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Oscar Leaderboard: Is Jennifer Lawrence Really Going to Win Again?

<!-- google_ad_section_end --> By JJ Duncan on December 6, 2013<noscript>2013-12-06 14:24:18</noscript>





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(Sony Pictures)Jennifer Lawrence came up with a big win Tuesday when the New York Film Critics Circle named her the year's Best Supporting Actress for her work in American Hustle. She beat out two highly-touted performances ? Lupita Nyongo in 12 Years a Slave and Oprah Winfrey in The Butler ? which bodes well for her chances at picking up a few more statues this awards season.

Meanwhile Cate Blanchett's NYFCC win for Best Actress in Blue Jasmine solidified her front-runner status in the category. And Spike Jonze's Her got a boost when it was named the best movie of the year by the National Board of Review. Here's where we currently stand on each of the six core categories.

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Cate Blanchett is a huge frontrunner in this category, which is packed with awards season favorites. All five of the likely Academy nominees have already won an Oscar, and Amy Adams, who might break into the top five on the momentum of American Hustle, has been nominated four times as a supporting actress. French newcomer Adele Exarchopoulos is still a dark horse, but her vocal displeasure with Blue Is the Warmest Color makes it even less likely she'll get the nod.
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This might be the most competitive race this year with all the viable candidates turning in the kinds of performances the Academy loves. As the months-long favorite, Chiwetel Ejiofor's lead has been chipped away by a series of splashy performances. Aging stars Robert Redford and Bruce Dern will be sentimental favorites with older Academy voters since neither has ever won an acting Oscar. But the early word on The Wolf of Wall Street is that Leonardo DiCaprio's performance is going to shake up the race big time.

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Newcomer Lupita Nyongo is sitting at the top of this category, but Jennifer Lawrence just won the New York Film Critics Circle award with a show-stealing performance in American Hustle. Fans would love to see her win back-to-back Oscars, but they'd also love to see the ever-popular Oprah Winfrey walk away with a win for playing Forrest Whitaker's wife in The Butler. August: Osage County co-stars Margo Martindale and Julia Roberts are both competitive here it's likely only one will win the nod.

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Jared Leto's dramatic transformation in Dallas Buyers Club has made him a favorite here, but the competition this year is fierce. Tom Hanks could end up nominated for two Oscars this year, and voters love him. But Jonah Hill and his oversized teeth have taken a bite out of this category, and he could come away with a win. Barkhad Abdi's supporting role as the kidnapper in Captain Phillips was an early favorite, but a nomination is looking increasingly less likely. The same is true of James Gandolfini, whose romantic co-lead with Julia Louis-Dreyfus in Enough Said was his final performance.

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Alfonso Cuar?n and Steve McQueen are both auteur directors who are due every bit of praise coming their way this year, and the two will likely be battling it out for the Best Director Oscar. The Coen Brothers earned early buzz for Inside Llewyn Davis, but Martin Scorsese's epic adaptation of The Wolf of Wall Street has stolen their momentum.

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After winning so many laurels from the New York Film Critics Circle, American Hustle seems poised to give 12 Years a Slave a run for its money ? not just for Best Picture, but across the acting categories, too. Early reports say The Wolf of Wall Street is a shoo-in for a nod here, but several movies are at risk with August: Osage County waiting in the wings. Spike Jonze's Her won the National Board of Review's top honors, but might not even get a nomination at the Oscars. Also, keep an eye on Philomena. The Weinstein Company fought for its PG-13 rating to make its wide release more viable, and noted Oscar PR genius Harvey Weinstein is working hard to keep it in Academy voters' minds. Earlier this week he took out a full page ad in the New York Times with a letter from the real-life Philomena to debunk New York Post critic Kyle Smith's assertion that the film is anti-Catholic.
 

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Oscar Leaderboard: Tom Hanks' Double Nomination Looks Shaky

<!-- google_ad_section_end --> By JJ Duncan on December 12, 2013<noscript>2013-12-12 18:30:43</noscript>





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(From Sony | Buena Vista Pictures)Tom Hanks' double Oscar nomination not only seems questionable, it seems unlikely after his supporting role in Saving Mr. Banks was snubbed in both the Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe nominations this week. The beloved actor is having a very good year with two high-profile roles, and while he's still very much in the running for Best Actor, it seems even that's not secure in the most competitive category of the year.

But Hanks isn't the only actor at risk. Oprah Winfrey, Jonah Hill, and Adele Exarchopoulos all took hits this week with the SAG and Globe nominations. See how else the leaderboard has changed below.
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Cate Blanchett is the closest thing we have to a lock this early in the Oscar race. Not only did she pick up SAG and Globe nominations this week, she was also named Best Actress by the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. Meryl Streep's chances at a nod also went up as she picked up a critical SAG nod (and Amy Adams didn't). The SAG nominations arguably matter more than the Globes in the acting categories because the actors who comprise the Screen Actors Guild also constitute the largest voting block in the Academy. Adele Exarchopolous is seeming like a very long shot after being left out of both groups of nominations, and Kate Winslet will likely pick up her outsider slot in next week's leaderboard.

