Omega HK Open

[Clive]

Will start this one as I believe Ian is moving house today, although I imagine his mac will be the first thing to be unpacked!

Was going to hava quiet week this week, licking my wounds from the weekend (thank goodness for the horses at them moment!), until I saw the prices at Ladbrokes!

Lian-Wei Zhang - one of the best Asians, a winner a few events back in Macau, pretty consistent, went to Japan last week and was respectable..28/1 with Chandler, but 66 with Ladbrokes and, for some reason Coral (a rare mistake for them)

Liang Wen-Chong - Ladbrokes laying 80 on the phones - the new Chinese superstar...wonder if he'll graduate onto the main tours at some point in the future...finished an incredible third in the TCL Classic behind Monty after shooting a 78 in round one.

Very guilty of overstaking these two!!

 

[bettingmad]

Clive,
Well at least you will know where you stand.... the Liang W Chong built my hopes up falsely in the TCL when I had backed Lian W Zhang!!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Gonna dip my wick in this silly season and throw in a 72 hole match play
Levit 10/11 over Jacobson @ Sportingbet Ties lose
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Question: Rather than assume @ Bookmakers again let me ask,is it ties push in their format?I see no place for wager on tie.

 

[Stanley]

They apply the dead-heat rule, so if your matchup is tied, you are paid on half stakes.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Stan. You would think after 4 years I'd run out of questions

One more,I have been looking at this Betfair outfit as maybe a source to fade players. Any pros or cons or should a dummy like me not step into this mode?

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Soren Hansen to win 22/1 @ Betabet
Going for a Danish treble this week! If there was a surprisingly low-key start to the 2003 European Tour season last week, this week is even more so. Europe's best are chasing the mega-bucks at Sun City and the Danes (including Bjorn) look the best of the European contingent. While not reaching the form which brought him a victory and a runners-up spot in June, he has been playing well recently with each of his last 13 rounds bar one (82 in the 3rd round of the Volvo Masters!) under par and a top-10 finish last week. He does have the benefit of playing the course last year and 22/1 looks a decent price, when 16/1 is almost universal.

Anders Hansen to win 22/1 @ Victor Chandler
Anders Hansen does not have the benefit of course experience, but he does have a respectable record in Asia - he secured a top-5 finish in last year's Singapore Masters - and is in excellent form and rested from a tiring season. He finished in the top-15 in the last three events on the 2002 European Tour and finished 3rd in the Italian Open. Already a winner this year, he is very capable of winning this week as well and so gets the nod over Lafeber who, while getting closer to the winning line, still stumbles when close.

Soren Kjeldsen to win 80/1 e.w. @ BetInternet (6 places)
The third Dane to be picked is not the short-priced Bjorn, but someone who has yet to win on Tour, but is considerably overpriced. There is a large discrepancy in the price for Kjeldsen, which can only be explained by his performance on this course last year. He withdrew from the event and so has been accorded a large price by some firms. However, he had been inside the top-10 after two rounds and quit on the course during the 3rd round, complaining of feeling weak and dizzy. He was diagnosed with influenza. His recent form has been patchy, but it includes a top-10 finish in the Open de Madrid and he is acclimatized after finishing 36th last week. Having played well on this course last year and with a desire to carry on where he left off before he fell ill, Kjeldsen could be a dark-horse this week.

 

[Stanley]

DTB, there should be plenty of people here who can advise you on Betfair. It can be profitable, but I think the opportunity to fade golfers is a little limited unless you are doing it in-running.

You could also look at TradeSports who were trading prices on PGA Tour events this year.

 

[milpalm]

Kjeldsen is 100/1 at Betandwin. I grabbed some of that earlier today. Have also backed Soren Hansen. 28/1 was available yesterday with Hills.

 

[Stanley]

Good price on Kjeldsen, but I'd rather have six places than just win-only with someone who has yet to win on Tour.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

They must have just dropped these at bet and win as nothing there early,now there is,however I don't see option to bet E/W?

