This is my first football post here at MadJacks - I have been watching you guys for awhile and appreciate all the good insight. I have a theory on bad football teams and the home/road pointspreads.
I think that there is value betting the huge road favorite in a game like this for two reasons.
1) The line is adjusted a bit for Baylor playing at home - evidenced by the fact that they were getting 41 at Texas last week. However, when Baylor plays OU at home, there will be just as many OU fans in attendance as Baylor fans. This won't be quite as evident as the OU at Tulsa game, but it still won't be an advantage for Baylor.
2) And this is the most important reason. When teams play on the road, they are limited in the number of players that can travel. Therefore, you're not going to see walk-ons and 5th stringers in for the 2nd half. Teams are forced to play their better players more. Teams at home, by contrast, will get everybody into the game, and thus reduce their chances of scoring in the 2nd half. Texas was up 31-0 at half last week and only won 41-0. Colorado was up 34-0 at home against Baylor and won 34-0.
Thus, I think there is value here - and I look for OU to beat Baylor by more than Texas did last week. Just my opinion, and I hope it works out. Any thoughts?
I think that there is value betting the huge road favorite in a game like this for two reasons.
1) The line is adjusted a bit for Baylor playing at home - evidenced by the fact that they were getting 41 at Texas last week. However, when Baylor plays OU at home, there will be just as many OU fans in attendance as Baylor fans. This won't be quite as evident as the OU at Tulsa game, but it still won't be an advantage for Baylor.
2) And this is the most important reason. When teams play on the road, they are limited in the number of players that can travel. Therefore, you're not going to see walk-ons and 5th stringers in for the 2nd half. Teams are forced to play their better players more. Teams at home, by contrast, will get everybody into the game, and thus reduce their chances of scoring in the 2nd half. Texas was up 31-0 at half last week and only won 41-0. Colorado was up 34-0 at home against Baylor and won 34-0.
Thus, I think there is value here - and I look for OU to beat Baylor by more than Texas did last week. Just my opinion, and I hope it works out. Any thoughts?
