Odds and Ends

[lostinamerica]

As of 11/18/08:

NCAA YTD: 36-36 (+0.20*)
NFL YTD: 17-12 (+4.50*)



ODDS and ENDS:

Tonight, while I'm following any games and capping this weekend's games, I'll by editing this post with some Odds and Ends observations on "my" season.

(1) When family and friends ask me how my gambling is going, my stock answer for a long time has pretty much been, "I win at golf and I tread water at football - I spend way too much time at both, but I enjoy it - and I really am slightly ahead." I'm really disappointed that it looks like this will be my first season just under the break even point with my plays in the golf forum; even a surge to close for a healthy football profit won't compensate for that underachieving.

(2) Just off the top of my head, this year I'm about 0-4 on NCAA plays posted by Tuesday or earlier (i.e., plays that seemed to really stand out for some rerason or another), and about 3-0 on NFL plays similarly posted early in the week. Most importantly, I think I'm about 6-1, or even better, on any posted plays of more than 1*. And I was completely out of my routine of "due diligence" throughout October and into November in connection with a lengthy vacation to California and while following the political season, and I'm very satisfied with the number of solid angles I've been able to latch onto with my trigger finger during the season, while employing my ever present money management.

(3) Two years ago, my plays on Pac-10 teams stood out. Last year, my plays on Pac-10 teams sucked. This year, my plays on Big 10 games have been my bread and butter . . . From early in the season I've had a decent read on Mississippi, North Carolina, Iowa, Notre Dame, Illinois and Washington State, among others, and been not so good with my reads on Clemson, Pittsburgh, Duke and Rutgers, among others.

(4) Anyone who thought the Packers would not be a tough team this year were missing the obvious from last year . . . There has never been a doubt that Ryan Grant has the reads and bursts that make him a perfect fit for the Packs zone blocking schemes . . . Last year it was great to have the surest tackling team in a decade, with great assignment discipline and depth thrown in, and a full complement of playmakers. This year, the defense started the season with the right ideas on adding some new aggressive blitz packages, but also started with less depth, and have regressed with average at best tackling, so I had and continue to have more issues about the level of play of that defense in December than I ever held about the running game . . . Last year the Pack had a 13-3 type season when it came to injuries; this year has had a substantial quota of setbacks, but the Pack is looking up to the challenge . . . And while the Tennessee story has emerged with the Giants, and others are laying some claims (Arizona, no Tom Brady, even Carolina), there was no better story over the first half of the season than Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Stay healthy bud, and the "Wow" will continue to exceed the insufficient attention being given . . . I defy anyone to quote something unfair I've ever said about Favre; it can't be done. That being said, I have no reservations in saying that at this point in the season, I woud give my vote to Aaron Rodgers over Favre as league MVP, if they were the nominees. Rodger's play will have just about single-handedly required revisiting the lost debate (in this cap era) about the best ways to develop a QB. Good stuff, Aaron. Not that Favre hasn't earned high marks for delivering everything the Jets needed from him . . . It's been righteous to see the Packers do as good of job as any team over the last 16 years in developing their players.



GL


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2003-2008 YTD 11/18/08) All Games: 473-464 (-25.98*)

2008 NCAA Regular Season YTD (11/18/08): 36-36 (+0.20*)

2007 NCAA Regular Season: 27-37 (-13.95*)
2007-2008 NCAA Bowl Season: 6-7 (-2.40*)

2006 NCAA Regular Season: 43-39 (+0.26*)
2006-2007 NCAA Bowl Season: 8-7 (+0.00*)

2005 NCAA Regular Season: 44-40 (-0.33*)
2005-2006 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-8 (-1.20*)

2004 NCAA Regular Season: 55-49 (+3.58*)
2004-2005 NCAA Bowl Season: 5-8 (-4.96*)

2003 NCAA Regular Season: 53-43 (+5.35*)
2003-2004 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-7 (-0.42*)


2008 NFL Regular Season YTD (11/18/08): 17-12 (+4.50*)

2007 NFL Regular Season: 25-33 (-10.70*)
2007-2008 NFL Post Season: 6-5 (+0.35*)

2006 NFL Regular Season: 19-33 (-16.70*)
2006-2007 NFL Post Season: 7-5 (+1.35*)
2006 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2005 NFL Regular Season: 40-29 (+7.40*)
2005-2006 NFL Post Season: 6-3 (+3.17*)
2005 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2004 NFL Regular Season: 46-46 (-0.95*)
2004-2005 NFL Postseason: 7-3 (+5.72*)
2004 NFLX: 1-0 (+1.00*)

2003 NFL Regular Season: 49-51 (-4.94*)
2003-2004 NFL Post Season: 7-4 (+3.09*)
2003 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00*)

 

[lostinamerica]

Buffalo(+3') over Bowling Green (1*)
- - Lotsa love from lotsa cappers for Turner Gill getting his troops to respond in their very capable fashion.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

It might have been a minor miracle, but Turner Gill's wagering value just went up again.


Iowa(-6) over Minnesota (1*)
- - Ferentz is 1-9 ATS in the Iowa State rivalry, and 7-2 ATS in the Minnesota rivalry. This is a terrible matchup for the OL of Minnesota, and not a good spot for any team on the "being exposed" gauntlet they've just come through. This is not a slow Iowa team, and the carpet will let them show that as well. Once again the Hawkeyes will have brought their lunchpails to work all week, and will deliver the exclamation point on a season that's has been very deserved and could only have been better.


Texas Tech(+7) over Oklahoma (1*)
- - The Red Raiders are on some level of out of the ordinary this year. With a week off, Oklahoma will have their hands full.

Washington(-6') over Washington State (1*)
- - Enough sharps have voiced their opinion on a winless team being favored by more than a touchdown on the road in a rivalry game. My money says these teams are not on a par, and Ty Willingham will manage to have a very motivated team under his saddle.

Vanderbilt(-3) over Tennessee (1*)
- - Or not.


Leans:

Arkansas(-1')
Stanford(+8')
Iowa State(+9')
Notre Dame(-19')


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

North Carolina(-11) over North Carolina State (1*)
- - I'll trust my stuff and go contrarian on this one.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Arkansas(-2') over Mississippi State (1*)

Notre Dame(-19') over Syracuse (1*)

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

What a fuckin' train wreck.

NCAA YTD: 38-42 (-4.20*)
NFL YTD: 20-14 (+5.30*)

This year, my plays on Big 10 games have been my bread and butter.

There were 5 Big Ten matchups to close the season. All 5 were ATS blowouts. I had the right side in all 5. If I wasn't brain dead, I would have taken a stand and played them all for 1.5*. Instead, I get my ass handed to me with a 2-6 pile of crap. :00x4 . . . And I'm always out of my capping routine over Thanksgiving week, and the teams are out of their routines, and I've never had much success this week, so now I've got that to look forward to.


GL

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http://www.hulu.com/watch/44454/saturday-night-live-joe-biden-cold-open

Joe Biden on SNL: " You don't think I can give a train wreck interview to Katie Couric? Just name the time and the place, and Joe Biden will bring the train."