Orl/Chi

[Spock]

have not had time to look @ a single game for some time ..

damn work is killin me .. but then again am making $100US per day more

but away from friends and gf .. well one got to pay a price ..

All i got to say to my friend EZ is


"May we need Scotty tonight"


Good luck and
Cheers from the big apple
Spock

 

[spits]

vanbasten/.....sweet avatar!!!!. I got Jack to add it to the collection!!!!

I'm on the Magic as well tonight but they are down 16 midway through the 2nd.

Let's hope for a nice comeback!!!


SPITS

 

[eztds]

Just home.............

Just home.............

in time to see the last period of the Orl/Chi game. Didn't look like the Magic were giving it their all! Guess they were tired and they acted like it.

Hill no pts and no time??? As much as I read about this game.....nary a word that he wouldn't play tonight. Everything had him down as a starter......would not have played Orl knowing he would sit tonight.

Guess that explains why no line movement....they just kept taking Orl dollars "knowing" Hill would sit and raked in a pile.

Did ANYONE read ANYWHERE that Hill would not play tonight??

Congrats to all on the Bulls. I'm sorry I talked many into a loser. Cause that's what I feel like right now.

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

EZ...KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK...i for one check your thread every day, because its always packed with great info and selections.
most of your plays are on totals which i dont have much info to offer....but if i have something useful i will not hesitate to post it.
afterall, thats what i believe this site is all about and what makes it a great site.

one thing i thought i might add that maybe useful...i noticed a few gus who watch/follow who the public is on. i decided this yr. that i would track it, to see if betting against the public money was worthwhile. one other angle i have been tracking is to see how the public plays do when the line moves opposite of the public play.....ive done this with college footbal and it worked very nice.
anyway...heres what ive found so far this yr in nba [minus a few days here and there]......so using the consensus that wagerline provides....the public plays have gone 41-48 this yr.....no-edge.
and the plays when the line moves opposite a public play have gone 17-18...no edge....so it seems to me that worrying about being on the same side of the public is not worth worrying about at all.

for example....last nite in college.hoops the public plays were indiana,road island,e.car.,stjoe,mo.,boise,and siena.....they went undefeated 7-0...lat nite in nba.....public plays were bos,milw,no., and minny....thats 3-1 or 10-1 overall....so yes the books do lose....now tonite....looks like the books are getting some back...public was on sea.,orl., sac. and lakers...looks like 1-2 nba so far and in colege they look to be going 3-5 so far....so as far as hoops goes....i see no edge in public plays and we shouldnt let the public or consensus influence our pays......if anyone else has info/results regarding public/consensus plays.....please feel free to post it......thanks, burgh...and thanks ez for posting your plays/info.....gluck all tomorrow.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Steel,
I lost my numbers but it looked like you would have made a killing fading the public in the NBA so far. I'm gonna have to find the numbers I had but anytime you saw 59%+ and bet against it.....it was right around 60%...and I also looked at when the public was 70%+ and it was something like 10-1 if you faded over the past month. Mind you I havent looked at the past couple of days. Tonite it looks like the 70% plays would be 2-1 if you faded and 2-0 on the 59-69% plays. Personally I find it hard that you can really make money from fading someone......I mean they couldnt be any worse than a coin flip could they??? However, it is something that i will be looking at more and more.

EZ,
Love reading your opinions. Have learned a lot from the way you look at a game.
Thanks

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I have to credit Antonio as well. He put something on the boards awhile back that made me start to take a look at fading.....especially in the NBA.

 

[Celyas]

EZ, don't let this one play to influence you. You've been doing a great job and your post are always informative. Keep doing a great job, it's much appreciated here

I believe that Valuist mentioned in this thread that usually Hill sits out in a 2nd game of a b2b situation. It wasn't precisely written anywhere that he won't play, but it was pretty certain that he would sit out or at least play some insignficant minutes tonite.

 

[eztds]

Thanks for the encouragement SCS.........

Thanks for the encouragement SCS.........

sports wagering is a tough playground to run around in.

Trampled and Celyas appreciate you guys as well.
And HELLO there to you Van.....my man!

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I tend to agree with SCS on this consensus/public stuff......whatever you want to call it.

-Yes, it's a capp'n tool that can be used to sway you on particular plays.......blindly following it is not a good idea IMHO.

-If (after 'cappn a game) your marginal on that particular play.....one should use the "public" to make it a no play.

-However....and this is big guys....this playground is a game of INFORMATION!!!! How many books do you think......DIDN'T KNOW HILL WOULD NOT PLAY LAST NIGHT?

-I can say this with confidence.....that Orl -3 line would have moved up if they thought Hill would see the floor. They knew he wouldn't thus the line that "looked too good to be true".

-Books always have the edge......don't kid yourself!

-These books play "line games" and "mind games" with us on each and every game.

-'Capp your games as solidly as you can (which is MUCH...MUCH easier now than it was 10 years ago before the internet) and the books still have the upper hand with inside information.

-It's all about INFORMATION guys. That's why I get so worked up feeding stuff in here without replies. I want INFORMATION I may not have seen.

-INFORMATION is MONEY in this playground.

-Valuist had the proper INFORMATION about Hill....but....I don't think even he knew for sure Hill would be totally out of the line up last night? Did you Valuist?

-And BTW......use a club to beat me over the head when I fail to listen next time Valuist!!

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Two final things and I'm done:

1) If Doc Rivers had that as his game plan (ie. to hold Hill out or limit minutes on 2nd of b-to-b).......ISN'T IT REALLY STUPID TO FIRE HILL INTO THE BOSTON GAME THE NIGHT BEFORE AGAINST A STOUT CELTS TEAM (LOSE THAT GAME).....THEN TURN AROUND AND SIT HIM OUT AGAINST THIS WEAK BULLS TEAM (AND LOSE THAT ONE TO0).

Explain the LOGIC to me please. If I'm the owner of the Magic.....Rivers is in my office right now trying to explain that to me!!!

Rivers is STUPID and his team plays like a bunch of soft pansies at times......always losing when their 3 balls aren't dropp'n. They'll never be a championship caliber team.

2) I'm going to take some time off for a while. Just a bit weary from all the "line games" and "mind games" over the past weeks.

This loss was a bitter pill after all the work EVERYONE pulled together to accomplish. Orl was the right call with the INFORMATION we had.

Wished I'd have been at home to have seen the "pre-game" and hear that Hill was going to sit.

Did they even let the "cat-outa-the-bag" during pre-game??

Guys......take care and GL. ez