one top play for monday night.........

[gman2]

quietly puttin together a good run. lots of great games to WATCH monday imo, but only one stands out thats worth betting. texas/okie and uconn/cuse are gonna be two amazing games, but cant see anyone having an "edge" betting it. played the following for 4 units. needless to say, its a strong play.

4 units.....western michigan (moneyline +105) over c.michigan

already love this play, but the line is ideal at +1.5. i basically dont bother with any trends/stats, but home favorites of 2 or less are about as good a go-against as youll find. they fall into the category of "false favorites". wmu simply the better team, and the scheduling spot is ideal. broncos are well rested, and cmu has to make the quick 48-hour turnaround from playing a run-n-gun shootout in akron on saturday night (99-92 final). the spot really doesnt get much better.

rested team vs team on quick 48-hr turnaround.
revenge.
ideal line category.
and the better team.

broncos get it done.

 

[Nickelback]

A rested team and revenge I understand. . . but I don't understand how you can justify Western as being the better team. I think Western was thought of at the beginning of the season as the better team and the lines still haven't adjusted fully. If you look at the results for the season so far, I can't see how Central isn't thought of as the better team. . .

Gl just the same

 

[gman2]

nothing "tangible" i guess (as to why i feel wmu is better).
but just from seein a handful of gms in person this year, have drawn that conclusion. and that line tells you the play imo.

 

[Nickelback]

Interesting gman2, you mentioned that home favorites of 2 or less are "false favorites" yet I have made bank this year betting on home teams that fall into this category. Of course I have picked certain spots, but it has been a great situation so far this year for me.

Best of luck with your play. . . you do raise valid points and it appears for now that the public is on my side which is something I'm not in favor of. . . guess we'll see if that changes tomorrow but I'd assume most will ride Central.

 

[gman2]

gl nickel.

youre one of the few guys whose posts i check out regularly and to tell you the truth, i was actually surprised to see you NOT on western michigan. i figured youd be on em actually.

re: home favs of < 2....you must be pickin a choosin spots, because going anti-home team in that spot has been a consistent money maker for the last few years. the home team is layin a point or two because of a "perceived home court edge" but the road team is often just better. the only time im willing to go "against" this is when the unranked home team is a short chalk vs a ranked team (for obvious reasons, as that system supercedes this one)

for real though- those are the ONLY two systems i give any value to. (anti-home fav of <2....and then the unranked favorite).

as far as anti-public, you might be right. it does seem like damn near everyone is playing central. sometimes, thats a good indicator, other times, its not.

but from what ive seen both in person and on tv, wmu is the superior team and they catch cmu in a poor spot.

gl tomorrow man. btw- outstanding day today for you. props

 

[Nickelback]

Another good point for you is what you indicated about a perceived home court advantage. Both these teams play so close to one another that its not a full home court advantage for Central. I remember hellah making that point when he played Central over Western in the first matchup.

Back to the 2 point or less home favorite. . . it would be great if somebody could list the actual stats on the home team covering in this spot for this year and maybe the past couple if possible. Its not that I doubt you gman2 as maybe you have the stats yourself, I'd just like to know what the actual percentage is under this scenerio.

Part of the reason that I would not have looked at Western is that I have tried to bet on more home teams this year as it was one area that I needed to improve on the previous couple years of capping college basketball. I remember losing a lot of money betting on road dogs catching a couple points that I thought were gifts from Vegas (and this wasn't including the ranked system play as I was playing it back then). Anyways, that's part of it but a lot of it is how Central plays at home and the fact they are undefeated. Vegas set the first line as Western being favored by 11. We all know now this line was completely off. So take off 3 points for Western no longer being the home team and add 3 on to Central for being the home team now and Western should still be favored by 5 under the old line. This means Vegas has adjusted both teams since that time by another six points. Personally, I don't think its enough, but I'm sure you feel Vegas has overreacted.

