One early playoff pick 1/8

[Glenn Quagmire]

NFL YTD (19-14-1)

2-2 this weekend, would have been 3-1 if I hadn't been a dipshite and put SD in my 4 team parlay. Still one of the best days of the year as I got to see both the Falcons and Bengals get exposed for the frauds that they are yet again. Anyway, on to the pick...

Pitt (-3) - I first have to say I was very surprised by this line. Even though Cincy crawled into the playoffs I thought they would be favored due to the homefield advantage. They're not. Oh well. I'm still taking the better team. I probably sound like a broken record at this point but the Bengals haven't impressed me at all this year. They beat a couple of good opponents (the Steelers being one of them), but the rest of the year has been nothing to write home about. They got throttled by the Chiefs today, lose at home to Buffalo, and BARELY beat teams like GB, Cleveland and Houston at home.

The last time they beat Pitt Ben was injured. Although he threw for 3 TDs and a lot of yardage, he also threw 3 picks. That was the difference in the game, in my opinion. Although the Bengals D is opportunistic, I don't see him crapping the bed like that again. Not only is he healthy but Bettis and the running game has really turned it on. And even though Cincy has a very good offense, their D can't stop anyone. Pitt should be able to do what they want against them.

I'm sure Chad Johnson will run his mouth about what kind of TD dance he will do if he gets into the end zone, but he should probably just concentrate on actually winning a game. I'm beginning to think he's becoming a distraction for his team. The Bengals will put up some points but I think the front seven of Pitt will dictate the flow of the game. If they can win the battle in the trenches I think it will be a long day for Cincy. I like the fact that Pitt is rolling and the Bengals are sputtering. The Bengals have benefitted all year from their creme puff schedule. That's over now. I think Pitt wins by 10 or more...

 

[thom24ad]

Glenn, the damn Pats screwed me or I would have been 3-0 for weekend...but still getting smashed in the bowl games...I swear it happens to me every year...when will I learn to just play the New Year Day games instead of all these other chit games...I know next year for the first two weeks I am only play the dogs
As for the game, yeah your right the wrong team is favored. I most likely playing the home dog this week. KC/Cincy this was a bye week for the Bungles and KC wanted to send Dick off with a W. You haven't been impressed with Cincy but well about Pitt. Yeah they have been winning games but I think Cincy is going to be ready for this one. I think they are good enough team to win a playoff game. I am also kind of leaning on NE too. I think NE matches up better with Jacksonville ( hmmmmm, could this be the reason why they played their second string qb in the 2 Q.) then anyone cause of their lack of a passing game. Jacksonville just doesn't seem like a playoff caliber team to me. I believe NE will make a statement in this game that are still the champs until knocked off...The Pats are going to want all the momentum they can get going to Indy and a first round blowout game will help.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Thom,

I've had the opposite problem with the bowl games. I started off really well but lately I've been getting killed. I had WV on the moneyline last night, but it still didn't make up for the pounding I took on the other games.

Yeah, I could be wrong about the Steelers. And I agree, it's odd that a #3 seed is getting 3 points at home. I just don't see why everyone likes the Bengals so much this year. If they had played just about anyone else's schedule I think they would be a 9-7 team. And if Forrest Gump were here he would say that the Bungles are like a box of chocolates... you never know what you're going to get. I don't doubt that they will come out fired up and play their asses off, but going against them has made me money all year. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But I think Pitt has a lot more heart than they do. So I like them in this game.

As for NE, I completely agree. I see that game being similar to the TB game. I think a lot of people will take the points, because it's so many, but I think NE may put a whooping on them. Seriously, how is Jax going to score? They have an anemic offense to begin with, and you know NE will shut down their running game. They don't have a passing game so I think they're in trouble. On the other side, Jax has a very good defense but I don't think NE's O will be shut down. They have been finding ways to put a lot of points on the board lately. And the last thing... the weather. Jax is used to 80 degree days. I think that's a huge advantage to NE.

 

[Killrus]

I think this game will be decided on turnovers. Both teams can score, its just who will make the most mistakes. I think taking the points here is a good idea. Even if Cinci gets behind, they do have potential to score and at least pull within a FG.

/I'm still pissed off that the Titans played like shit against the Jags and let them put up a 40 spot. Christ almighty. Jags cant do shit against the niners but then play their backups and score shitloads of points.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I think this game will be decided on turnovers. Both teams can score, its just who will make the most mistakes. I think taking the points here is a good idea. Even if Cinci gets behind, they do have potential to score and at least pull within a FG.

/I'm still pissed off that the Titans played like shit against the Jags and let them put up a 40 spot. Christ almighty. Jags cant do shit against the niners but then play their backups and score shitloads of points.

You may very well be right. That's why I said I think (maybe hope) that I don't see Big Ben having the same kind of sloppy game as last time. If he does, I think the Bengals will win. I'm just banking on him playing better and I think the Steelers will be able to run the ball better this time, which should take some pressure off of him.

The Jags are a hard team to peg this year. Their D is great, but their O is pretty suspect. I think they might be in for a long day against NE.

