On Sharp Betting September Baseball

[yanno]

(copy and paste from an email received from VSIN)

September is one of the best times of year for sharp MLB bettors.

Since 2005, underdogs have gone 2,419-3,273 (42.5%) in September according to Bet Labs Sports. This might seem like a losing record, but because of the plus money payouts you are actually up +6.45 units. This is one of the only months (aside from April and October) where blindly betting underdogs is profitable. The key is ensuring they also have line movement in their favor (which means likely sharp support). If you look at dogs with at least 1-cent of line movement in their favor in September they improve to 44.7% with +78.39 units won.

The key here is that public bettors leave the MLB market in favor of NFL and NCAAF. As a result, almost all line moves in September are caused by sharps. So tailing the sharp side becomes more popular than usual.

Hope this is of some interest, and Good Luck to all of us this month! :0008

 

[Grama]

Good stuff, thanks:0074

 

[jesscolb]

What site or sites have the best opening lines in MLB?

 

[jesscolb]

Day 1 of this strategy?Underdogs 2-10 -6.6 units
Line Movement on Dogs?0-3

 

[jesscolb]

Day 2?Underdogs 5-10 -.6 units
Line Move Dogs?2-3 -.4 units
Day 3?Underdogs 3-8 -4.3 units
Line Move Dogs?-1-2 -.9 units

 

[yanno]

Further On Betting September Baseball

Further On Betting September Baseball

(copy and paste from an email received from VSIN)
Hope this is of interest to some members and readers of the site. :0008

September is a unique month for baseball betting. It's the last month of the regular season and the public knows who's good and who's not. As a result, they will pound the winning teams because they've proven to be successful and fade the bad teams who are out of it. On the surface, this makes sense. But it isn't a smart bet. The books know the public will hammer the top teams, which leads to overpriced and inflated numbers.

Since 2005, dogs facing elite opponents (win percentage .600 or higher) in September have gone 258-350 according to Bet Labs Sports. This translates to a 42.4% win rate but thanks to the big payouts its produced +50.04 units with a 8.2% ROI. In other words, it pays to bet against good teams down the stretch.

When it comes to totals, the late-season September heat (combined with the wind) leads to a sneaky edge on overs. Since 2005, when it's at least 80 degrees and the wind is blowing out in a division game, the over has won 55.5% of the time (+37.68 units). If you isolate it to only September the over improves to 59.3% (+14.49 units).

My Note: Obviously Bet Labs Sports is using a very large sample size and is using averages and other statistical measures taken over a longish time period. Over such a time period, you will find major fluctuations and 'runs'. This is statistically true even with coin flipping. Over (say) 10,000 flips you will find long runs of heads or tails. This can and has been computer simulated and I actually did it myself with real coins, as a kid. In other words, past results do not predict future results in the short run. If they did, we could all get rich, except that the books would shut down. So, knowing what is possible on average is just one guide to our analysis.

 

[jesscolb]

Day 4?Underdogs 5-6 +0.6 units
Line Movement Dogs 1-4 -2.4 units

Day 5 --- Underdogs 11-4 +11 units
Line Movement Dogs 1-1 +0.1 units

 

[jesscolb]

Day 6? Underdogs 4-9 -3.3 units
Line Movement Dogs 1-3 -1.9 units

Day 7?Underdogs 1-12 -10.3 units
Line Movement Dogs?0-3 -3 units

Week 1 results?-Underdogs 31-59 -16.8 units
Line Movement Dogs-6-19 -11.6 units

 

[jesscolb]

Week 2

Monday Results
Underdogs 2-6 -3.1 units
No Dog Line Movement Plays

Tuesday Results
Underdogs 7-8 +3.7 units
Dog Line Movement 0-2 -2 units

Wednesday Results
Underdogs 8-5 +7.7 units
Dog Line Movement 2-1 +1.6 units

Thursday
Underdogs 4-10 -3.1 units
Dog Line Movement 2-3 -.85 units

Friday
Underdogs 3-9 -4 units
Dog Line Movement 1-1 +.3 units

Saturday
Underdogs 6-7 +3.1 units
Dog Line Movement No plays

Sunday
Underdogs 4-8 -1.7 units
Line Movement Dogs 1-1 +.3 units

Week 2 Totals
Underdogs 34-53 +2.6 units
Line Movement Dogs 6-8 -.5 units

 

[Sonny]

What site or sites have the best opening lines in MLB?

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/

and

https://www.bookmaker.eu/sportsbook

 

[jesscolb]

Week 3

Monday
Underdogs 4-4 +3.9 units
Dog Line Movement 0-1 -1 units

Tuesday
Underdogs 5-9 -1.3 units
Line Movement Dogs 0-2 -2 units

Wednesday
Underdogs 8-5 +8.3 units
Line Movement Dogs 5-1 +6.8 units

Thursday
Underdogs 1-7 -5.8 units
Line Movement Dogs 0-3 -3 units

Friday
Underdogs 2-11 -8 units
Line Movement Dogs 1-0 +1.8 units

Saturday
Underdogs 6-8 +5 units
Line Movement Dogs 1-0 +1.5 units

Sunday
Underdogs 6-8 +1.4 units
Line Movement Dogs 2-1 +2.1 units

Underdogs 32-52 +3.5 units
Line Movement Dogs 9-8 +6.2 units

 

[jesscolb]

Week 4

Monday
Underdogs 1-4 -1.7 units
No Line Movement Plays

Tuesday
Underdogs 6-9 +.8 units
Line Movement Dogs 2-1 +1.8 units

Wednesday
Underdogs 2-12 -7-2 units
Line Movement Dogs 0-3 -3 units

Thursday
Underdogs 3-6 -.8 units
Line Movement Dogs 2-3 -.1 units

Friday
Underdogs 5-9 +.5 units
Line Movement Dogs 3-1 +4.2 units

Saturday
Underdogs 6-9 +1.8 units
Line Movement Dogs 4-4 +2.5 units

Sunday
Underdogs 7-7 +3.6 units
Line Movement Dogs 3-2 +1.9 units

Week 4 Results
Underdogs 30-56 -3 units
Line Movement Dogs 14-14 +10 units

 

[jesscolb]

September Totals
Underdogs 127-220 -13.7 units
Line Movement Dogs 35-49 +4.3 units