This is obviously all moot if they lose on Saturday.
From ESPN.com
The bizarre nature of the BCS Standings should be further exposed on Monday afternoon, when Ohio State will likely take over the No. 2 overall spot despite being ranked No. 4 in both polls of human voters.
Every team ranked in the BCS top 10 was victorious Saturday, so there wasn't expected to be much shakeup in this week's standings. But as we've observed time and time again, these rankings don't operate like the traditional polls. Teams can (and often do) fall after a win. This week, it was USC and TCU who fell.
Southern California's lead on Ohio State was almost a point and a half last week, but that evaporated because of the strength of OSU's weekend opponent (Purdue) compared with the weakness of USC's opponent (Arizona). The Buckeyes gained enough ground in the computer and schedule-strength elements of the BCS formula to more than offset the two-point advantage USC holds over them in average poll ranking.
The biggest surprise came from The New York Times' computer, which unexpectedly dropped the once-beaten Trojans from third to fifth. Texas (9-2) is No. 3 in those ratings, and Florida (8-3) is No. 4.
Fortunately for USC, it doesn't have any more games against teams as bad as Arizona. Unfortunately for the Trojans, Ohio State's final opponent (Michigan) is even stronger than Purdue. If the Buckeyes win that game, they will likely remain at No. 2 in the following week's BCS Standings.
The Battle For No. 2
For several weeks now, I've been saying that USC is vulnerable to getting jumped by a team ranked third in both polls. But now it's possible they will be overtaken by Ohio State even if the Buckeyes stay fourth in both polls.
OSU currently has an advantage of 0.96 on USC in schedule-strength points, which might not be too far from what the margin will be at the end of the season. I expect it would be about 0.6 at the very least.
Many factors still need to sort themselves out, but this much is certain: A Michigan win on Saturday will greatly reduce the stress levels of fans in Southern California.
The Buckeyes also have a lead of slightly more than a full point over the Trojans in computer average this week, which combined with schedule-strength numbers, enables them to offset the two-point deficit to USC in the polls.
But if the poll deficit stays at two spots, Ohio State might need to increase its advantage in the computers to hold off USC at the end of the season. The Trojans' quality-win bonus for beating Washington State could improve from one-tenth to as much as four-tenths of a point if the Cougars finish 10-2, and right now, that would be enough to push USC back to No. 2 in the BCS.
That, however, might be the best-case scenario for the Trojans. What if Washington beats WSU and leaves USC with no bonus points? And perhaps an even more frightening question for Southern California: What if Ohio State gains an even greater edge in the computers?
That was a possibility I hadn't given much thought until seeing LSU move ahead of USC into third place in this week's BCS version of Kenneth Massey's ratings. (In fairness to Massey, it should be pointed out that his original version, which uses margin of victory, has USC at No. 2 in the nation.) If teams with two and three losses can jump USC in The New York Times, why couldn't LSU do it in a few computers?
BCS Standings Projections
1. Oklahoma
2. Ohio State
3. Southern California
4. LSU
5. Texas
6. Georgia
7. Tennessee
8. TCU
9. Michigan
10. Washington State
From ESPN.com
The bizarre nature of the BCS Standings should be further exposed on Monday afternoon, when Ohio State will likely take over the No. 2 overall spot despite being ranked No. 4 in both polls of human voters.
Every team ranked in the BCS top 10 was victorious Saturday, so there wasn't expected to be much shakeup in this week's standings. But as we've observed time and time again, these rankings don't operate like the traditional polls. Teams can (and often do) fall after a win. This week, it was USC and TCU who fell.
Southern California's lead on Ohio State was almost a point and a half last week, but that evaporated because of the strength of OSU's weekend opponent (Purdue) compared with the weakness of USC's opponent (Arizona). The Buckeyes gained enough ground in the computer and schedule-strength elements of the BCS formula to more than offset the two-point advantage USC holds over them in average poll ranking.
The biggest surprise came from The New York Times' computer, which unexpectedly dropped the once-beaten Trojans from third to fifth. Texas (9-2) is No. 3 in those ratings, and Florida (8-3) is No. 4.
Fortunately for USC, it doesn't have any more games against teams as bad as Arizona. Unfortunately for the Trojans, Ohio State's final opponent (Michigan) is even stronger than Purdue. If the Buckeyes win that game, they will likely remain at No. 2 in the following week's BCS Standings.
The Battle For No. 2
For several weeks now, I've been saying that USC is vulnerable to getting jumped by a team ranked third in both polls. But now it's possible they will be overtaken by Ohio State even if the Buckeyes stay fourth in both polls.
OSU currently has an advantage of 0.96 on USC in schedule-strength points, which might not be too far from what the margin will be at the end of the season. I expect it would be about 0.6 at the very least.
Many factors still need to sort themselves out, but this much is certain: A Michigan win on Saturday will greatly reduce the stress levels of fans in Southern California.
The Buckeyes also have a lead of slightly more than a full point over the Trojans in computer average this week, which combined with schedule-strength numbers, enables them to offset the two-point deficit to USC in the polls.
But if the poll deficit stays at two spots, Ohio State might need to increase its advantage in the computers to hold off USC at the end of the season. The Trojans' quality-win bonus for beating Washington State could improve from one-tenth to as much as four-tenths of a point if the Cougars finish 10-2, and right now, that would be enough to push USC back to No. 2 in the BCS.
That, however, might be the best-case scenario for the Trojans. What if Washington beats WSU and leaves USC with no bonus points? And perhaps an even more frightening question for Southern California: What if Ohio State gains an even greater edge in the computers?
That was a possibility I hadn't given much thought until seeing LSU move ahead of USC into third place in this week's BCS version of Kenneth Massey's ratings. (In fairness to Massey, it should be pointed out that his original version, which uses margin of victory, has USC at No. 2 in the nation.) If teams with two and three losses can jump USC in The New York Times, why couldn't LSU do it in a few computers?
BCS Standings Projections
1. Oklahoma
2. Ohio State
3. Southern California
4. LSU
5. Texas
6. Georgia
7. Tennessee
8. TCU
9. Michigan
10. Washington State