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Such a tough category! The competition is fierce, and the nominees are hard to pick out. One thing's for certain, the Academy will have to leave out at least one actor who deserves a nomination. Even if Tom Hanks has earned that nod, the Academy's sentimentality may leave him the odd man out. Hanks has already won the award twice while the well-loved Bruce Dern has never even been nominated, and the even better-loved Robert Redford has never won an acting Oscar. This would also be Matthew McConaughey's first nod if he makes it in, and Academy voters know he's overdue for some recognition. Add to the mix Leonardo Dicaprio's much-buzzed about performance in The Wolf of Wall Street, and all of a sudden Hanks' nomination appears to be in jeopardy. Fortunately for him, his Captain Phillips role won him SAG and Globe nominations this week.
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Lupita Nyongo is still the frontrunner here, but the race is shaping up to be a battle between her and Jennifer Lawrence. Oprah Winfrey took a hit this week when she was snubbed by the Globes, but she's still likely to be nominated in the category after winning some key SAG recognition.

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Things are looking grim for both Tom Hanks and Jonah Hill after both were left out of the Globes and SAG nominations this week. If we're being generous, their SAG snubs, at least, could be chalked up to not enough voters having seen their movies, but it still leaves them on shaky ground. With Hanks and Hill left out, Barkhad Abdi and Daniel Bruhl were both were nominated for SAG and Globe awards. But don't count out James Gandolfini who could be a sentimental dark horse. He picked up the SAG nod, which is usually the most accurate Oscar barometer. All this said, Jared Leto is still the frontrunner for the actual win, and he picked up yet another laurel from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association this week when they named him Best Supporting Actor.
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Martin Scorsese was unexpectedly left out of the Globe nominations this week, leaving the door open for Alexander Payne to slip in as a contender. We're still predicting an eventual Oscar nod for Scorsese, but he could easily lose his spot, especially with Spike Jonze seeming to pick up some momentum for Her. Ultimately, though, this race will likely come down to Alfonso Cuar?n and Steve McQueen.

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After a key Golden Globe nod, it seems Her has a good shot at make it into the Best Picture race, but a nomination for Fruitvale Station is looking less and less likely. The Butler and Saving Mr. Banks both took hits this week due to Globe snubs, which means we might even see Philomena make it into this field. Gravity and Her tied this week for the Los Angeles Film Critics Association's top honor. And while 12 Years a Slave still looks to be the frontrunner, the win could slip away if momentum begins to favor either Gravity or American Hustle.
 

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American Hustle:shrug:


who has seen it..

does it match this underground swell for possible upset and movie of the year:SIB
 

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latest update


Oscar Leaderboard: Let's Just Give Cate Blanchett Her Oscar Right Now

<!-- google_ad_section_end --> By JJ Duncan on December 19, 2013<noscript>2013-12-19 17:30:44</noscript>





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(Getty Images)Cate Blanchett is winning an Oscar this year. She just is. She's winning honor after honor for her work in Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine with nearly no dissenting opinions on her lead in the Best Actress race, and she can pretty much start picking out a place for her statue now. Consensus is nearly as universal in the Best Actor category, where Chiwetel Ejiofor seems poised to walk away with an Oscar for 12 Years a Slave. But not everything is set in stone yet. Jared Leto is the clear frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor, but the nominations are pure chaos, with James Franco even seeming to have a decent shot at an Oscar nod.

This week's race was shaped by new nominations from the Critics' Choice Awards and the London Critics Circle Film Awards, as well as top honors announced by the San Francisco Film Critics Circle, the Black Film Critics Circle, and the Toronto Film Critics Association.

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Not much movement in this category, and the five contenders seem all but set in stone. It'll take some serious campaigning or some viral word-of-mouth buzz to change this top five, but Amy Adams' flashy American Hustle role is sure to win over fans who go to see the movie this weekend. Cate Blanchett won yet another laurel for her Blue Jasmine performance, this time from the San Francisco Film Critics Circle. Brie Larson was honored this week by the Black Film Critics Circle, who unexpectedly named her Best Actress. It could mean a viable longshot campaign for the young indie actress yet.

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Chiwetel Ejiofor's status as Best Actor frontrunner was solidified yet further with honors this week from the San Francisco Film Critics Circle, the Black Film Critics Circle, and the London Critics' Circle Awards. Those same London critics snubbed Robert Redford in their nominations ? maybe because the Brits don't feel the same affinity for the American icon. Christian Bale picked up a vital Critics' Choice nomination, which could mean he's the real sixth man in this race.

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Lupita Nyongo and Jennifer Lawrence seem to be splitting up the film critics' honors as they go along. Lawrence won the San Francisco Film Critics Circle award while Nyongo (still considered the frontrunner) was honored by the Black Film Critics Circle. Like the Best Actress category, this top five is looking fairly certain heading into next month's nominations.