My bet is already in anways. . . not about to change it unless some injury or other crutial information comes between now and tipoff. Gl bud and maybe you'll be on CSU so we can both cash that ticket in

 

[THUNDER]

gman home favs between 1-2.5 pts are covering at a 68% clip also taking home favs between 1-3pts in ncaa hoops has always been a huge moneymaker over 60% since i started keeping track 7 yrs ago. going against away favs of 1-3 would be a moneymaker. central mich has way more talent upfront and besides kent the cream of the mac. gl on your play

 

[xerri]

Love this play as well gman. CMU has had problems with TOs all year and in the first meeting they had 22 to WMU's 10. WM also had 13 offensive boards to just 5 for CMU. CMU shot 58% from the floor and hit 13 of 21 3's and still only managed to win by 5. Don't think there is any way they shoot that well again.

 

[THUNDER]

xerri they will shoot close to 60% again because like the first game west will not have a answer for KAMAN and there forwards.they shot lay-up after lay-up the first game and that will not change- the reason they shot well from outside is west double and tripled Kaman and he kicked it out for the wide open 3s- they had more o rebounds because when you shoot 60% there are not many rebounds to get. kaman and these forwards are dominate they are also very deep. they had alot of turnovers but they are home. and they are really not that turnover prone- what advantage does west have tonight? this central mich is going to cause some ruckus in the tourney. jmo

 

[gman2]

thunder- ive only followed going anti-home favorites of 2 or less, not 3 or less, which will result in different numbers. do you have an active database, or a link that shows 60%-68%. strange that we have two different perspectives on this. ive followed this for the last few years will good success. interesting stuff.

as far as the game goes- agree to disagree i guess. kamans been in the league for awhile now and cmu hasnt won a thing. hes gotten better ever year, but i dont really see him as the main player in this gm.

 

[gman2]

also played:

1 unit......tulsa (-1.5) over louisiana tech

maybe it was an anomaly, but that 2h tulsa has vs rice on saturday was about as dominant a half as ive seen from them in awhile. really the final 7:00 of the 1h, coupled with the 2h for tulsa. could be a big momentum swing for them. or they could fall flat on their face. hopefully its the former

 

[gman2]

final list:

4 units....western michigan moneyline (+105)
1 unit.....tulsa (-1.5) over latech
1 unit.....wyoming (-2.5) over utah

actually like the fact that the wyoming line moved up a little. so played small on the cowboys as well

gl.

 

[THUNDER]

gman you posted 2 or less at home was a false favorite- my database is my own homework and betting millions on college hoops over the last 8 years- if one bets away favs of 2 or less or are +2 or less on a consistent basis one will get killed. period i ussually do not stick my nose in others threads and i am not trying to pick on your play but betting away teams within 2 of a pick is suicide. anyone who knows me knows i am not a trend type of player either but look at all my plays i rarely take a away fav- and anyone on this forum who wins on a consistent basis stays on the home side as small favs. again gl on your play

 

[THE KOD]

good back and forth info in here.


I am going to ride with you gman on West Mich.

Tip off 8 PM

Thanks and good luck


Scott King of Dogs

 

[gman2]

thunder:
we can agree to disagree. its no problem. thats what these forums are for.

the only part of your recent post that i think is wacked is your last sentence.

you said "......anyone on this forum who wins on a consistent basis stays on the home side as small favorites....."

says who? pretty subjective opinion there.

ive seen guys succeed with myriad approaches. my personal approach is dogs only, with a small chalk mixed in every now and then. your approach seems to work for you. others have had success in their sytematic way.

but to say "anyone on this forum.........", thats pretty bold, and quite honestly- not true

 

[THE KOD]

I dont mean to bash gman but here go ahead .....


:nutkick :nutkick Scott King of Dogs :nutkick :nutkick



Win some lose some ! nice try.


PSSSTTT - Thunder really knows his shit. I think that reply he made was in general and not specific.




Scott King of Dogs