ORIOLES/BLUE JAYS Over 10 -125 - This is simply a case where there are too many angles pointing to the Over for me to ignore. First of all, the Over is 25-9, 73.5% in all Toronto home games this season, with an average total score of 12.64 runs per game. Secondly, the Over is an even more impressive 28-9, 75.7% in all Baltimore road games, with an average total score of 11.71 runs per contest. Finally, tonight?s starting pitchers are also conducive to the Over. Lidle is 10-4 on the year, but with a rather high 4.82 ERA, and the Over is 11-5 in all of his starts. Ponson allowed 5 earned runs in just 5 innings in his last start in Atlanta, and the Over is 6-2 in all of his road starts.
Orioles/Blue Jays - 6/25/03
- Thread starter Eugene Michaels
- Start date
Eugene:
what u think about Over 10 1/2 Runs @ + money.
Am going to go to the game. May put a bit on the over.
Thanx
Spock
what u think about Over 10 1/2 Runs @ + money.
Am going to go to the game. May put a bit on the over.
Thanx
Spock
doubt he will reply...
FYI: rule of thumb on juice and half runs is that for most totals, a half run is worth 20 cents. So, over 10.5 even is the same long term odds/payoff as over 10 -120. If you can only get 10 over -120 and over 10.5 even, it is a coin toss. If you can get better than -120 on the 10, take that; if you can better on the over 10.5, take that. Sounds like over 10.5 plus money is the better way to go in the long run; one game shots, though, are up to you: how much would it hurt you to lose the game instead of push if it lands on 10?
FYI: rule of thumb on juice and half runs is that for most totals, a half run is worth 20 cents. So, over 10.5 even is the same long term odds/payoff as over 10 -120. If you can only get 10 over -120 and over 10.5 even, it is a coin toss. If you can get better than -120 on the 10, take that; if you can better on the over 10.5, take that. Sounds like over 10.5 plus money is the better way to go in the long run; one game shots, though, are up to you: how much would it hurt you to lose the game instead of push if it lands on 10?
Spock,
Sorry I didn't see your question until this morning. Seems that Mack hit the nail right on the head, as the general rule of thumb is each 1/2 run is worth 20 cents. One thing I would like to add is that when there is a 1/2 run difference with a ML swing of EXACTLY 20 cents, I personally prefer to go with the better line. For example, if you see lines of Over 10 -120 and Over 10.5 +100, these lines are equal in value but I would go for the Over 10. Using last night's example however, I think that you made the right call of Over 10.5 +100, since there was a 25-cent difference from my line.
I hope I didn't confuse you.
Good Luck.
Sorry I didn't see your question until this morning. Seems that Mack hit the nail right on the head, as the general rule of thumb is each 1/2 run is worth 20 cents. One thing I would like to add is that when there is a 1/2 run difference with a ML swing of EXACTLY 20 cents, I personally prefer to go with the better line. For example, if you see lines of Over 10 -120 and Over 10.5 +100, these lines are equal in value but I would go for the Over 10. Using last night's example however, I think that you made the right call of Over 10.5 +100, since there was a 25-cent difference from my line.
I hope I didn't confuse you.
Good Luck.
thanx Eugene and mack
nice call ..
more clear in my mind now regarding the 1/2 run . .
was at the game yesterday and I was the only guy cheering hard for every baltimore run especially the Mora HR to lead off top 9'th.
People thought I was mad
Thanx
Spock
nice call ..
more clear in my mind now regarding the 1/2 run . .
was at the game yesterday and I was the only guy cheering hard for every baltimore run especially the Mora HR to lead off top 9'th.
People thought I was mad
Thanx
Spock