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Jared Leto is a very strong frontrunner here, but the Supporting Actor category is the most volatile of them all with only two spots locked down. With only Leto and Michael Fassbender seeming to be sure things, we could see any of the other actors listed above, or even James Gandolfini, making it into the Oscar race. James Franco picked up a win from the San Francisco Film Critics Circle, so maybe his "Consider This S---" awards campaign really is taking off.

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Alfonso Cuaron was named Best Director by the San Francisco Film Critics Circle, and he's really the candidate to beat in this race. David O. Russell was snubbed by the London Critics Circle, but don't read too much into it. American Hustle will almost assuredly win him a nomination. Meanwhile Spike Jonze continues to look like the strongest dark horse after picking up a Critics' Choice nomination for Her.

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After yet another snub, this time from the Critics' Choice Awards, The Butler's chances at a Best Picture nod are looking slim. Right now Her and Blue Jasmine seem to be the biggest beneficiaries of some of the shuffling around in this category, though Dallas Buyers Club could end up in the race, too. 12 Years a Slave is still pretty far ahead of the pack, but both Gravity and American Hustle seem poised to give it a run for its money.
 

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Oscar Leaderboard: Evaluating Christian Bale, Meryl Streep and Everyone Else Running in Last Place

<!-- google_ad_section_end --> By JJ Duncan on February 15, 2014<noscript>2014-02-15 12:03:38</noscript>





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Christian Bale, Meryl Streep, Jonah Hill. (Getty Images)Not everyone who deserves an Oscar gets one. Every year at least a few poor, really deserving, souls are forced to smile politely for the cameras while a rival walks to the stage and takes sometimes the only real shot they'll ever have at Oscar greatness. It's tough, but that's life.

Of course, for every one of those near misses there are many more also-rans who never had a shot and were reminded constantly, by any media outlet bothering to speculate, that they never had a shot. We imagine that loss is a little easier to take, but it's still an emotional roller coaster that leaves nominees holding out hope in the moments before the envelope is opened and they're finally put out of their misery. At least they'll have fun at the Governor's Ball, right?

So this week's Oscar Leaderboard is dedicated to those nominees who never were going to win ? like Jane Campion the year Steven Spielberg won for Schindler's List. This week we highlight the Oscar nominees so firmly in fifth place they can't even be called long shots with a straight face. Our mascot, without a doubt, is Sally Hawkins. Sorry, Sally. It's just not your year.

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For years Meryl Streep was the perennial also-ran. Yes, she's won three Oscars, but she's been nominated a record 18 times. She finally broke her dry spell with The Iron Lady, but August: Osage County is not the movie that's going to win her another Oscar. Cate Blanchett and Amy Adams are our top picks for the category, and Meryl, with her overly theatrical performance, is the most obvious fodder alongside two other previous winners: Judi Dench and Sandra Bullock. Meryl always sort of feels like a threat, but this year she could get up to go to the bathroom five minutes before the Best Actress winner is announced and she wouldn't miss a thing except a chance to once again show how sincerely warm she is in her congratulations of the night's real winner.

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It's nearly impossible to take your eyes off Christian Bale in American Hustle, but he's up against a very competitive field with a very clear frontrunner in Matthew McConaughey. Bale won his first Oscar three years ago for The Fighter, another David O. Russell movie where he got to try out a very different character. With a history of dramatic body transformations, no one questions his commitment, but this year he's the most obvious fifth place. In fact he's probably the only nominee that Oscar pundits haven't speculated about stealing the award come the big night.

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As Cate Blanchett's put-upon yet accommodating sister in Blue Jasmine, Sally Hawkins holds her own across from the performance of the year. Unfortunately for her, the role just isn't flashy enough to compete against Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave or Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle. It was a surprise when Hawkins won the nomination over Oprah Winfrey's performance in The Butler, but no one thinks she'll be able to pull off an upset for a win.

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As a thoroughly debauched young stock broker, Jonah Hill must be seen to be believed in The Wolf of Wall Street. The role's got all the panache generally required of a Best Supporting Actor win, but this is the year of Jared Leto. He's won the Globe, the SAG, and a slew of critics' awards for his part in Dallas Buyers Club, and if Academy voters did decide to give it to someone else it would probably go to either Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave or newcomer Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips.

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Alexander Payne has been making smart, creative movies for the last 20 or so years, and one of these days he really will get the win he deserves. But this is Alfonso Cuar?n's year. He's already won the Director's Guild award and the Golden Globe, and the only foreseeable way he would lose the Oscar is if 12 Years a Slave wins a sweep in all the major categories. Payne was a surprise nominee, and he's very much a fifth-place contender for Director.

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Spike Jonze's Her has won its share of critics prizes, but none of the major awards. It's awesome to see his work honored with a nomination, but it's telling that Her isn't nominated in any other major category. With nine nominees for Best Picture, Jonze is heading to the Oscars to collect his gift bag and smile and clap for the likely winner: 12 Years a Slave.





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JJ Duncan
I'm the Senior Editor for movies on Zimbio.com, which means I spend way too much time thinking about the geekiest possible ways to approach the cineplex. I'm also hopelessly addicted to audio books. Follow me: Twitter | Google
 
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