OU 14 at Wrigley?

[a-train]

Ok--if this is a trap you got me
I know the Ump is an over Ump but his games are only averaging 11. Wind is only blowing 10-15 mph out to right, these two teams are among the worst hitting teams in baseball, and the Cubs have to have a game to go over 14 this year.
Under 14 Canbet
This also has to be a textbook play for Nolan's hedge system
A

 

[Valuist]

I was just going to post about this. The only trap here is what the LV linemakers are making for themselves. I follow Wrigley totals closely; they look at wind more than anything. If its blowing in, they'll slap a 7, 7.5 or 8. If its blowing out, its anywhere from 11.5 to 14. The 14 here is ridiculous for a number of reasons:

1. I work about 4 miles south of the park and was outside not too long ago. There's a wind, but its hardly the gale force this absurd # would have you believe.

2. These are the 2 worst hitting teams in the NL: Cubs .229 BA and .371 SP; Pitt is .227 BA and .344 SP.

3. BOTH starting pitchers tend to get their fair share of both strikeouts and groundballs; Clement 47 IP, 52 Ks 51 GB outs only 34 FB outs. Benson is around .77 K/IP in his career with about 3 GB/2 FB outs. Obviously, the pencil pushers in Nevada overlooked this.

4. Day game after a night game may lead to a slight under bias.

5. Overreaction to HP ump Cedarstrom, who has been an over machine but not even he is likely to push this over the total.

 

[Heyward]

Yeah, when I was looking at this game last night, I was thinking Over, but I was assuming with the bad hitting, the line would be 9.5 or 10 at the most. I think I'm going the other way at 13.5.

 

[a-train]

Valuist
Thanks for the feedback
Agree 100% with you and playing this for my personal unit maximum
One more angle for us--with a home team favorite and good closer there is a decent chance this becomes and 8.5 and not 9 innning game
Also adding a Nolan Dalla Special
Cubbies -1.5 +150
Pitt +112
GL to us
A
:bigun:

 

[TJBELL]

GREAT POINTS GUYS!!!!

ON THE UNDER TOO! GOOD LUCK AND THANKS!!

 

[ddubs]

Damn men! Are they playing at Coors, with last year's baseball?? 14 is ridiculous. I'm all over it with you guys.

BTW, the Cubbies have been involved in 14 one-run games this year. LOST 10 of them !!!!!!!!!!

Good Luck!!

 

[Theboundbook]

Took under for 1.5 units.

 

[thunderdoll]

Great info. I'm in for one unit on the under.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Defintely meets the criteria for a hedge play......

CHICAGO (-1.5) +150
PITTSBURGH +115

$200 bet on each side.


-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Jackals]

Lets hope that the bullpen tightens down. 9 runs in the top of the 6th....:shrug: :shrug:

 

[no all]

I'm with ya jackal