Record: 10-1-1 +15.9
Decent day yesterday but it could have been a lot better. I chickened out on playing Atlanta -1.5 and took Detroit in the first 5 innings instead of the whole game. Instead of 2-0 it's a no play and a push. Doh! I shouldn't complain though, I also thought the Twins would beat the Yanks. :mj07: Today's play...
Boston/Seattle U4.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS 260/200 - Maybe I'm crazy to play another 5 inning bet after getting burned yesterday but here is my reasoning. The O/U on the game started at 8.5 but the under was hit hard and it's now down to 8. Although I don't like the -130 line I think it's a safer bet than taking the under for the whole game. Seattle's bullpen is bad to begin with and they had to pitch SEVEN innings yesterday. It's spent. While Boston's bullpen is in much better shape I'm not crazy about it either. If there are less than 4 runs scored in the first 5 innings we win the bet. If there are 5 or more runs scored in the first 5 innings not only do we lose the bet, but I think there's a high probability that the game ends up going over 8 runs anyway. Therefore I don't think there's any added value in betting the full 9 innings.
A few more notes... Seattle's offense is struggling mightily. They won 2 of 3 in their opening series against Oakland but only hit .180. Then yesterday they got shut down by Beckett. They are not hitting well at all right now and now they have to face Dice-K. This is obviously just an opinion but I'd be surprised if they score more than one run in the first 5 innings.
On the other side I'm a little more worried about the Boston bats. They're a much better offensive team than the M's but they have to face Felix. He pitched a shutout in his first start and struck out 12. I don't expect him to pitch as well today because he's pitching on the road against the Sox instead of at home against the A's, but I do expect him to pitch well. I think if he gives up 3 runs or less we win the bet.
A couple more notes... Seattle has been a VERY bad road team the last few years. They haven't even been able to win 40% of their games on the road, struggling to score runs in the process.
Last note, I promise... Seattle also does not do well against pitchers they have never seen. It doesn't even have to be a good pitcher, simply a pitcher they have never seen. There have been many times when a team will throw out a recent AAA call-up against the M's and he'll look like Cy Young against them. They've never seen Dice-K so I think that is a huge advantage for him.
No other plays but I lean to Milwaukee. Mitre has gotten hit hard so far and I don't see that changing against Milwaukee's lineup. Bush isn't great and will give up some runs but I think the Brew Crew outscores Florida today. That is if they can get it in!
Good luck everyone!
Decent day yesterday but it could have been a lot better. I chickened out on playing Atlanta -1.5 and took Detroit in the first 5 innings instead of the whole game. Instead of 2-0 it's a no play and a push. Doh! I shouldn't complain though, I also thought the Twins would beat the Yanks. :mj07: Today's play...
Boston/Seattle U4.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS 260/200 - Maybe I'm crazy to play another 5 inning bet after getting burned yesterday but here is my reasoning. The O/U on the game started at 8.5 but the under was hit hard and it's now down to 8. Although I don't like the -130 line I think it's a safer bet than taking the under for the whole game. Seattle's bullpen is bad to begin with and they had to pitch SEVEN innings yesterday. It's spent. While Boston's bullpen is in much better shape I'm not crazy about it either. If there are less than 4 runs scored in the first 5 innings we win the bet. If there are 5 or more runs scored in the first 5 innings not only do we lose the bet, but I think there's a high probability that the game ends up going over 8 runs anyway. Therefore I don't think there's any added value in betting the full 9 innings.
A few more notes... Seattle's offense is struggling mightily. They won 2 of 3 in their opening series against Oakland but only hit .180. Then yesterday they got shut down by Beckett. They are not hitting well at all right now and now they have to face Dice-K. This is obviously just an opinion but I'd be surprised if they score more than one run in the first 5 innings.
On the other side I'm a little more worried about the Boston bats. They're a much better offensive team than the M's but they have to face Felix. He pitched a shutout in his first start and struck out 12. I don't expect him to pitch as well today because he's pitching on the road against the Sox instead of at home against the A's, but I do expect him to pitch well. I think if he gives up 3 runs or less we win the bet.
A couple more notes... Seattle has been a VERY bad road team the last few years. They haven't even been able to win 40% of their games on the road, struggling to score runs in the process.
Last note, I promise... Seattle also does not do well against pitchers they have never seen. It doesn't even have to be a good pitcher, simply a pitcher they have never seen. There have been many times when a team will throw out a recent AAA call-up against the M's and he'll look like Cy Young against them. They've never seen Dice-K so I think that is a huge advantage for him.
No other plays but I lean to Milwaukee. Mitre has gotten hit hard so far and I don't see that changing against Milwaukee's lineup. Bush isn't great and will give up some runs but I think the Brew Crew outscores Florida today. That is if they can get it in!
Good luck everyone!
