Ken Pomeroy (13-5 on UNCW games this season) projects a 79-65 Mason victory, gives UNCW a 14 percent chance of springing the upset.
UNCW?s formula for victory this season is fairly simple: play very efficient offense and be good enough on defense. The Seahawks followed this path against William & Mary on Saturday, scoring 1.11 points per possession, and allowing 1.08 PPP, an exorbitant number for a losing team in a CAA game. For example, here?s the PPP allowed by the other CAA winners on Saturday ? Hofstra (1.05), Mason (0.90), Delaware (0.90), Drexel (0.88), VCU (0.76).
Still, the Seahawks won on 8 of their 10 best offensive nights this season, all of which are better than average for a Division I team.
Opponent PPP W / L
Hofstra 1.19 W
Delaware 1.19 W
Toledo 1.16 L
Furman 1.14 W
Will & Mary 1.11 W
N?eastern 1.11 W
Wake Forest 1.10 L
Campbell 1.06 W
Illinois St. 1.02 W
Liberty 1.01 W
On the flip side, UNCW lost on its eight worst offensive nights.
That?s a dangerous formula to follow. Offense can be fickle. But it?s the only formula available to a team that?s 12th in the CAA and No. 280 nationally in defensive efficiency. I have confidence the combination of Jackson and Morales (who played 71 minutes vs. the Tribe) will help the Seahawks protect the wings, and the basket. This team probably won?t develop into a good defensive team, but it can improve to the point where it strings together enough stops to have a shot at winning games. Buzz Peterson was pleased with the team?s defensive intensity on Saturday.
What have the Seahawks done well in their eight victories this season? Just what you?d think, for the most part. Low turnover rate, good defensive rebounding and, overall, solid defense. No real mysteries there.
Morales is on a hot streak offensively. The coaches value his contributions when he?s not scoring. Yet, by being a threat to score in double figures he might make teams question the decision to double-team Keith Rendlman. Teams are already scared to give Adam Smith any room on the 3-point line, which opens up driving room for Smith and others.
CAA leader George Mason is a very talented team with the best post combo in the CAA ? Ryan Pearson and Mike Morrison, who combine for 27 points and 15 rebounds per night. Morrison shoots 61 percent. Pearson shoots 51 percent, and 36 percent behind-the-arc, where he?s made 15 this season. As the CAA Expanded Efficiency Standings show, the Patriots are the top offensive team.
The Patriots have posted staggering defensive numbers in conference ? no opponent has scored more than 0.90 points per trip ? however they?ve done so against four teams (Towson, Delaware, Georgia State and William & Mary) who aren?t exactly lighting up the scoreboard in conference games.
What Will Be Watching ?
The start ? Will the Seahawks be within reach at the Under-8 media timeout? The Patriots are explosive, and embrace an up-tempo style in their arena.
Freddie Jackson ? The UNCW freshman played well against William & Mary, but aggressive perimeter pressure isn?t part of the Tribe?s DNA. It is 10th in the CAA in conference games in forcing turnovers (15.3 TO rate). Mason, on the other hand, forces opponents to cough it up on 20.9 percent of trips. It also has elite on-ball defenders Andre Cornelius, and Bryon Allen, who has defended opposing point guards in the Mason games I?ve watched. Turnovers fuel fastbreaks which generate runs.
UNCW?s offensive rebounding ? Mason is susceptible on the defensive glass, allowing opponents to collect a second-chance opportunity on 38 percent of shots (12th in the CAA). This has been a strength for UNCW most of the season. It gets 34.5 percent of offensive boards, 4th in the CAA. Hitting the glass allows Rendleman to score outside the context of a halfcourt set, and before the defense can cover open perimeter shooters.
UNCW?s formula for victory this season is fairly simple: play very efficient offense and be good enough on defense. The Seahawks followed this path against William & Mary on Saturday, scoring 1.11 points per possession, and allowing 1.08 PPP, an exorbitant number for a losing team in a CAA game. For example, here?s the PPP allowed by the other CAA winners on Saturday ? Hofstra (1.05), Mason (0.90), Delaware (0.90), Drexel (0.88), VCU (0.76).
Still, the Seahawks won on 8 of their 10 best offensive nights this season, all of which are better than average for a Division I team.
Opponent PPP W / L
Hofstra 1.19 W
Delaware 1.19 W
Toledo 1.16 L
Furman 1.14 W
Will & Mary 1.11 W
N?eastern 1.11 W
Wake Forest 1.10 L
Campbell 1.06 W
Illinois St. 1.02 W
Liberty 1.01 W
On the flip side, UNCW lost on its eight worst offensive nights.
That?s a dangerous formula to follow. Offense can be fickle. But it?s the only formula available to a team that?s 12th in the CAA and No. 280 nationally in defensive efficiency. I have confidence the combination of Jackson and Morales (who played 71 minutes vs. the Tribe) will help the Seahawks protect the wings, and the basket. This team probably won?t develop into a good defensive team, but it can improve to the point where it strings together enough stops to have a shot at winning games. Buzz Peterson was pleased with the team?s defensive intensity on Saturday.
What have the Seahawks done well in their eight victories this season? Just what you?d think, for the most part. Low turnover rate, good defensive rebounding and, overall, solid defense. No real mysteries there.
Morales is on a hot streak offensively. The coaches value his contributions when he?s not scoring. Yet, by being a threat to score in double figures he might make teams question the decision to double-team Keith Rendlman. Teams are already scared to give Adam Smith any room on the 3-point line, which opens up driving room for Smith and others.
CAA leader George Mason is a very talented team with the best post combo in the CAA ? Ryan Pearson and Mike Morrison, who combine for 27 points and 15 rebounds per night. Morrison shoots 61 percent. Pearson shoots 51 percent, and 36 percent behind-the-arc, where he?s made 15 this season. As the CAA Expanded Efficiency Standings show, the Patriots are the top offensive team.
The Patriots have posted staggering defensive numbers in conference ? no opponent has scored more than 0.90 points per trip ? however they?ve done so against four teams (Towson, Delaware, Georgia State and William & Mary) who aren?t exactly lighting up the scoreboard in conference games.
What Will Be Watching ?
The start ? Will the Seahawks be within reach at the Under-8 media timeout? The Patriots are explosive, and embrace an up-tempo style in their arena.
Freddie Jackson ? The UNCW freshman played well against William & Mary, but aggressive perimeter pressure isn?t part of the Tribe?s DNA. It is 10th in the CAA in conference games in forcing turnovers (15.3 TO rate). Mason, on the other hand, forces opponents to cough it up on 20.9 percent of trips. It also has elite on-ball defenders Andre Cornelius, and Bryon Allen, who has defended opposing point guards in the Mason games I?ve watched. Turnovers fuel fastbreaks which generate runs.
UNCW?s offensive rebounding ? Mason is susceptible on the defensive glass, allowing opponents to collect a second-chance opportunity on 38 percent of shots (12th in the CAA). This has been a strength for UNCW most of the season. It gets 34.5 percent of offensive boards, 4th in the CAA. Hitting the glass allows Rendleman to score outside the context of a halfcourt set, and before the defense can cover open perimeter shooters.