I am glad to see ya liking him Stan. I hit SB when they dropped lines on him@80/1 (4 places) thinking they were out of kelter,smiled when I seen 365 open @ 50/1 now I'm:nutkick myself.

 

[milpalm]

You're right. I don't think he will win either but I'm hoping to lay off in-running. Several tempting prices at Betandwin. Clive's pick Liang is also 100/1, as is Kingston, Gibson and Terblanche.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 72 holes @ 5dimes
hedgeing the Levet/Jacobson match @ SB with
Sandelin +100 over Levet @ 5dimes

Levet threw in clincker last week when I wagered in outright on him so will hegde in case he throws in another.
To lose both, Jacobson will have to beat both Levit and Sandelin which I don't like his chances however covering both is distinct possibilty.

 

[steved]

DTB, only way I seem to win on Betfair for Golf, is to back a player you consider to be overpriced and lay off, taking profit asap...
You need price to contract of course, but if this is before a ball is struck, then so much the better....

 

[Clive]

Don't use betandwin any more! IMO they are the biggest joke around..fed up of their ridiculous limits.

Use Betfair quite a lot, tend to back players traditionally and then try to back them at betfair too and lay that portion back. People will often lay you big prices about lesser players.

Ian and bmad will I'm sure chip in as they use it for golf more than me, I tend to use it for horses much more.

 

[bettingmad]

DTB,
You should be able to lay off at smaller prices if one of your outrights is doing well for a bit of guaranteed profit and they also do place only but sometimes the prices are not very good so ask for a price you you want.
But do you know anything about US horses? If you do you should be able to get some value as each time I have looked, the odds on offer are well above the US Tote.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Clive I see what you mean bout betand win this morning. I had not made a wager there since opening account(and may not make another)so thought I throw a $10 wager on Kjeld and they reduced wager to $9 and change saying payoff exceeded limit

I thought Steve and Ian would know ropes at betfair but not sure that olddogs learn new tricks.Here is situation I am looking at and tell me if its viable.

I lookin to exploit factors like Duval who they continue to put in top eclelon of outrights yet barely makes 50% of cuts 11 out of 20 events and only 1 top 5.

I thinking there got to be people backin him to keep him up there in outright odds.--and if not him next year there may be others.

 

[Clive]

DTB, that works for me!

If best price Duval is generally 12/1, you would probably be able to lay him at 13 or 14/1...but remember you must deposit your liability, therefore if you want to lay ?100, you would need to deposit ?1300 or ?1400 depending on the price you get.

The best way to do it is dispassionately; eg if you think Duval is bad value at 12, but a bet at 16, then put both on...I do that quite a lot with horses, not so much for golfers. I just try to get bigger prices about players I like...there are often people who hoover up stakes at large odds as they see it as easy money.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Outrights to place @ 5dimes
Zhang 10/1
Liang 12/1
Sjoland 13/1

Hope I don't hex ya Clive but I like the #s also.

Stan The discussion on the kjeldson fellow is speculative. not official play.
however I will be pulling for him
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
place wagers are 1/2 unit

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Nick Faldo to beat Fredrik Jacobson -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]
Barry Lane to beat Fredrik Jacobson -133 @ Five Dimes
Jarmo Sandelin to beat Fredrik Jacobson -110 @ Bet365
Barry Lane to beat Charlie Wi -118 @ Easybets [2 units]
Lian-Wei Zhang to beat Francois Lucquin -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]
Henrik Nystrom to beat Ted Oh -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]

 

[steved]

0.5 ew each
Nystrom 100/1 (VChandler), ended Euro tour well, 13th last week..like it when Stanley picks in some way, and Ladbrokes duck (40/1)
Percey 125/1 (VChandler) Aus out of Aus, wondering why, easier here?

Will start to study UK books more closely and post accordingly...looking for players being ducked by books that do not generally duck everyone. Eurobet might appear to be short on players, hinting their compiler expects a good tournament, but if you run down list, they are short on everyone...nearly