Odds and Ends

[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 24-17 (+5.24*)
NFL YTD: 8-9 (-2.17*)
Top Plays (included above): 1-1 (-0.15*)


Michigan State(+1) over Iowa (1*)

- - My take from last week:

Iowa(-1) over Minnesota (1*)
Minnesota(Un21') (1*)
- - There are probably better games out there, but I've got an opinion and will take a stand. Iowa is still a work in progress but from Day #1 has definitely been making the strides you look for in a team . . . The way to gash Iowa is to spread the field by getting your playmakers in space by quickness and design. While Minnesota is stout on both sides of the ball, their lumbering 4 rushing TD QB with no aerial component is not going to strike any fear in the Hawkeyes . . . Definitely shaping up as a hard hitting border war, and the line should be a tossup that goes under the number, but if anyone takes charge in this Big Ten lid lifter at Kinnick North, I like my chances with the Hawkeyes.

- - Iowa has been on a superb run, more or less, winning two huge rivalry games and by 59-3 after a seven game drought . . . Rudock at QB has done everything you could have asked for, and Weisman at RB everything you hoped for. Seemingly out of nowhere, a real cast of receiving targets are emerging. The playbook in the second year under the OC and DC have clearly stepped it up beyond the vanilla fingerprints of Ferentz, including some fairly polished no huddle offense, and multiple blitzes and coverages on defense. They still can't get to the QB or give solid protection to their QB, and although both areas can improve with this team, they seem the primary deficiencies, unless it's the troublesome breakdowns in pass coverage (by comparison, the defense has stepped it up this season in not getting unduly burned when plays start breaking down).

- - Michigan State is not the perfect club to exploit the Hawkeyes, and there is a full catalog of recent slugfests in this rivalry extending back to the days of Nick Saban. But it's a tough spot for Iowa to get the toughest foe they have faced to date. Iowa seems more likely than not to land a signature win this season, but I wouldn't say this Saturday lines up righteously as that big spot whether they were playing Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State, or you name it.

- - Simply put, two weeks off after a bitter loss to Notre Dame (along with revenge from a Double OT loss in 2012 against this opponent) seems to make Michigan State the right side in their Big Ten lid lifter; no matter what I read or hear around here in the days ahead, it shouldn't sway me away from that fundamental.


ODDS and ENDS:

- - Shouldn't Arkansas be able to score points with Florida, this week and most weeks?

- - Illinois is as big of a surprise as any team this year, and Wisconsin hired an excellent coach.

- - In the biggest game of the week, I guess I'll be letting Washington carry my cash.

- - ASU has to be up for Notre Dame at Jerry's World, and they should make plenty of plays late to be the right side.

- - Northwestern IMO will be relentless as a live dog; Vanderbilt is going to have their hands full with this Missouri squad in a conference road game; UCLA looks like my best candidate to carry my cash on Thursday; and I could figure out the Louisville vs. Kentucky line (but I played Louisville anyway), but I can't figure out the Clemson vs. Syracuse line.


GL

 

[redsfann]

Any thoughts on the game total of 38.5 in the Sparty/Iowa game?
I'll ask Hawkeye as well once he puts up a thread for this weeks games.
I was hoping for something in the 42 range and I'd be on the under, but this total seems too low.
Mixed weather reports right now for the Homecoming game--some say 60s, chance of rain and blustery, others 70s and fair.

 

[lostinamerica]

Hey redsfann, :toast:

I am certainly thinking there will be stretches in this game where points will be hard to come by, but like you I would find it hard to see a lot of value on the under when the number is 38'. My only strong opinion on this game is when I analyze the situational aspects.

I've heard the weather is gorgeous until some time Friday, then things may abruptly change.

You know it's Go Hawks!

GL

 

[#cruncher]

Any thoughts on the game total of 38.5 in the Sparty/Iowa game?
I'll ask Hawkeye as well once he puts up a thread for this weeks games.
I was hoping for something in the 42 range and I'd be on the under, but this total seems too low.
Mixed weather reports right now for the Homecoming game--some say 60s, chance of rain and blustery, others 70s and fair.

I saw the total at 42 at an off shore shop not long after the lines came out but it didn't last long. I'm not even so sure there was an incremental drop.

 

[kksuited]

ODDS and ENDS:

- - Shouldn't Arkansas be able to score points with Florida, this week and most weeks?

- - Illinois is as big of a surprise as any team this year, and Wisconsin hired an excellent coach.

- - In the biggest game of the week, I guess I'll be letting Washington carry my cash.

- - ASU has to be up for Notre Dame at Jerry's World, and they should make plenty of plays late to be the right side.

- - Northwestern IMO will be relentless as a live dog; Vanderbilt is going to have their hands full with this Missouri squad in a conference road game; UCLA looks like my best candidate to carry my cash on Thursday; and I could figure out the Louisville vs. Kentucky line (but I played Louisville anyway), but I can't figure out the Clemson vs. Syracuse line.

I don't think Arky is a very good football team, but we will see this week. A&M made them look ok, but they lost to Rutgers the week prior and had a 31-21 slugfest with Samford earlier in the year.

I like Illinois and NW. I think I agree with you on ND, but my system says that a no play, so I'm not playing it.

I think Stanford is the second most well coached team in America behind Bama.

 

[redsfann]

Hey redsfann, :toast:

I am certainly thinking there will be stretches in this game where points will be hard to come by, but like you I would find it hard to see a lot of value on the under when the number is 38'. My only strong opinion on this game is when I analyze the situational aspects.

I've heard the weather is gorgeous until some time Friday, then things may abruptly change.

You know it's Go Hawks!

GL

Thanks for your thoughts, lost....:toast:
Can't bring myself to play Sparty if I'm going to be in the stands Saturday.
Weatherman is still up in the air about the conditions for Saturday-- I've seen 50s and rain and 70 with a slight chance. I'll go prepared for anything-- it is Iowa after all--don't like the weather? Give it 15 minutes, it will change.....

GO HAWKS!!!

 

[lostinamerica]

The card is looking awfully full if I don't make some edits . . .

Maryland(+17) over Florida State (1*)
- - I believe Maryland is 2-21 SU vs. FSU all time, including 6 straight losses by 19ppg, and 0-11 in Tallahassee vs. FSU . . . Late last year Maryland was down to their 6th string QB (a linebacker) and had 25 yards of offense the first half vs. FSU. With a week to prepare, I expect HC Edsall will have his healthy charges giving a strong account of themselves in this ACC swan song.

GL

 

[smax]

Call me

 

[lostinamerica]

Stanford(-8') over Washington (1*)
- -

North Dakota State(-13)(-120) over Northern Iowa (1*)
- -

Oklahoma(-9') over TCU (1*)
- -

Baylor(-29) over West Virginia (1*)
- -

Oregon(-38) over Colorado (1*)
- -

Mississippi(-3) over Auburn (1*)
- -

East Carolina(-7)(-120) over Middle Tennessee State (1*)
- -

Washington State (-1')(-115) over California (1*)
- -

Arizona State(-6') over Notre Dame (1*)
- -

Missouri(-1) over Vanderbilt (1*)
- -

Arkansas(+13) over Florida (1*)
- -

Northwestern(+7)(-120) over Ohio State (1*)
- -

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Ohio State(-5)(2h) over Northwestern (1*)
- -

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Washington(+3')(2h) over Stanford (1*)
- - 6-7-1 for the day after the retarded final play debacle in the Northwestern game, with Stanford -8' pending. I'm hedging for a middle with Washington and going to bed.

GL