Being a former Tiger I follow Tenn. St. and the OVC closely. When the season started, I thought Murray St. was the class of the conference. I thought TSU would be middle of the pack with the possibility of overachieving in a sense if a few things fell into place. 1st and foremost they had to stay healthy, losing Bruce Price has hurt them early but they seem to becoming together. Someone not anticipated had to step up and contribute. The Tigers have always been one of the smaller teams and hadn't really had a dominating player in the middle since the back to back championship days of Carlos Rogers who led them to consecutive NCAA bids. They give up about 69 ppg defensively which is a bit inflated because when behind late they send teams to the free throw line. They have been a team that's hard to grasp. They just thumped old nemesis Austin Peay 80-58 on Mon. after losing to them to start the month off by 7. They also hit 9-21 3 point shot att. and if they duplicate that tonight then they have a realistic chance of getting the upset. One has to wonder what team will show up. Murray is far better than Austin Peay and can clinch the OVC regular season title outright tonight which can be a motivating factor on both sides. What hurts the Tigers most of all is turnovers. They just do not handle the ball well (15 turnovers a game) and free throw shooting (65% as a team). Murray Owns the all-time series like 33-10 but TSU is 5-0 ATS the last 5. They are also 8-3 this season at the Gentry Complex. Look for TSU to be led by the big 3, Wayne Arnold, Clarence Matthews who recorded a double-double with 18 points and career-high 19 rebounds the last time out, and Kareem Grant. The home crowd will be an advantage, but I think the Tigers stay close early and fade late. I see Murray St winning by about 6
Jax St. is a team that has been plagued by inconsistent play on defense. They currently sit 4th in the OVC at 10-7 and have won 7 of their last 10. EKU only 5-8 on the road and defeated Jax St. 86-78 early in the season so revenge will be heavily on the mind of the Gamecocks here. Jax St. can put points on the board yet they allow the opposition to shoot almost 50% from the floor. I like the Gamecocks at home and maybe to win by 10 as they create distance late. This Is the OVC however and anything can happen.
Samford has lost back to back games to Austin Peay and EKU (told ya anything can happen) but they are 12-5 in league play. AS dreadful as Morehead St. is (2-11 road) you have to think at some point a little pride will shine through. Personally this is a game I would pass on. No way in Hell Morehead St. wins, but they could back door.
Tennessee Tech -5 would be a game I would more likely make a play on. TT (9-3 at home) UTM (2-9 on the road) TT dominates in the all-time series 24-6. With all that being said, UTM comes into this match-up being the hottest team having won 5 in a row as opposed to TT who has lost 5 of their last 7. Something has to give. UTM has been on fire scoring about 80 ppg during that stretch and one the earlier match-up 88-78 so revenge big factor here especially getting ready for the OVC tourney. TT need to get they MOJO back. My play would be Tennessee Tech -5 but very cautiously. Strictly basing this on past results and trends.
Good Luck with your plays and hope this helped a little :toast:
