Oklahoma's odds change with Bradford out
In less than two quarters of action, the Oklahoma Sooners? season got flipped upside down. The injury to reigning Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford is forcing oddsmakers to adjust the Big 12 program?s odds.
The Sooners quarterback is recovering from a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder after he was driven into the ground on a clean hit by a BYU lineman late in the second quarter of the Cougar?s shocking upset.
One oddsmaker is comparing Bradford's value to his team to Tom Brady with New England Patriots.
?I think he?s worth about nine or 10 points,? says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker with Las Vegas Sports Consultants. ?It reminds me what we did with Brady last year.?
The Pats franchise quarterback went down with a season-ending knee injury last year in the team?s Week 1 win over the Chiefs. The books originally had Pats -10 in mind for the following week?s game against the Jets, but with Brady out and Matt Cassel in, the line closed at -1.
The Sooners play Idaho State next weekend, a game that won?t have a line because of the uneven scale. Idaho State, a Division 1-AA school, lost 50-3 to Arizona State over the weekend.
The real question comes into play the following week at home against Tulsa. If Bradford can?t play against the Golden Hurricane ? a strong possibility for a quarterback with a sore throwing shoulder ? the Sooners would be favored by 13 or 14 points instead of 21 or 24, according to Seba.
And of course Oklahoma fans know that Bradford isn?t the only significant Sooner banged up. Second-team All-American tight end Jermaine Gresham missed the season opener against BYU and his return date is unclear.
?[Bradford and Gresham] are not just necessarily for our team, but those are two tremendous players that have great futures,? Oklahoma offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson told the Associated Press on Sunday. ?We want to make sure their best interest is taken into consideration with what?s being done.?
The biggest impact of Bradford?s injury will be to Oklahoma?s over/under numbers. Seba says the team?s game totals should drop by 10 to 15 points, depending on who the opponent is, until No. 14 is back under center.
?I think their backup (Landry Jones) will be better,? Seba says. ?But you have to think they?re going to be more conservative with their game plan.?
Betting the over in Oklahoma games was close to a sure thing last season. Bradford was the driving force behind an offense that averaged 51 points per game and accumulated an 11-2 over/under record.
Jones is a redshirt freshman who hasn?t seen much time on the field playing behind Bradford. He?s protected by an offensive line that is going through a major transition.
Logic says the Sooners will turn to a more possession-dominant, run-orientated offensive strategy.
Oddsmakers didn?t think Bradford?s absence would require as drastic of an adjustment. Each book thought Bradford was worth about seven points to the spread and about the same on the over/under number.
Bettors who have futures bets on the Sooners to either win the Big 12 and/or win the National Championship shouldn?t rip up their tickets just yet.
If Bob Stoops can get Bradford back on the field in time for his team?s first conference game, (Oct. 10 vs. Baylor) he could still be in the hunt for another Big 12 title.
Still, there are many more ifs attached to Oklahoma?s season then there was Saturday morning.
Odds on the Sooners winning the Big 12 from +150 to +300 and made a similar move with its National Championship odds, dropping the team to +2500.
In less than two quarters of action, the Oklahoma Sooners? season got flipped upside down. The injury to reigning Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford is forcing oddsmakers to adjust the Big 12 program?s odds.
The Sooners quarterback is recovering from a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder after he was driven into the ground on a clean hit by a BYU lineman late in the second quarter of the Cougar?s shocking upset.
One oddsmaker is comparing Bradford's value to his team to Tom Brady with New England Patriots.
?I think he?s worth about nine or 10 points,? says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker with Las Vegas Sports Consultants. ?It reminds me what we did with Brady last year.?
The Pats franchise quarterback went down with a season-ending knee injury last year in the team?s Week 1 win over the Chiefs. The books originally had Pats -10 in mind for the following week?s game against the Jets, but with Brady out and Matt Cassel in, the line closed at -1.
The Sooners play Idaho State next weekend, a game that won?t have a line because of the uneven scale. Idaho State, a Division 1-AA school, lost 50-3 to Arizona State over the weekend.
The real question comes into play the following week at home against Tulsa. If Bradford can?t play against the Golden Hurricane ? a strong possibility for a quarterback with a sore throwing shoulder ? the Sooners would be favored by 13 or 14 points instead of 21 or 24, according to Seba.
And of course Oklahoma fans know that Bradford isn?t the only significant Sooner banged up. Second-team All-American tight end Jermaine Gresham missed the season opener against BYU and his return date is unclear.
?[Bradford and Gresham] are not just necessarily for our team, but those are two tremendous players that have great futures,? Oklahoma offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson told the Associated Press on Sunday. ?We want to make sure their best interest is taken into consideration with what?s being done.?
The biggest impact of Bradford?s injury will be to Oklahoma?s over/under numbers. Seba says the team?s game totals should drop by 10 to 15 points, depending on who the opponent is, until No. 14 is back under center.
?I think their backup (Landry Jones) will be better,? Seba says. ?But you have to think they?re going to be more conservative with their game plan.?
Betting the over in Oklahoma games was close to a sure thing last season. Bradford was the driving force behind an offense that averaged 51 points per game and accumulated an 11-2 over/under record.
Jones is a redshirt freshman who hasn?t seen much time on the field playing behind Bradford. He?s protected by an offensive line that is going through a major transition.
Logic says the Sooners will turn to a more possession-dominant, run-orientated offensive strategy.
Oddsmakers didn?t think Bradford?s absence would require as drastic of an adjustment. Each book thought Bradford was worth about seven points to the spread and about the same on the over/under number.
Bettors who have futures bets on the Sooners to either win the Big 12 and/or win the National Championship shouldn?t rip up their tickets just yet.
If Bob Stoops can get Bradford back on the field in time for his team?s first conference game, (Oct. 10 vs. Baylor) he could still be in the hunt for another Big 12 title.
Still, there are many more ifs attached to Oklahoma?s season then there was Saturday morning.
Odds on the Sooners winning the Big 12 from +150 to +300 and made a similar move with its National Championship odds, dropping the team to +2500.
