Off Day Chatter

[big papi]

i use wager
line.com

 

[Happy Hippo]

Had this discussion/argument with Hippo the other day. Illinois/Zona total. I see it at 136 and begging for over $$$. It suddenly drops to 134 (at more than 1 book!)and stays there for no more than 2minutes, then hops back up to 136.5:shrug:

Her logic was exactly what you described. IE: a sharp lays $10,000 on the under, only to swing the line 2 points, and plop $50,000 on the over? My question is why not just 'buy' the points? Has to be cheaper, no?

KC, can you cite any recent examples?

Thanks!


BTW, that Zona game went under but went into OT and the over hit.

This is what happened, but your numbers are backward. The line was around 134 almost the whole day, then right before tipoff it jumped to 136 (I immediately said watch the line is going to drop back down two points) and then it went back to 134. My thinking was someone pounded the over just to get two more points, and then layed their true larger bet on the under. If it had moved the way you said, then it would have been someone or group of someones trying to get a better line on the over.

And yes, everyone then proceeded to get screwed by overtime.

 

[tig3rs]

i use wager
line.com

figured that... haven't you noticed that it's a majority of the time that the favorites are usually the concensus? watch it for the next week, i assure you you'll realize that their numbers are from their contests and aren't worth anything. i like the Team Experts picks in the matchup pages on cov-ers. as the season goes on it picks people who have perfect and near perfect records for the teams matched up, but those can have bias in them as well... as said in saving private ryan "careful you step in the bullshit."

 

[big papi]

Yes I have noticed that but I am confident the favorites are usually the consensus regardless.