Outback Steakhouse

Clive

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Managed to get quite involved in this event, which I suppose should be renamed the Bruce Fleisher Open, as he has owned it in recent years.

Fleisher is 12/1, which is fair enough. Difficult to see him not being involved.

Also gone for Pooley at a too big 66 with SJ, Hatalsky at 40, Quigley 33 and local Jim Dent at a speculative 150/1

The main interest has to be how Mark McNulty plays..he could completely dominate this tour, but his play over the winter in SA has been poor, and it may be best to watch him this week.

Hopefully he will start slowly as I've got a decent bet on Stadler to win the money list at 8/1.
 

Stanley

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Outright plays (2 units):

Larry Nelson to win 25/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Nelson is a former winner of this event (1999) and has displayed some good and improving form in the three events of the season so far. He was only one shot outside the playoff last week and would have coasted to victory, but for his second round 75 (Stadler shot 67). In this form, he could make amends.

Dana Quigley to win 28/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Quigley went even higher in the second round last week - 78. After opening with a 69 and having finished 2nd in both the previous events on the Tour this season, he can certainly be excused for taking a breather and not trying as hard over the weekend. But this week he returns to a course on which he has finished in the top-10 in each of the last four years and if he can maintain some of the form he has displayed for most of this season, he will certainly make it five top-10 finishes in a row at the TPC of Tampa Bay. 33/1 is available at Bet365 and SIA, but only 4 places.

Wayne Levi to win 40/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Levi did win the 3M Championship last season and has had good chances to win either of the last two events. He had been the leader with just one round to play in the Royal Caribbean Classic, but shot 75 to finish 5th, while he faired better in the final round last week to finish just two shots out of the playoff. He has played this course once and secured a top-15 finish (he had been 4th after two rounds), so these do look generous odds. Stan James even offer 50/1 for Levi, but with more near misses than hits, we might need the extra place available with SkyBet.
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (2pts unless stated):

Bruce Fleisher to beat Mark McNulty -111 @ Centrebet
McNulty finished the 2003 in great form with a 2nd place finish in the European Open and two top-20 finishes in his last three events on the European Tour. But having missed the cut in the South African Open and finished only 40th in the Dunhill Championship, there may be some questions marks over whether he will take this Tour by storm, or at least not just yet. With no course form, he may find, like many before him, that the Champions Tour is more competitive than he thought. At this stage of his Champions Tour career, he is being opposed with players who have proven current and course form. Fleisher is definitely in this camp with one win from three starts this year and a very impressive record in this event: 5 starts, 2 wins and no finishes outside the top-3. McNulty at his best would struggle to match Fleisher on this course.

Gil Morgan to beat Mark McNulty -105 @ Five Dimes [4pts]
Morgan hasn't won this event, but he did finish 2nd in 2001 alongside Fleisher and while he hasn't won an event this year either, he has finished in the top-10 in all three events. Just can't see him being the underdog in this matchup until McNulty proves himself on this Tour.

John Jacobs to beat Gary Koch -110 @ Five Dimes [4 pts]
Backing Jacobs in a matchup is a rarity, but this is a special circumstance. Koch should have won last week's event. He had daylight between himself and the rest of the field in the final nine holes and he shot two-over-par for the last five holes and went back to the pack, whereupon he duly lost the playoff. Having never even securing a top-10 finish in his previous twenty starts on the Champions Tour, this collapse will surely have an effect this week. He also struggled badly to finish 78th (of 81) last year, shooting 83 in the 2nd round, so a repeat of last week's course record appears extremely unlikely. With finishes of 9th, 5th and 15th in his three starts this year, Jacobs should have a decent event, but either way, there should be plenty of space between these two on the leaderboard.

Tom Purtzer to beat Sam Torrance -110 @ SIA
Siding with the player who has two years' course experience against none and who has looked in good form this year, despite pulling a stomach muscle when in contention for the Royal Caribbean Classic. Torrance's finishes of 29th and 53rd this year suggest that he will not be a contender on his debut on this course.

1st round plays (2pts unless stated):

Larry Nelson to beat D.A. Weibring -118 @ Five Dimes
John Jacobs to beat Gary Koch -115 @ Five Dimes [4pts]
Jose Maria Canizares to beat Ed Fiori -115 @ Five Dimes
 

Trampled Underfoot

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Have to agree with Fleisher. I havent been following golf that long but I dont think i've ever seen course form like that.

I played Fleisher a few days ago at 14 and have played him all the way down to 10. My average was 12.

Fleisher 2.5u ew 12-1 :D
 

lostinamerica

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I was leaning to a play on Quigley only, but I became indecisive about that avenue when I saw Stan's choices mirrored my own Top 3. In the final analysis, I went back and looked again, and then figured I would be hard pressed to do better. GL to us.

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/02/20/Sports/Pros_hope_to_avoid_th.shtml



OUTRIGHTS:

Dana Quigley(33/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365

Wayne Levi(33/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365

Larry Nelson(22/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365

GL
 

Stanley

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1st round update: 2-1-0; +3.70 pts

Nelson/Weibring WON by 4
Jacobs/Koch WON by 4
Canizares/Fiori LOST by 2

2nd round plays (2pts unless stated):

Bruce Fleisher to beat Mark McNulty -115 @ Five Dimes
Allen Doyle to beat D.A. Weibring -115 @ Five Dimes [4pts]
Bob Gilder to beat Sam Torrance -115 @ Five Dimes [4pts]
 

Stanley

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Outrights - Final update: 1-2; +1.25pts

Nelson 2nd
Quigley 20th
Levi 27th

Nelson was 2nd by a shot at the end of every single round, but never took the lead off McNulty once he had relinquished it on Saturday. Quigley had a good chance of a place win until a triple-bogey on the 11th hole.

3rd round update: 0-1-0; -2.10 pts

Morgan/McNulty LOST by 2

Matchups - Final update: 5-6-0; -1.72pts

Fleisher/McNulty LOST by 6
Morgan/McNulty LOST by 5
Jacobs/Koch WON by 2
Purtzer/Torrance WON by 10

Disappointing to have opposed McNulty who won the event. It only took him 18 holes to fully adapt to this Tour.

Champions Tour ytd
Matchups - 19-19; -8.36pts
Outrights - 3-9; -6.50pts
 
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