Compared to most, my handicapping method is strange. I pay attention to team roles, ats momentum and in some cases, how a game was won or lost.
For me, USC -5' vs Cal matchup is showing a strong play against the dog.
Teams which are cast in the role of a favorite are expected, in a sense, to uphold the honor of that designation.
Some do, some don't.
In the final analysis, either the favorite or the dog trots away with the cover.
But getting beat isn't nearly as bad losing the game.
And that's exactly what happened with Cal @ ARIZONA.
Cal (-13') had a 17-3 lead at the half and then got clobbered in the second half - three td's to a field goal.
CALIFORNIA (8) 10 / 7 / 0 / 3 /= 20
ARIZONA 3 / 0 / 7 / 14 /= 24
California-TD, D Jackson 95 YD PUNT RETURN (T Schneider
KICK) 3:17 1st Qtr
ARIZONA-FG, N Folk 39 YD 9:01 1st Qtr
California-FG, T Schneider 46 YD 11:28 1st Qtr
California-TD, D Jackson 62 YD PASS FROM N Longshore (T
Schneider KICK) 8:46 2nd Qtr
ARIZONA-TD, C Henry 1 YD RUN (N Folk KICK) 9:09 3rd Qtr
ARIZONA-TD, C Henry 4 YD RUN (N Folk KICK) 0:49 4th Qtr
ARIZONA-TD, A Cason 39 YD INTERCEPTION RETURN (N Folk
KICK) 2:21 4th Qtr
California-FG, T Schneider 20 YD 5:09 4th Qtr
Throughout the season, lots of teams get clobbered in the second half. Such is the nature of the game.
But my research shows committing this kind of error in the role of a favorite can have a profound and immediate consequence.