 

[thom24ad]

great refrence to the Gump :mj07: and your totally right about the Bungles. I just have to go with the home dog on this one but its nagging me a little that 3 seed is geting points at home, it could be a trap

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I completely understand you or anyone else betting on the Bengals this week. A #3 seed at home getting 3 points doesn't happen often. I'm actually very surprised that so many people are on the Steelers. I thought a million people would respond and tell me I was crazy. As for the line... I usually don't read much into lines. I have to say though, that line definitely looks like Vegas wants Cincy money. Could mean nothing though. Maybe it's inflated because Pitt has been playing well and Cincy hasn't? Anyway, good luck with your pick. It's not often we're on opposite sides!

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Added another one...

TB/Wash (under 36.5) - The line on this one opened at 37 at my book, but I didn't jump on it immediately. I checked back 1/2 hour later and it was already down to 36.5. Now, of course, it's back up to 37. I should have waited. Anyway, I think this game will play out nothing like the first one. These two teams combined for 71 points in their first meeting. I don't see that happening again. Playoff games tend to showcase defense more than offense and these are two of the best D's in the NFL. Also, both teams have good running games so the clock should be chewed up by both sides. Furthermore, I don't see either team opening up the offense too much. Simms is a liability at QB and against that tough 'Skins D I don't think he will be asked to try and make big plays. I know the Skins secondary is banged up but I still don't see him having a big game. Brunell is a little better than Simms but still not great. He's also hobbled by a bad knee so I think he will be fairly limited as well. I see this game playing out like a 17-13 game.

GLTA...

 

[thom24ad]

Glenn,
I like that under play on TB/Wash a lot more then the game itself. I am going to be tailing you on this one.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Thanks Thom. I like the total better than the side myself. I have a slight lean to Wash, but wouldn't be surprised if TB won and covered either. Good luck to us!

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Ok, I added another one a couple of days ago but haven't had time to post it. I like this one more than the other two, FWIW... It is, drumroll please...

NE -1/Wash +9.5 - I have to start by saying I respect the Jags as much as anyone. I was one of their biggest supporters this year. Their defense is absolutely sick and they will come ready to play. Having said that... it's not going to matter. This is another "buzzsaw" game to me. Meaning Jax is going to be walking into a buzzsaw. This game reminds me A LOT of the Tampa/NE game of a few weeks ago. I thought TB would keep it close but boy was I wrong. I know Jax is better than TB, but I think the similarities are still there. Yes, Jax has a great defense. However, their offense is average on it's best day. Belichick is an absolute master at shutting down his opponent's strength. That would be the Jags running game. I think NE will shut down the banged-up Fred Taylor and force Lefty to beat them. Not going to happen. The Pats will pressure him all day long and he will be throwing off his back foot and picking himself up off the ground. Welcome back to the league after a 5-week layoff Byron! On the other side of the ball NE will have to face that formidable Jags defense. Not an easy task. I don't see Dillon having a big day, but I do think Brady is going to shine. He spreads the ball around well and I think he will do the same thing on Saturday. And lastly, it's a home playoff game for the Pats in January, where they don't lose. Oh yeah, Brady also threw out the "disrespect" card earlier this week. NE will not lose this game. I think they win by 14 or more, but I'm playing it safe and taking the -1.

I think Washington has a great chance to win this one outright. The main reason I'm doing this teaser though is because I wouldn't exactly be shocked if TB won by a FG. I think it will be a pretty close game throughout. I already went into my analysis of this game on my under pick earlier, but needless to say I don't see TB winning this game by 10 or more. I wouldn't be surprised to see this one come down to a last second FG.

GLTA...

 

[thom24ad]

Great write-up, I couldn't have said it any better myself...Wash +9.5 sounds, allllllright...Good Luck

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Thanks Thom. Good luck to you too. Maybe I should start rating my picks with a "giggity" rating system? :mj07: I'll give the teaser play 3 giggitys, what the hell!

 

[THE KOD]

= 3 giggitys,

 

[trolln4walii]

GL this weekend Glenn. I'm on the Steelers tomorrow as well Like the Skins today (got them with the field goal). Like the looks of your teaser and may add that. Total looks like a winner, but me and totals get along about as much as Scott4USC and the anti-trojan gang :142lmao: Be looking forward to the rest of your plays this week :mj14:

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I like the looks of that Scott! Allllriiiight!

Thanks trolln. I ended up taking the Skins +1 right before the game, but didn't post it so I'm not counting it in my totals. Congrats to us on that win!

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Updated record (20-15-1)

Well, I won my original under 36.5 bet on the Skins game but I was dumb and hedged on the over 17 at halftime. Therefore I went 1-1 on the early game. Adding this one...

Pats (-7) Bought it down to -7. I really like this game. I said a lot about this game in my earlier posts, and nothing has changed. I know Jax has a great defense but I just don't see them putting points up in this game. NE's defense is going to feast on Taylor and Leftwich. And as I type this they are saying that Leftwich is running gingerly on his injured ankle and that he "doesn't look good." And Bruschi is starting. I love the Pats in this spot.

 

[thom24ad]

It looked like we were in trouble at the half but I thought things were going to slow down cause the only first two TDs were scored becasue of TOs
Lets go Pats!

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Updated record (22-15-1)

3-1 on the day with the only loss being a dumb hedge bet at halftime of the Skins game. Oops. Gooooo Steelers!

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Updated record (23-15-1)

I have to admit I didn't see any of the second half but the Steelers looked absolutely terrible in the first half. I have no idea what happened but apparently they pulled their heads out of their asses. Carson getting knocked out changed the game dramatically. My team was a 3 point favorite and won by 14, but I still I think I caught a pretty big break in this one.