Orl/Chi

eztds

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Looking at this one you'd tend to think Orl -3 based on:

-Chi would be 10 losses in a row except for beating the "lowy" Cavs....but....that ONLY happened after da Bulls lost to these same "lowy" Cavs 3 days before in Clev!

-Da Bulls losses in that 9 game losing streak averaged 12.3 ppg.....with the closest margin of defeat being by 6 pts.

-In their last game they did manage to beat the Cavs by 8 at home......but Orl isn't Clev.

-Is this the start of a huge Bulls turn around?? I really kinda doubt it.

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However, the other side of the coin are the facts:

-The Magic aren't exactly look'n real great recently....losing their last two on the road:

*Dec 7...NJ by 33 <----McGrady with only 16 pts
*Dec 9...Bost in OT last night by 5

-Countering that is the fact the Magic haven't lost "3 in a row" yet this season.

-Another concern is the Magic are play'n their 6th game in 9 days.....after a b-to-b OT loss last night......and this will be the 3rd game in a row on the road.

-Da Bulls come in tonight on 3 days rest after beating Clev for their 1st win in 10 games!!

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Questions boil down to this IMHO:

Can the better team (playing a bit tired and on the road) beat the weaker team (fresh and at home)?

Do the veterns teach the youngsters a lesson tonight?

Da Bulls don't play defense.....so does this one become a shoot out going over the 202?

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Guys.....I'm not going to post any picks until I see some lucid, well thought out discussions about this game in my thread (or in other threads here at MJ).

The days of "picks" without some "give and take" are drawing to a close.

Yesterday....Jeff and gsp fired some valid and useful information into my thread on the Pho/NJ game last night.....they both turned out turned to be dead right on.

Thank you Jeff and gsp for your input....that's how a forum should function.

I also appreciated those posting in their support and "that-a-boys".....thank you too....that's another vital function of this forum.

However, "takes" on the games/plays should be everyone's first focus.....no your not going to have a "take" on every game but on the ones you do.....let everyone know by posting your agreement or disagreement (and why if possible). IT HELPS EVERYBODY!!

No input......no picks since I'm going to assume one of two things:

1) My opinions are beneath the dignity of some people in here to even respond to.

or

2) People don't really care and are just hoping I "crash and burn" ASAP....then promptly go away!

I know somebody's at least opening the threads based on the counter. Unfortunately, I tend to think #2 is the situation.

If your only looking at the plays someone has posted just so you can root against their pick....shame on you!

At the close of last NBA season I said this forum was too "cliquish" for its own good and hoped that would change this season. Saddly things have gotten worse if anything.....with the departure of several 'capper who posted here last year.
 

Stewy

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My take on the NBA, I like fading the knicks when leading at halftime and I love the Denver 2nd half unders. I really hate wagering on the NBA because these overpaid dope smoking wife beaters show up to play about half the time. The regular season doesn't mean a whole lot being that almost everyone makes the playoffs.

That being said I love reading your informative writeups. I can almost tell by reading your posts if you have a real winner or if maybe your just throwing a pick against the wall. I can honestly say that the few games I have wagered on in the NBA this season have been because of your indepth analysis of certain games.

I totally understand where you are coming from, There are some people in here who anyone would blindly follow and the truth be told they are probably hitting about 50 percent of their plays and drinking alot of juice on their heavy action.
 

tschreiber

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Take on Chi/Orl

Take on Chi/Orl

I am a Bulls fan, always have been, always will be, but with that, I need to know when money is money and when there is easy money to be made. Tonight, I think is one of those opportunities. I follow the Bulls, and they really have nothing that can compete with the one-two punch of McGrady and Hill, let alone Miller's shooting and ~gasp~ Kemp's rebounding.

Rose has been a huge disappointment this year, and he can't defend anyone. He is up and down, and was up vs. the Cavs. McGrady, Miller and Hill had great games vs. Bos. last night, so, I expect nothing less tonight. The difference is Pierce and Walker vs. Rose and ... and ... Donyell Marshall?!

No firepower for the Bulls, I am going to be at this game tonight to watch McGrady and cheer the Bulls, but my wallet will be with Orlando ....

