one game only for saturday...........

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gman2

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80 games to choose from. but this is the only one im playing. i think its far and away the best play on the board. not even gonna cap the rest of the games. got a lot of saturday commitments. (got a nice day lined up...home depot....maybe even bed/bath/beyond.. not sure if there'll be enough time)

butler (pk) over illinois-chicago

among other reasons:
*illinois-chicago has lost TEN straight in this series.
*illinois-chicago hasnt won at hinkle fieldhouse since 1988
*theres an enormous edge in free throw shooting here, and quite possibly the biggest single-game disparity ive seen this year. butler is one of the nations best at 77%. uic is one of the nations worst at 60%. normally a 6% or 7% difference is significant -- this matchup has a 17% difference.

more:
*butler 84% from the line at home during horizon play
*tough to overlook a team you havent beaten on the road in a quarter century, but worth noting that uic does have a big home date with milwaukee their next game.
*last 5 gms at butler have been decided by avg. of 13.2 pts.

8-1 L9 chalk plays for me. 4-11 L15 dog plays. guess the line move in this game could prove critical :D
 
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D

doochuk

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goodluck.......i am the same way gman....if one game stands out that much to me why play anything else and just put everything that you would bet that day on a game that you truly feel that strong about....by the way i like the play....but the way things have been going lately for me i don't know if that is a good or a bad thing.......regardless best of luck
 
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gman2

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ST:

i dont think so. i know where youre coming from, but most just take a cursory glance at the records and see a 14-7 uic team in a pick 'em spot vs. an 8-10 butler team. wouldnt surprise me to see butler go to 1 or 1.5 by tomorrow morning. maybe im dead wrong :shrug:
 
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Sun Tzu

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gman

just want you to make sure this isnt a frustration pick - you have burned some cash on those guys this year. certainly not arguing with the pick, just suggesting you think twice and step back before diving in GL
 
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gman2

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ST:
i know exactly what you mean. i took it on the chin with 'em in december a couple times. but definitely think im lookin at this one objectively. have had success on/against UIC in their recent games as well (in fact, had the flames strong 7 days ago). your point is taken though ;) (let me know if anything stands out in your part of the country)
 
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gman2

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ezpickin said:
So much for coming back after the Superbowl...:shrug:
Click to expand...

thanks for your concern. sorry if playing 1 gm out of 80 bothers ya. you'll get over it.
 
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Sun Tzu

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In terms of Big 12 I like Iowa State and Okl State. Still looking at rest of the card but Clemson and Ga Tech look like nice home dogs, especially with Puke and Roy peeking ahead to next week's match-up
 
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gman2

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ST:

like the clemson lean (good defensive team playing at home vs an incredibly suspect defensive group). cant say i like tech though. dont necessarily like duke, but i figured that line would be more like 5 or 5.5. line too shaved in my opinion.

just a matter of what kansas team shows. theyve been beatable on the road this year. isu playin well. certainly capable of winning. as for tech/osu -- you know those two better than i do. cant see many pts being scored in that one. gotta think the total is in the high 120s

johnny:

nah, 1 is all i need. and not even gonna be able to watch that one. too much shit goin on. gl with the west coast tomorrow
 
U

up slightly

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gman, long time no talk, if I may I would suggest you take a look at Vandy at home. If you got Pinnacle they are offering Vandy +1 +102. This is tied for my biggest play of the year.

Vandy is a very tough play to play, sidelines dimensions, only sport Vandy fans got a chance, there football team blows.

Vandy got major revenge, already lost to them earlier this month not to mention the woodshed treatment the Cats handed to them last year 106-44.

At 2-4 in the conference Vandy can ill afford many more in conference L's as .500 conference play is usually the cutoff for NCAA consideration for major divisions.

GL with your Butler play. 17% differential in FT's is worth around 5 points right off the bat.

up slightly
 
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gman2

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slight:

cant say i disagree. wildcats have been dodging a lot of road bullets lately. but kentucky has been tough on me lately. bet against em twice the L2 weeks and they got out to early DD 1h leads and my teams had to play catch-up. hit one (tennessee) and lost the other (notre dame). not having much wire-to-wire success with the wildcats. but your fundamental reasons are dead on. i didnt expect the coms to avenge that 106-44 debacle on the road in the 1st meeting. now that theyre on their own floor, payback could be in order here. welcome to the forum. can always use another good mind. its nothing like those shitholes of past yrs.
 
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TORONTO-VIGILANTE

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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
gman2 said:
ST:

i dont think so. i know where youre coming from, but most just take a cursory glance at the records and see a 14-7 uic team in a pick 'em spot vs. an 8-10 butler team. wouldnt surprise me to see butler go to 1 or 1.5 by tomorrow morning. maybe im dead wrong :shrug:
Click to expand...

cursory glance nothing, if cappers are gonna do that,. they're gonna get burned....conference games are a bit trickier to cap......looking at strength of sched in those non-conf games can't hurt either....

gl, i'm with you on Butler in this one.....that and because a little farmerboy told me to as well.
 
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