Tds. QB Lenny Williams has a 68.3% accuracy... Contrarily, Cal D is 6th worst in the country allowing 303 yards per game.... This is the highest ranked Hawk team since 2001...Crimson Hawks have a 14 game Home Win Streak outscoring opponents 565 to 231(40.4 to 16.5 points...

This game smells of a high scoring affair... Hawks run a spread attack now... Big Plays and Speedy Offense means more attempts and downs... QB L Williams is 22-3 as a starter... He's one of the best the programs history... It's his 3rd year as a starter (2 Time Harlon Hill Award Nominee given to the best player in D3.... He holds several school records and will no doubt leave school with several more... He is a dual threat QB that averages 130 rush yards per game... He's averaged 8.3 yards per rush against Vulcans lifetime... His O Line has only given up 3 sacks in 3 games...... Despite the Vulcans falling to 16th ranked, the offense is capable of lighting up the scoreboard...and with 2 highly efficient offenses I think this one goes over safely....

 

[Riff-Raff]

FCS Power Plays...

As always (-120)

1. Indiana St +27'.....3 units

2. Maine /Villanova OVER 37....4 units

3. Princeton -24......3 units

4. Monmouth +3.....3 units

5. Brown -21.......3 units

6. Harvard -14.....4 units

7. Yale /Dartmouth OVER 46.....4 units

8. Samford -35.........5 units

9. W. Carolina +3.......5 units

*Shall see how all this plays out.... Not exactly sure why my ratings spit out so many Ivy League Plays.. Weird.. Especially since their body of work hasn't caught up to the other D2...

 

[Riff-Raff]

Still kicking myself for that damn BYU total...

EMU +15.......3 units

Akron -6.......3 units

Marshall -15.....4 units

Northwestern/Penn St OVER 50'.....5 units

Temple -2.....4 units

Virginia Tech -16'.......3 units

Maryland +31...... 4 units

Clemson - 21........5 units

W. Kentucky - 18....3 units

Ul Lafayette/Idaho OVER 62....10 units

Tulane - 3'........3 units

Navy/Air Force OVER 51......10 units

USC -33....3 units

Let's see how these shake out....