Magic 107 Bulls 90

G/L to all, thanks for the info, keep up the good work, always looking for others' opinions.
 

gsp

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Frankly, I am in that group that hopes you crash and burn, but only when I have money on the other side. I have been known to pull against one of my plays when I know some of my friends have big money on the other side. That out of the way, let's get down to business.


I don't believe this but the game caps that Chi wins by 1. Both Hill and McGrady are banged up. Sometimes that means something and sometimes it don't. As to whether the line is correct, (this is where it gets screwy) one of my methods shows the line as dead on, the other shows it off by as much as 7 in Orl fav. No way I could play this game. Good luck
 

Celyas

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Well, I'm not anywhere near the level of other cappers that you mentioned but here's my take on the game. Keep in mind that I havne't played hoops in a while :)

I'm tempted to take the Bulls tonite. Magic haven't look so good lately and they're coming of b2b OT losses. As you mentioned, it's their 6th game in 9 days and T-Mac and Hill are both hurting and they're probable tonite. I believe that the Bulls will be fired up to take advantage of this situation coming of a 3 day rest. I'm thinking that the Bulls will try to pace this game up trying to exploit this tired Magic team. I see this as a 198-200 game so the total is too close for me.


I can only speak for myself, but your opinion is held in high regards here. By me, and as I can see most of the others here.

And I sincerly hope that noone here just waits to see someone crash and burn. If there are individuals like that here, I feel sorry for them and their approach.
 

Gatecrasher

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Wagerline consensus is 228-70 for the Magic.

After a string of bad luck I am resorting to this elementary approach, fading the consensus but with home teams only. 0-2 yesterday. For today:

Chicago +3
GS +7
Knicks +1.5

Hope you keep on winning man, not looking for anyone to crash and burn! Been learning alot at this forum from you and others that bring some insight to this handicapping madness I've gotten myself into.
 

eztds

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Stewy............

Stewy............

isn't it something how you can tell when a "pick" is just being wildly fired into MJ's! I will admit I was guilty on Saturday and Sunday of not doing enough homework. I shouldn't have posted even one play either day.

IN DOING SO.......I DID A DISSERVICE TO THE FORUM AND APOLOGIZE TO ANYONE WHO FOLLOWED.

As a result I got what I deserved 2-4 (or 1-4 for failing to specify.....Port pk 2H). At least with the Port pk 2H I had some logic behind the play!

I think everyone in here knows who's spent the time and when they've let up a bit.

Rarely can you look at a game for less than 15-30 and say you've really 'capped it thoroughly.

Those that don't "pay the dues" end up as you say with a 50-50 "flip-of-the-coin" juice kill'n.

Thanks for allowing me to vent some frustration and you do speak the truth as I see it too.

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tschreiber.......

I tend to agree with your assessment. If we had a fresher Magic team it would be a "large play"....but....then agian the line would be likely higher than 3. GL and have fun at the game.

You can know that what your seeing first hand has an effect on my pocketbook. If it comes down to it, run on to the court and disrupt the game on the Bull's final shot should we need a Bull's missed bucket for the cover! ;)

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gsp........

Your opinion valued and respected as always. You are one who I know 'capps his games thoroughly.

Therefore......

I hope the Magic with the 7 adv is what goes down tonight. I just don't like the way the Bulls have been playing this year.

A "big" win over the Cavs means nothing in my books. The Magic are the superior team if McGrady and Hill will come out and play like they are a more talented/veteran than this bunch of young Bulls.

I think no all is on to something with the Magic's bench needing to SETUP tonight!!

The Magic did put up a good fight in Boston last night (against a much better team than these Bulls) as tschreiber so astutely pointed out.

ROOT FOR US gsp!! ;)
 
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eztds

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Celyas......

You bring up all the points as to why we have a line of -3 tonight. But.....I harken back to 9 straight loss by an average of 12.3 ppg.

Has that situation changed with a win over the Cavs.....after a loss to them several days earlier.


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Gatecrasher........

Fading the masses can be a profitable endeavor....look no further than last Friday night and the Mavs...or Sunday with the under Port/Tor.

It's all a crap-shoot. But sometimes the obvious is the way to play.

Hearing gsp put up a cautionary warning has me reining in my horns to a bit smaller play.

If folks are going to take the time to respond, utilize the imformation to "play" smart! ez
 

Valuist

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Hill and McGrady both over 45 minutes last night. Hill's been getting either the day off or very small minutes in the 2nd of 2 back to backs. McGrady also isn't 100% so it looks like this total is awfully high.
 

MrChristo

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Was thinking Orlando myself, ez, but the OT is scaring me.

Some info (If you don't mind ;) )

Chic: lost last 6 ATS home off 2 days rest as 'dog.
0-4 home off 2 days rest as 'dog after SU win. (av. loss 11)
2-9 home off 2 days rest as 'dog after ATS win. (av. loss 11)
Lost to Orlando in same situation last season 97-112.

Orlando: 3-1 ATS B2B away -> away (av. win 17!)

Problem is:........

League is 2-6 ATS away -> away B2B as fav off OT. (av. SU loss 1)

Will it affect tonight's game??.....Still a couple of hours to decide

:shrug:
 

THUNDER

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orlando is 9-1 there last 10 ats against the bulls, also the bulls are really laying down right now- granted they played last night and it is there 4th in 5 nights but i think they find away to win i do not now who you like but i thought i give my 2 cents- but overall it is a hard game to cap-gl tonight.
 

Celyas

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No all mentioned in his post that Miller migth be reversed to a role of a 6th man. Magic bench definatly has to start producing. Don't know if benching Miller will have the desired effect in this situation for Magic though. Hill usually sits out on a b2b games. T-Mac is hurting and if you bench a guy who's been making shots it puts a heavy load solely on T-Mac's shoulders tonite. When both Hill and T-Mac are rested and healed then bench Miller. T-Mac, Hill and Miller are the only double digits scorers for Magic. In a situation when one of them won't play and another is probable, I don't think it's a good idea to bench the third one. Just my 2 cents :D
 

B2K

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THANKS FOR ALL THE USEFUL INFO. IJUST FOUND OUT ABOUT THIS SIGHT . I ENJOY THE NBA AND JUST STARTED MAKING PLAYS ON THEM. BUT I'VE ALWAYS WATCHED THE LINES AND FOLLOWED THE GAMES. THAT IS A VERY TRICKY GAME. IWOULD TAKE THE BULLS AND THE POINTS. P.S. WHAT SIGHT DO YOU GUYS GET ALL THAT INFO ON? :shrug:
 

eztds

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Agree Celyas but...............

Agree Celyas but...............

what happened to all that...."Hill's ankle feels better if he plays everynight and gets larger minutes?"

He has been playing more recently. Goes along with what Valuist pointed out.

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Valuist....

I agree the total looks high...but...the Bulls' defense stinks. They give up more scores than a "Prom Queen"!

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MrChristo.....

Just more reasons to like Orl! BTW....that OT in Boston last night wasn't REAL intense. Both teams just trotted the floor an fired up 3's for an extra 5 minutes.

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Thunder......

You are correct Sir.....I call losing 9 of the last 10 by an average of 12.3 ppg laying down bigtime.

Da Bulls young, fresh legs aren't a huge advantage when their team has no clue on defense. They are a scoring only type mentality team......who just beat the Cavs as their "claim to fame"!

Well La-D-Da.

Orl in this game is no sure thing but looks to be the play tonight. GL Thunder. ez
 

eztds

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Valuist............

Valuist............

I just hope da Bulls aren't "queen for a day" tonight!!

Go Orlando. If Tracy, Grant, Mike, Shawn, Darrell and company will just give us all they got against this young Bulls team tonight.......then win, push or loss.....I'll be able to live with it!

tschreiber.....we're counting on ya for a diversion if need be my man. Bring this one in for us bro!

Hail Yeah.....this is some 'cappn happen'n!

GL on your plays....I'm out guys. ez
 

shamrock

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something I usually like to check after capping a game is the consensus someone mentioned earlier. I have checked 3 different consensus with all 3 favoring by 70 or more, yet the line sticks at 3, makes you think twice!

Good luck
 

amado

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i play the over my self. orlando dont play any defense, plus they are tired from yesterday, orlando over 2.1 big, big;)
 

T-roe

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i think this is one of those cases where it looks to good to be true so I am just going stay away from this game, majority of the public is on the magic and as we all know the public is usually wrong.
 
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